nesussxwx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 32 minutes ago, RedSky said: Difficult to decide if I want to pull an all nighter or get up early for the snow. Glenn made it more difficult saying there would be two parts to the snow with a lull in-between. I could see the best snow waiting until before the change to mix say 6-9am. Then again the best snow could be over at 7am. It's like the worst possible timing for a snow geek. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Digging the 0z NAM or should I say shoveling it bumped my yard to 5", but numbers near the same everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 3k NAM has Philly 4-4 1/2" and the northern portion of our area snow to mid-day. Wow with a colder run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 These newest model runs are making me excited. Should they?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Digging the 0z NAM or should I say shoveling it bumped my yard to 5", but numbers near the same everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 On 12/15/2016 at 1:49 PM, RedSky said: One GFS ensemble has an Eagles snow game repeat, just throwing it out there for the optimistic one in a million crowd. Ok back to tracking for this sucky winter. Ensemble member e16 for FTW Alex ok it's JUST the NAM we need more support never bet the house on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 So maybe I am misunderstanding something... but whats with the discrepancies between the pivotal weather 00z NAM 3km run... and the Tropical Tidbits 00z NAM 3k run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Already up to 31 on SSW winds. I bet I don't get a below freezing day this week. Yesterday had a midnight high of 40 and tonight will likely soar past 32 in an hour or so. Good luck to you guys up north and inland. My daughter is on a snowboard trip in the Poconos. I hope they get 4-6" fresh snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 17, 2016 Author Share Posted December 17, 2016 Really not liking the trends here this evening....if you like snow not looking good - if you like ice (I do NOT!) I think we get a very quick transition over from Snow to ZR.....could really be a problem out in the higher ridges here in Western Chesco and Berks counties. Drive carefully early AM tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 17, 2016 Author Share Posted December 17, 2016 That NAM posted above was kind of bogus with a lot of the ZR counted as snow look at the below this is much more realistic using the Kuchera method - not too much snow below NE PA....I think this is a good representation of where this is going. Snow will be minor....ice could be a problem especially along ridges here in NW Chesco and Berks County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 17, 2016 Author Share Posted December 17, 2016 51 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hey Steve see below - that map is a bit faulty....highly unlikely to verify see the K map I posted below - much more realistic!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 2 hours ago, RedSky said: Difficult to decide if I want to pull an all nighter or get up early for the snow. Glenn made it more difficult saying there would be two parts to the snow with a lull in-between. I could see the best snow waiting until before the change to mix say 6-9am. Then again the best snow could be over at 7am. It's like the worst possible timing for a snow geek. My plan is to sleep from 11 to 3 or 4. While I really enjoy the anticipation and watching things develop/progress, this one is a bit too dicey to pull an all nighter for. Plus I do need some sleep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 6 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: My plan is to sleep from 11 to 3 or 4. While I really enjoy the anticipation and watching things develop/progress, this one is a bit too dicey to pull an all nighter for. Plus I do need some sleep! I just pulled a 1.5/2 hr snooze. I'm probably in for the duration (till it turns to rain)...then another quick snooze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 recent AFD from Mt Holly pretty interesting reading, sounds like it could get nasty out this way for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: umm yeah Ill pass on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not gonna happen. If the snow is short lived and it changes to ZR, during heavy rates the latent heat release will bring the surface above 32 quickly. Models do not do well in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Good amount of unknowns with this unfolding system. For one thing we got NAM'd and the pivotal maps are unrealistically high, the Kuchera on the other hand is underdone. For another radar and surface observations point to a later start. Always want an early start time or these don't go well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Good amount of unknowns with this unfolding system. For one thing we got NAM'd and the pivotal maps are unrealistically high, the Kuchera on the other hand is underdone. For another radar and surface observations point to a later start. Always want an early start time or these don't go well. A storm delayed is a storm denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Latest HRR weak sauce with the snow 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 With the RGEM cutting back accumulation potential not a good trend at game time maybe all the colder and colder runs today were a head fake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Latest HRR weak sauce with the snow 1-2" Well the hrrr was spitting out 20" last weekend and I got 1" so I'll take that as a good sign. Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Some stuff building from the SW. Not sure if it's virga? But should know soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Light snow just starting up here. Dusting on road. Here we goSent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhotdog Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 I'm in Souderton guys. Light dusting on the cars. It has started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Gotta a coating here...steady light snow. 24.2F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 That band out in Lancaster should do us good. Pittsburgh reporting ZR Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Not liking how the NWS ice updates are trending 4:05am discussion excerpt: "One note: we`ve been on the edge to warn portions of southeast Pennsylvania including Berks County where the heaviest ice accumulations may occur. For us, it wasn`t a lock to have widespread one quarter inch of ice accretion so we`ve played the advisory message consistently. Hopefully the information provided signals the more serious nature of this event near I-78 this morning." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Not gonna happen. If the snow is short lived and it changes to ZR, during heavy rates the latent heat release will bring the surface above 32 quickly. Models do not do well in this setupMost of the time, yes. However as I mentioned several times, the heaviest band will be out by the change to fzra which ended up as heavy snow here then briefly sleet. Also temps are at 22F now with light fzra and sleet mix. NWS now on board for a significant icing potential Bucks County on N and W. With a record breaking 500mb height anomaly advecting cold air into the region, I stated this was unchartered territory and also mentioned the surface wave off the S NJ coast as a player yet you completely disregarded my thoughts and ideas. Enjoy your icing sir...we have a solid 4 hours of this mess remaining here then maybe a brief flip to rain as temps rise over 32 finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Most of the time, yes. However as I mentioned several times, the heaviest band will be out by the change to fzra which ended up as heavy snow here then briefly sleet. Also temps are at 22F now with light fzra and sleet mix. NWS now on board for a significant icing potential Bucks County on N and W. With a record breaking 500mb height anomaly advecting cold air into the region, I stated this was unchartered territory and also mentioned the surface wave off the S NJ coast as a player yet you completely disregarded my thoughts and ideas. Enjoy your icing sir. It's already changing to sleet here and the heavy precip is inbound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.