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Front End Thump Event 12-17 / 12-18


ChescoWx

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  On 12/14/2016 at 7:21 PM, AnthonyDabbundo said:

Good news and bad news with this is shoveling won't really be required. With dews and temps on the rise, along with rain, snow won't last long

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Like Quakertown I'm hoping for something to shovel to get a snow pile started. Might have to cover it to keep some around for Christmas though.

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  On 12/15/2016 at 12:27 AM, The Iceman said:

Mount Holly's map is very bullish imo. can't remember the last time se pa (lower bucks and mont) into jersey got more than 3 inches on these changeover events. they almost always flip earlier than expected and underperform. I'm expecting more like 1-2".

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Yep, most of the time I hear "pings" (or plain rain) too early. 1-2" is my guess/location as well...

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  On 12/14/2016 at 8:42 PM, Redmorninglight said:

Not sure. I'll look at the radar between 10-11 pm to see if it's worth it. I'm up at 5:45 for work though. 

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I've been looking at the HRRR and the radar off and on for the last couple of hours. Pretty interesting to watch this blob pop up close to where the 0z showed it, although about an hour ahead of schedule.

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  On 12/15/2016 at 12:27 AM, The Iceman said:

Mount Holly's map is very bullish imo. can't remember the last time se pa (lower bucks and mont) into jersey got more than 3 inches on these changeover events. they almost always flip earlier than expected and underperform. I'm expecting more like 1-2".

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2/21/15? 12/14/13?

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2-4" still looking likely in SEPA and 1-2" SE of I95 after the 0z NAM GFS GEM 

Timing is bad with it coming late night early morning like the other small event we recently had. It's a real killjoy when I can't watch an event unfold and measure it, then of course there is the matter of the rain and mild temperatures melting it away. 

 

 

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  On 12/15/2016 at 4:42 AM, RedSky said:

2-4" still looking likely in SEPA and 1-2" SE of I95 after the 0z NAM GFS GEM 

Timing is bad with it coming late night early morning like the other small event we recently had. It's a real killjoy when I can't watch an event unfold and measure it, then of course there is the matter of the rain and mild temperatures melting it away. 

 

 

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We still have time for a few hours in either direction. I think a faster storm would serve us better. An early morning storm would work out nicely i think.

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0z guidance continues the trend for more significant and more rapid warming aloft. SE PA, while not there yet verbatim, is very close to just being 30 minutes of white then sleet then just wet. Holding with my 1-3" call for extreme SE PA before the flip but this seems overzealous right now given the trends. Not downgrading yet but may have to go with coating to 2" pending 0z data tonight. Hopefully we can buck this trend soon!


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  On 12/15/2016 at 12:02 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

0z guidance continues the trend for more significant and more rapid warming aloft. SE PA, while not there yet verbatim, is very close to just being 30 minutes of white then sleet then just wet. Holding with my 1-3" call for extreme SE PA before the flip but this seems overzealous right now given the trends. Not downgrading yet but may have to go with coating to 2" pending 0z data tonight. Hopefully we can buck this trend soon!
 

 

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I can't see 3" at all....2" is super pushing it. Hopefully it over performs.

Winds are howling today though...

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  On 12/15/2016 at 12:51 PM, Birds~69 said:
I can't see 3" at all....2" is super pushing it. Hopefully it over performs.

Winds are howling today though...


I agree 100%. Over the years I've learned not to flop around with totals too much and to gradually adjust if necessary. It's still possible the trend to quickly warm the upper levels stops or slows keeping that 3" total possible, so until at least 0z tonight I will stick with that range then adjust downward as/if needed.
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honestly for us in se pa, I see us get snow with tongue of precip that pushes out in front of the storm. that will give maybe a inch at most. once the main batch of precip gets here I think mid levels will be to warm and it will be sleet to frz rain to rain. we have not really had any luck this winter. other than last night with the surprise inch I received lol

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  On 12/15/2016 at 1:35 PM, soadforecaster said:

honestly for us in se pa, I see us get snow with tongue of precip that pushes out in front of the storm. that will give maybe a inch at most. once the main batch of precip gets here I think mid levels will be to warm and it will be sleet to frz rain to rain. we have not really had any luck this winter. other than last night with the surprise inch I received lol

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Pretty much...damn irritating.

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  On 12/15/2016 at 1:54 PM, anthonyweather said:

For LV and north Thinking 3-6 with .25 ice hopefully no more. Don't wanna see nam numbers yikes.

Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk
 

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Yeah I was thinking in the 4" range in the Central Berks area, We usually see decent icing around me so i'm hoping the surface warms quickly for plain rain

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To be honest I'd take more days of frigid cold like this than more rain days, and hey we'll hit 60 on Christmas again.

At least with the cold it keeps the mud in the back yard frozen and my dogs don't go out one shade of brown and come back another.  By the look of the long term I don't see us getting any snow any time soon, so I'll be happy with freezing and dry.
 

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