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Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

North Balti Zen

By North Balti Zen,
in Mid Atlantic

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
Just now, feloniousq said:

That RGEM map was funny.  I envision some guy standing in a Gorton's fisherman suit on the sunny coast of Maine wagging his fist at 6 inches falling just offshore.

People in Maine don't give a sh*t.  All they do is just wait for the next storm that they know is coming.

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cae

cae

Posted
Posted

In situations with borderline temps I find that the Kuchera ratio maps on pivotal weather are often more useful than the TT maps.  According to those maps, the latest GFS gives no snow to nearly the entire state of Maryland, and the 12z NAM thinks the GFS is way too generous.

The GGEM has been showing a roughly 0"-3" N/S gradient across Maryland for the last couple of days, but today it cut back to 2" along the northern parts of the state.  A step towards the GFS?  The RGEM is similar to the GGEM.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

then why bother tracking this so called event any longer, let it go

taking 2 minutes to skim through a model run just to see whats up isnt really tracking.  I do that just about everyday out of habit.  Better question.  What is a bigger waste of time my weather tracking or your complaining about my weather tracking in a thread about weather tracking?

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

LOL at euro and this whole thing, 12z ec has basically no snow all the way up to Harrisburg PA.  Even north of there its pathetic.  The "thump" if you even want to call it that is now up northern PA and upstate NY. 

12z really isn't much different than 0z as far as front end frozen. Slightly less for southern PA.

They both suck.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

12z really isn't much different than 0z as far as front end frozen. Slightly less for southern PA.

They both suck.

none of the runs have been all that different from the run before.  That might have made this even more painful its been a SLOW bleed for 4 days now.  It looked best when it was about 7 days out.  Since then everything has just shifted ever so slightly worse each run.  A 10 mile shift here or there.  The GGEM started the furthest south and so it took the longest to become awful but its there now.  Euro started the north shift first so it got to awful first.  But all of them have just slowly killed us 10 miles at a time each run.  I would rather they had just pulled the band aid off in one run like often happens then this slow bleeding to death crap all week.  I am totally over it and just laughing about the whole thing at this point, I was just pointing out how even places well to our north are now out of the game for anything significant. 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

The Euro has been the worst with this.  The GFS has been really consistent with its low placement.  The only real change has been the speed of the cold leaving.

Still a long way out though.  You never know.

I would love to wish for some good luck on Sunday afternoon, but my head tells me to forget that notion.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

none of the runs have been all that different from the run before.  That might have made this even more painful its been a SLOW bleed for 4 days now.  It looked best when it was about 7 days out.  Since then everything has just shifted ever so slightly worse each run.  A 10 mile shift here or there.  The GGEM started the furthest south and so it took the longest to become awful but its there now.  Euro started the north shift first so it got to awful first.  But all of them have just slowly killed us 10 miles at a time each run.  I would rather they had just pulled the band aid off in one run like often happens then this slow bleeding to death crap all week.  I am totally over it and just laughing about the whole thing at this point, I was just pointing out how even places well to our north are now out of the game for anything significant. 

Really, the 7 day snow storms have always been prevalent during NINA's. We've probably just forgotten because it's been a while since we had a NINA. OTOH, even 12/95 only dropped 2.3" at BWI, and most of that came with one event that fell as sleet for 50%+ of it. We've got to accept the fact that climo-wise, JAN is the make or break for NINA's around here. So we just have to get through the next couple of weeks until it arrives.

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Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

in DC I would say 50/50

My best shot was last night and that failed lol.

These setups are brutal, with a runner of a High, bad low track, and hoping the moisture arrives before the column goes to hell. I never invest much emotionally in these types of deals. Almost always lose the cold aloft and at the surface on the coastal plain before good precip gets in.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

My best shot was last night and that failed lol.

These setups are brutal, with a runner of a High, bad low track, and hoping the moisture arrives before the column goes to hell. I never invest much emotionally in these types of deals. Almost always lose the cold aloft and at the surface on the coastal plain before good precip gets in.

Can't score on lows that are a 1000 miles away.  They have to be closer, TN valley at best, OH valley at worst.  There is very little precip early with this thing. 0.1" of precip ain't much of a thump of any kind.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Really, the 7 day snow storms have always been prevalent during NINA's. We've probably just forgotten because it's been a while since we had a NINA. OTOH, even 12/95 only dropped 2.3" at BWI, and most of that came with one event that fell as sleet for 50%+ of it. We've got to accept the fact that climo-wise, JAN is the make or break for NINA's around here. So we just have to get through the next couple of weeks until it arrives.

Are we in a Nina though?  It's been 2 weeks but last I checked the ENSO was almost dead neutral, I think it was like -.3, honestly thats about as neutral as you can get, and the SOI was averaging slightly on the Nino side of neutral actually.  I think we are looking at an enso neutral year here, not saying that really helps us any, but not sure we can blame nina for this one.

ETA:  also snowfall in one specific location can miss the larger pattern, in 95 BWI had little snow before the blizzard but up here was already around 20" going into January.  Even where I lived near Dulles VA that year we had several decent 2-4" type snows in November and December that year that just missed the actual cities.  This feels very different.  I would be much more optimistic if the cities were missing but there was at least snow in the area.  That bodes better for the winter on a whole. 

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Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Can't score on lows that are a 1000 miles away.  They have to be closer, TN valley at best, OH valley at worst.  There is very little precip early with this thing. 0.1" of precip ain't much of a thump of any kind.

Yeah in this case there really is no "good precip" on the front end.

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It held too much energy back. That along with the cold boundary being north of where it was supposed to be killed us here. 

every trend that we need to go our way in the past 1-2 days went the exact opposite way. LOL

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