KamuSnow Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 hour ago, AnthonyDabbundo said: Good news and bad news with this is shoveling won't really be required. With dews and temps on the rise, along with rain, snow won't last long Like Quakertown I'm hoping for something to shovel to get a snow pile started. Might have to cover it to keep some around for Christmas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 24 minutes ago, Redmorninglight said: Maybe an inch or so tonight for south Jersey and parts of Delaware? that might exceed what falls the next 10 days. Good luck! Are you staying up for it? Sounds like after midnight or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Mt. Holly upgraded their snow graphic for this event nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Mt. Holly upgraded their snow graphic for this event nicely. Wow. that is bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 6 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Good luck! Are you staying up for it? Sounds like after midnight or so. Not sure. I'll look at the radar between 10-11 pm to see if it's worth it. I'm up at 5:45 for work though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Glenn didn't give out w/any prediction amounts. Cecily (accu-weather) amounts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Mount Holly's map is very bullish imo. can't remember the last time se pa (lower bucks and mont) into jersey got more than 3 inches on these changeover events. they almost always flip earlier than expected and underperform. I'm expecting more like 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 38 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Mount Holly's map is very bullish imo. can't remember the last time se pa (lower bucks and mont) into jersey got more than 3 inches on these changeover events. they almost always flip earlier than expected and underperform. I'm expecting more like 1-2". Yep, most of the time I hear "pings" (or plain rain) too early. 1-2" is my guess/location as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Too bullish near or SE of 95. This airmass iwull be cold but no match for the surge of warmth. Besides each day this week forecast temps for Thur and Fri have crept up. The warmth has overperformed for more than a year now. Why stop now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 5 hours ago, Redmorninglight said: Not sure. I'll look at the radar between 10-11 pm to see if it's worth it. I'm up at 5:45 for work though. I've been looking at the HRRR and the radar off and on for the last couple of hours. Pretty interesting to watch this blob pop up close to where the 0z showed it, although about an hour ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Ummm. Radar says light snows further north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: Mount Holly's map is very bullish imo. can't remember the last time se pa (lower bucks and mont) into jersey got more than 3 inches on these changeover events. they almost always flip earlier than expected and underperform. I'm expecting more like 1-2". 2/21/15? 12/14/13? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 7 hours ago, KamuSnow said: Like Quakertown I'm hoping for something to shovel to get a snow pile started. Might have to cover it to keep some around for Christmas though. It's not winter until Kamu starts his infamous snowpile!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 12 minutes ago, JERSEYSNOWROB said: It's not winter until Kamu starts his infamous snowpile!!! Haha - only need an inch Saturday to make it happen (although I will admit to having shoveled less than that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Snowing here light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 2-4" still looking likely in SEPA and 1-2" SE of I95 after the 0z NAM GFS GEM Timing is bad with it coming late night early morning like the other small event we recently had. It's a real killjoy when I can't watch an event unfold and measure it, then of course there is the matter of the rain and mild temperatures melting it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 hour ago, RedSky said: 2-4" still looking likely in SEPA and 1-2" SE of I95 after the 0z NAM GFS GEM Timing is bad with it coming late night early morning like the other small event we recently had. It's a real killjoy when I can't watch an event unfold and measure it, then of course there is the matter of the rain and mild temperatures melting it away. We still have time for a few hours in either direction. I think a faster storm would serve us better. An early morning storm would work out nicely i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 0z guidance continues the trend for more significant and more rapid warming aloft. SE PA, while not there yet verbatim, is very close to just being 30 minutes of white then sleet then just wet. Holding with my 1-3" call for extreme SE PA before the flip but this seems overzealous right now given the trends. Not downgrading yet but may have to go with coating to 2" pending 0z data tonight. Hopefully we can buck this trend soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 45 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 0z guidance continues the trend for more significant and more rapid warming aloft. SE PA, while not there yet verbatim, is very close to just being 30 minutes of white then sleet then just wet. Holding with my 1-3" call for extreme SE PA before the flip but this seems overzealous right now given the trends. Not downgrading yet but may have to go with coating to 2" pending 0z data tonight. Hopefully we can buck this trend soon! I can't see 3" at all....2" is super pushing it. Hopefully it over performs. Winds are howling today though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 I can't see 3" at all....2" is super pushing it. Hopefully it over performs. Winds are howling today though...I agree 100%. Over the years I've learned not to flop around with totals too much and to gradually adjust if necessary. It's still possible the trend to quickly warm the upper levels stops or slows keeping that 3" total possible, so until at least 0z tonight I will stick with that range then adjust downward as/if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 honestly for us in se pa, I see us get snow with tongue of precip that pushes out in front of the storm. that will give maybe a inch at most. once the main batch of precip gets here I think mid levels will be to warm and it will be sleet to frz rain to rain. we have not really had any luck this winter. other than last night with the surprise inch I received lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, soadforecaster said: honestly for us in se pa, I see us get snow with tongue of precip that pushes out in front of the storm. that will give maybe a inch at most. once the main batch of precip gets here I think mid levels will be to warm and it will be sleet to frz rain to rain. we have not really had any luck this winter. other than last night with the surprise inch I received lol Pretty much...damn irritating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 For LV and north Thinking 3-6 with .25 ice hopefully no more. Don't wanna see nam numbers yikes.Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Lehigh Valley holding on to a decent snow on the 12z runs but Lucy is infecting all areas S&E with it widdled down now to 1-2" and maybe 3" N&W areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 2 hours ago, anthonyweather said: For LV and north Thinking 3-6 with .25 ice hopefully no more. Don't wanna see nam numbers yikes. Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Yeah I was thinking in the 4" range in the Central Berks area, We usually see decent icing around me so i'm hoping the surface warms quickly for plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Oh no the computers are taking away my early morning snow I won't see falling and that will be washed clean anyway 8 hours later oh noooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 NEXT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 13 hours ago, Winter Wizard said: 2/21/15? 12/14/13? Completly different set ups. not even close to the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 NEXTGood talk ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 To be honest I'd take more days of frigid cold like this than more rain days, and hey we'll hit 60 on Christmas again. At least with the cold it keeps the mud in the back yard frozen and my dogs don't go out one shade of brown and come back another. By the look of the long term I don't see us getting any snow any time soon, so I'll be happy with freezing and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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