ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Thought I would start a thread for the potential front end thump before the rain washes it away. The lates Wxsim with 18z NAM and 12z GFS for NW Chesco has light snow starting 1am Saturday temp 24.0. Mod Snow by 7am temp 25.4 with 1.6" snow. 1030am S+ temp 27.0 with 5.0" snow. ZR by 1pm 29.4. Temp does not rise above 32 till 1030pm on Saturday night. Total frozen precip w/snow at that point (0.78') Then a cold rain through Sunday with temps topping out in the low 40's and 1.20" of rain. Then mixes back with snow before ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I'm looking forward to the 5 minutes of snow somewhere between 5 and 7 am before rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 Hey Red....you might be right....but anyway you slice this - it's a much more interesting December than last year!! You live in a great place - great restaurants and views!! If the weather allows I will be down near you in Wildwood on Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 11 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Hey Red....you might be right....but anyway you slice this - it's a much more interesting December than last year!! You live in a great place - great restaurants and views!! If the weather allows I will be down near you in Wildwood on Saturday night Sure does... love Mad Batter, Rusty Nail and Hot Dog Tommies (but really miss Tommy!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Sure does... love Mad Batter, Rusty Nail and Hot Dog Tommies (but really miss Tommy!)I was thinking Tisha's, the Black Duck, or Lucky Bones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 All great places. Had lucky bones pizza last night. Early winter is tough here especially without blocking and the exceptional warm ocean. I'm not sold on the Nina analogs that offer mild Feb and Mar. seems we've swapped Dec for Mar as a winter month last few years. Maybe something interesting after the cutter Sunday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 All great places. Had lucky bones pizza last night. Early winter is tough here especially without blocking and the exceptional warm ocean. I'm not sold on the Nina analogs that offer mild Feb and Mar. seems we've swapped Dec for Mar as a winter month last few years. Maybe something interesting after the cutter Sunday night?A wave tries to develop on the stalled front in the SE and come NNE. Problem is, will the be enough cold air left? Looks extremely marginal on most guidance. Heck, the Euro looks well AN most of early next week with temps in the upper 50s. Saturday looks like a solid 1-3"/2-4" event before changing to rain for most of extreme SE PA. Down in CM, Im sorry, not this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 No worries. I never expect snow on storms that track to our west. Inland areas can score on the front end but being surrounded by mid 40s water negates snow for us. I'm ready for a major pattern reload. This current one is good for NNE or Ohio. Lol. This cold shot looks muted too compared to just 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just got NAM'd on the GFS with 4-8" Saturday morning 8" imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Yep solid 4-6" on the GFS for immediate burbs. More towards Redsky and Quakertown (Andy). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 CMC is looking good too we are not going to strike out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Really wish this was a rain-snow back-end thump followed by cold. Although something, front-end thumps followed by rain/mild temps for a short period kinda suck. In March, this is ok. Not December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Really wish this was a rain-snow back-end thump followed by cold. Although something, front-end thumps followed by rain/mild temps for a short period kinda suck. In March, this is ok. Not December.December is the new March and vice-versa in more recent years fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: December is the new March and vice-versa in more recent years fwiw. True. But that sucks as well...because we deal with sun angle issues in March. Just snow Dec-Jan-Feb and anything snow-wise in March/April is a bonus. Summer never seems to fail w/heat/humidity at some point (may fail w/T-storms)....Winter throws curve balls every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Yep solid 4-6" on the GFS for immediate burbs. More towards Redsky and Quakertown (Andy). Just got NAM'd on the GFS with 4-8" Saturday morning 8" imby A fair amount of that is sleet. The algorithms in the program count sleet as accumulating snow fwiw. There is a nasty warm tongue above 800mb. 1-3" is a more reasonable call attm and adjust up from there if needed. If anything, tonight's 0z is alot worse than prior runs irt shifting that warm nose North alot faster. If you backtrack 3 suites you can see the subsequent N trend with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 6z models still headed the wrong direction with the inversion above 800mb and show brief snow before a flip for most. NAM is coating to 2" with some sleet, GFS is 1-3" with some sleet before flipping to rain in extreme SE PA. Father N and W do a little better. GFS develops the Sunday evening followup wave into a rain->sleet->accumulating slop mess. Who knows, the followup wave may be more promising than Saturday's event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 hopefully the CAD can hang so I can make a weenie snow pile because that flow depicted will be a huge battle that may win out quicker than shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 GFS looks good for Philly. 4 + inches from both waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 Wxsim with 6z data for NW Chester County PA has: Snow arriving by 1230am on Saturday temp 22.6 - 7am S+ 22.7 with 3.6" on the ground. 1030am Heavy Sleet temp 24.4 with 4.8" of snow/sleet on the ground. Then ZR through midnight. Surface temps remaining below freezing but it shows 850mb temps soaring to 52.2 about 0.35" falls as ZR - surface temps topping out at 36.0 on Sunday afternoon then they begin to fall with sleet mixing in by 9pm and becoming heavy sleet by 930pm - then a transition to Heavy Snow by 1230am Monday before ending toward morning with an additional 2" of snow/sleet accumulation. The Wxsim indicates only about 2" of snow remaining on the ground at 7am on Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 NAM has me worried. Warms up at all levels far quicker than the GFS it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 NAM has me worried. Warms up at all levels far quicker than the GFS it appears.Has some nasty ice Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2" SE zones to 4" NW would be most likely accumulations in SEPA at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 One thing we do know is more needed rain is a sure bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 hour ago, anthonyweather said: Has some nasty ice Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Not really. Surface warms above freezing everywhere up to LHV between 72 and 75 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 ECM holds with it's idea of a general 3-4" snow in the area. Bonus today's run has seasonable temps Christmas Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 The trend continues at 12z since 6z yesterday.....faster warming aloft. Looks like things continue to slowly nudge farther N as well. Sticking with a general 1-3" snow then sleet to rain for most of extreme SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Good news and bad news with this is shoveling won't really be required. With dews and temps on the rise, along with rain, snow won't last long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Anyone think CAD will keep the snow around a little longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Anyone think CAD will keep the snow around a little longer?No. Besides, CAD is more a recipe for ice and or sleet where cold gets trapped at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Maybe an inch or so tonight for south Jersey and parts of Delaware? that might exceed what falls the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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