UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just now, allgame830 said: That looks like a slight increase if I reading it correctly... please correct me if I am wrong. Depends on where you are, but from 06 and last night 00 yes, slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 9 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: NWNJ does far better than LI Wouldn't say "far better". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, ag3 said: Wouldn't say "far better". Wouldn't say LI does "better" either but hey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Wouldn't say LI does "better" either but hey It's all about who gets the heaviest precip before Saturday 15z. After 15z, everyone will have rain or a mix. Warm surge always pushes through faster then modeled in these scenarios. No model knows heavy band placement yet. Rgem and Nam are pinpointing ocean and sound enhancement on today's runs. Makes sense with the southerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Nam certainly seems to like that backend band, everyone picks up a couple more inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Nam wouldn't be a bad scenario, good front end thump, dry slot with cold rain showers, then back end enhancement dropping another inch or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Hi res Nam 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 I don't trust back end snows; wrapped up lows on the other hand, where the CCB is delayed and all those fun calls of bust occur, but then bam! Backend snows...not so much. Let's hope the cold air holds on long enough for us all to enjoy the only storm of the winter...per some posts today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 GFS looks unchanged so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Everyone's rain by 18z sat...except extreme N+W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 The cut back continues on the nam and gfs. Warmer and less qpf when we are cold enough. Around a inch for the city and less south and east. 1-3 nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 This is quickly becoming a carbon copy of last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 GFS has a sweet spot that runs from NNJ-rockland-southern OC into westechester and Putnam of 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The cut back continues on the nam and gfs. Warmer and less qpf when we are cold enough. Around a inch for the city and less south and east. 1-3 nw 3 inches for the city. Down from 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS has a sweet spot that runs from NNJ-rockland-southern OC into westechester and Putnam of 3-5 OK thank you for the correct information... AllSnow said 1-3 NW but did not specify areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just now, allgame830 said: OK thank you for the correct information... AllSnow said 1-3 NW but did not specify areas. Wouldn't take the snowmaps to heart tho, GFS snow maps are very spotty as they have been with this system, gonna depend on where heavier precip develops while we're cold enough for snow, just know that GFS is weaker/warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, Morris said: 3 inches for the city. Down from 4. What maps are you using? I have 1-2 around the city at most and less south and east. The tidbit maps count sleet as snow with a 10-1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This is quickly becoming a carbon copy of last weekend Yeah... oh well. Most know here what I think of and expect from SWFE events in general for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, allgame830 said: OK thank you for the correct information... AllSnow said 1-3 NW but did not specify areas. Outside Sussex county everyone is 1-3 in north jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: What maps are you using? I have 1-2 around the city at most and less south and east. The tidbit maps count sleet as snow with a 10-1 ratio wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: how much for Belle Mead..is this looking bad for plows...last week I got flurries but I knew it would bust, this week I figured we were good to squeeze out at least 2...does that even look bad? Im think around a inch for us. Eps has around 2 in our area. The warmer and less qpf trend conintues so that could def come down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 RGEM is much colder than GFS through its 48 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Those cut-offs around the coast are slightly exaggerated. Looks like between .3-.5 QPF falls in NYC and LI before 850 and 932 Temps go above freezing at 15Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 By 12z Sunday we are pushing 60 in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 RGEM drops 1-3" for city by 8am Saturday with mix line still in extreme Southern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just now, Allsnow said: By 12z Sunday we are pushing 60 in the area Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam If anyone wondered where Commack is, its on the SW side of the 3" blob. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, psv88 said: If anyone wondered where Commack is, its on the SW side of the 3" blob. Sign me up. Snow maps suck for Long Island... it always shows that "blob", maps do terrible job with the island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Snow maps suck for Long Island... it always shows that "blob", maps do terrible job with the island What? Snow maps do not always show that blob...snow maps for the island are often underdone, not overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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