Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 18z NAM is certainly interesting. Has a surface LP reflection South of Cape May at 12z Saturday that heads ENE....keeps the cold locked in a bit longer. Nice jump in snowfall accums on the 12km NAM from a general 1-3" to a 2-5" over SE PA with more significant icing now than prior runs N and W burbs. Brief flip to plain rain where Im located before dryslotted with drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Anyone willing to speak to potential ice... nws mt holly seems to have upped their projections and talk of "major icing event west of the city" in the nyc metro sub. Edit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 4 minutes ago, Tibet said: Anyone willing to speak to potential ice... nws mt holly seems to have upped their projections and talk of "major icing event west of the city" in the nyc metro sub. where did you see that quote from mt holly? I see them stating some areas well to the north possibly getting to warning criteria of 2 tenths of an inch, but no discussion of "major" icing. Their latest icing graphic shows minimal icing in most areas (less tan tenth of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: where did you see that quote from mt holly? I see them stating some areas well to the north possibly getting to warning criteria of 2 tenths of an inch, but no discussion of "major" icing. Their latest icing graphic shows minimal icing in most areas (less tan tenth of an inch. Sorry I did a poor job of wording it. To clarify. 1) NWS Mt Holly seems to have upped their projections 2) Talk of "major icing event west of the city" in the nyc metro sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Reminiscent of 1994. Cold air mass erosion under forecast. Not saying a repeat will happen but we do have the lowest December 500mb heights in the Northeast since 1948. Kind of unchartered territory. Im not calling for a crippling ice event, I just think the cold will win out a bit longer than many conservative outlets are suggesting.Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Latent heat...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Reminiscent of 1994. Cold air mass erosion under forecast. Not saying a repeat will happen but we do have the lowest December 500mb heights in the Northeast since 1948. Kind of unchartered territory. Im not calling for a crippling ice event, I just think the cold will win out a bit longer than many conservative outlets are suggesting. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk I remember as a kid how horrible those ice storms were. I had a bad one a couple years ago in 2014 in west chester pa, got about .5-.75 of ice, had now power for a week. I know its so wrong of me, but I feel like major ice storms are so rare, I always hope to get another one. I would love to see a inch plus of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 6 minutes ago, soadforecaster said: ...I always hope to get another one. I would love to see a inch plus of ice. Snow looks nice... ice just sucks. Tree damage, power... plz no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 8 minutes ago, soadforecaster said: I remember as a kid how horrible those ice storms were. I had a bad one a couple years ago in 2014 in west chester pa, got about .5-.75 of ice, had now power for a week. I know its so wrong of me, but I feel like major ice storms are so rare, I always hope to get another one. I would love to see a inch plus of ice. no thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 7 minutes ago, Tibet said: Snow looks nice... ice just sucks. Tree damage, power... plz no I really don't see this being a major icing event with the higher rates that should occur after the layers aloft have warmed. Owing to the fact that freezing rain typically occurs in the presence of stable2 atmospheric conditions characterized by shallow subfreezing layers, the warming effects of the latent heat are often confined to these shallow layers and can quickly warm the layer to 0C, with subsequent precipitation running off. Thus, in the absence of a near-surface cooling mechanism, freezing rain is a self-limiting process; the heat released by freezing can eradicate the subfreezing layer (Stewart 1985) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 The 2014 Ice event was the only thing close since 1994, once every 20 yrs is good, and honestly I don't care to see another Jan like 1994 ever again, that was just brutal ice, warm, more ice, cold, warm that then led to flooding -- folks lost a lot of property that year. Although models changed again a bit today, there's still a dry slot in SE PA we should do fine with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Glenn's snow predictions at 4:50pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 7 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Glenn's snow predictions at 4:50pm: I think his numbers make a lot of sense EDIT although he is off in NNJ, but that isn't his forecast area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 4 minutes ago, hazwoper said: I think his numbers make a lot of sense EDIT although he is off in NNJ, but that isn't his forecast area Yeah, that's out of his range a bit. It's basically Philly/local burbs/Berks/ then south through NJ/Del...not NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 I think his numbers make a lot of senseAgreed. Glad he finally threw the ice threat in there tho. I'm with you that this shouldnt be a major ice event in SE PA, I really dont see that scenario here. Heavier precip rates dont allow for much ice accretion, ie, latent heat release. However, take note of how guidance is now showing dryslotting and drizzle farther N and W. Drizzle and upper 20s for a period are perfect icing conditions for those areas in parts of the LV and Poconos. There will be a surprise tossed in somewhere "in the viewing area" irt icing tomorrow. Watch that weak slp popping up on short range and hi res guidance off of South Jersey since 6z and becoming more discernable with each run. Could be just enough of a wind flow shift to keep 2m temps around freezing for a bit longer in those borderline areas. Remember when guidance was saying change to rain by 6AM with heavy rain thru early afternoon? Things have definitely shifted away from that with a changeover in SE PA closer to 10AM and much of the precip having already moved out by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 31 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Glenn's snow predictions at 4:50pm: Threw in 1-2" "+ ice" (different from above) within a half hour. 5:20pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Threw in 1-2" "+ ice" (different from above) within a half hour. 5:20pm. Glen also changed his outfit @5:20pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, snowwors2 said: Glen also changed his outfit @5:20pm Damn....you're hard core! I would've never noticed that....not a fashion guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 So if we're looking to follow this one in person its going to be a late night and early morning huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 18z rgem continues the colder trend and has the weak slp off the S NJ coast just enough of an influence to lock in low level subfreezing air. This is as close to a change to plain rain as SE PA gets on this run before drizzle and dryslotting....do we continue the colder trends at 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 22z HRRR continues to trend slightly colder at 2m and delays the arrival of the warm nose 700mb-825mb with each run. Bumps snowfall in SE PA and fzra is struggling to flip to plain rain before drizzle/dryslotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Surface wave clearly visible here developing coastal S NJ at 13z tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Wave then slowly organizes and meanders ENE fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Through the years we have had many delayed changeovers due to a surprise low pop off the jersey or Delmarva coast and keep a NE wind going, interesting to see if some of them catch that this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Surface cold hanging on tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 I will be on an island of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Difficult to decide if I want to pull an all nighter or get up early for the snow. Glenn made it more difficult saying there would be two parts to the snow with a lull in-between. I could see the best snow waiting until before the change to mix say 6-9am. Then again the best snow could be over at 7am. It's like the worst possible timing for a snow geek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 My kid has a mites ice hockey game at 7:15am tomorrow. Will need to leave by 6:30. Hoping it's cancelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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