jm1220 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 32 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: My only thing with that.. is can you imagine being 2 miles north or south of where a band sets up? Talk about screw zone... I feel that would stres me out 100 times worse than worrying about a Miller B or SWFE event, lol If you live in that area where LES bands are common, you average 80-100"+ a winter, and you'll be hit by another band another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 GFS looks the same, upped totals a tad edit: in certain areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Some decent lift on the gfs for the thump early Saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 GFS is definitely warmer and less qpf during the time it's cold enough for snow. 1-2 for the city and less then that south and east. North jersey 3-6. Models have trended warmer and dryer so far today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 GGEM snows till around 12-1pm then mix line pushes into rockland by 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Rain to Albany by 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Ggem 3-4" area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 I do not find this set up ideal for CAD. Antecedent high pressure is too far south east of the mid Atlantic. The ocean is relatively warm still. If south-southeast winds are blowing at all, they're going to mean business. Therefore, I favor the warmer guidance with less snow, particularly on Long Island, in NYC...coastal sections. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 I'm thinking I'm a lock to see at least 3" in Hunts Point (Bronx). My area is in the southern section of the borough but away from the LI Sound and on a hill at like 100' elevation. It's definitely possible that immediate coastal areas like my former location in Bay Ridge get only 1-2"...could be a big gradient from JFK to HPN. My thoughts: JFK: 2" NYC/LGA: 3.5" Bronx/Southern Westchester: 4-6" NW NJ/Rockland/Orange/Putnam: 5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 GFS had exactly the same 4 inches for the city in 0z as in 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 The 0z GFS revived the idea of the anafrontal wave with the City picking up another inch. Sunday night could be VERY DANGEROUS with a flash freeze of the existing slush as well as a coating of new snow. Driving conditions are always the worst when temperatures rapidly drop after a mixed precipitation event with new snow covering up black ice and freezing slush. This is especially true in NW areas that could see up to 0.5" ice and will struggle to get above freezing. The City south will be bad for another reason: the anafrontal event looks more potent in Central NJ and the southern boroughs like Brooklyn and Staten Is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 5 hours ago, nzucker said: The 0z GFS revived the idea of the anafrontal wave with the City picking up another inch. Sunday night could be VERY DANGEROUS with a flash freeze of the existing slush as well as a coating of new snow. Driving conditions are always the worst when temperatures rapidly drop after a mixed precipitation event with new snow covering up black ice and freezing slush. This is especially true in NW areas that could see up to 0.5" ice and will struggle to get above freezing. The City south will be bad for another reason: the anafrontal event looks more potent in Central NJ and the southern boroughs like Brooklyn and Staten Is. Cmc also shows the anafrontal wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 2 hours ago, dmillz25 said: Euro? Below an inch for our area About an inch for Manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 15, 2016 Author Share Posted December 15, 2016 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Below an inch for our area About an inch for Manhattan Jeez that blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 40 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Below an inch for our area About an inch for Manhattan What about for areas 35 miles NW of the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 18 minutes ago, allgame830 said: What about for areas 35 miles NW of the city? It dropped those totals as well from the previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It dropped those totals as well from the previous run Could you be a little more specific?? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 18 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Could you be a little more specific?? Lol At 10:1 euro is 3-5 for all burbs/interior until you get north of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 27 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Could you be a little more specific?? Lol FYI, it's very easy to see the forecast models. Even from a cell phone via their mobile site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 9 minutes ago, seanick said: FYI, it's very easy to see the forecast models. Even from a cell phone via their mobile site. The euro is paid... if he doesn't belong to a paid site he isn't seeing euro QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 25 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The euro is paid... if he doesn't belong to a paid site he isn't seeing euro QPF Yes thank you, I do not have access to the EURO, so I rely on people like you to spread the news... thank you for the information. Still a solid event NW of the city amongst all of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 59 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: What did the Euro show for the entire metro? Coating into long island. Half inch for south shores of NYC and around an inch for manhattan with slightly more to the north and west. Amounts dropped from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Coating into long island. Half inch for south shores of NYC and around an inch for manhattan with slightly more to the north and west. Amounts dropped from 12z. I still see 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 17 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: I still see 4" You are in a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 The models backing off on the front end snow before the warmth surges in obviously isn't a good sign. We need to see a reversal of this soon, otherwise the city and coast will be lucky to see an inch or two. Anywhere near the coast will be on very borrowed time and light/choppy intensity snow won't keep it at bay for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 minute ago, ag3 said: 16 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: My snow totals actually decreased from 12z fairly decent on GF 3 minutes ago, ag3 said: 12z NAM has more snow for LI then NNJ. NWNJ does far better than LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 2 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The euro is paid... if he doesn't belong to a paid site he isn't seeing euro QPF Not true, you can see Euro QPF on wunderground with 3 hr intervals for free. It's just the interface is sh**ty and can be glitchy. Not sure how they can do that for free and it's the only site I know of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Not true, you can see Euro QPF on wunderground with 3 hr intervals for free. It's just the interface is sh**ty and can be glitchy. Not sure how they can do that for free and it's the only site I know of. Didn't even know this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam That looks like a slight increase if I reading it correctly... please correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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