Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,605
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Dec 17-18 Front End Snow/Ice/Rain Event


dmillz25

Recommended Posts

32 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

My only thing with that.. is can you imagine being 2 miles north or south of where a band sets up? Talk about screw zone... I feel that would stres me out 100 times worse than worrying about a Miller B or SWFE event, lol

If you live in that area where LES bands are common, you average 80-100"+ a winter, and you'll be hit by another band another day. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 566
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I do not find this set up ideal for CAD. Antecedent high pressure is too far south east of the mid Atlantic. The ocean is relatively warm still. If south-southeast winds are blowing at all, they're going to mean business. Therefore, I favor the warmer guidance with less snow, particularly on Long Island, in NYC...coastal sections.

WX/PT

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm thinking I'm a lock to see at least 3" in Hunts Point (Bronx). My area is in the southern section of the borough but away from the LI Sound and on a hill at like 100' elevation. It's definitely possible that immediate coastal areas like my former location in Bay Ridge get only 1-2"...could be a big gradient from JFK to HPN.

My thoughts:

JFK: 2"

NYC/LGA: 3.5"

Bronx/Southern Westchester: 4-6" 

NW NJ/Rockland/Orange/Putnam: 5-8"

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 0z GFS revived the idea of the anafrontal wave with the City picking up another inch. Sunday night could be VERY DANGEROUS with a flash freeze of the existing slush as well as a coating of new snow. Driving conditions are always the worst when temperatures rapidly drop after a mixed precipitation event with new snow covering up black ice and freezing slush.

This is especially true in NW areas that could see up to 0.5" ice and will struggle to get above freezing. The City south will be bad for another reason: the anafrontal event looks more potent in Central NJ and the southern boroughs like Brooklyn and Staten Is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, nzucker said:

The 0z GFS revived the idea of the anafrontal wave with the City picking up another inch. Sunday night could be VERY DANGEROUS with a flash freeze of the existing slush as well as a coating of new snow. Driving conditions are always the worst when temperatures rapidly drop after a mixed precipitation event with new snow covering up black ice and freezing slush.

This is especially true in NW areas that could see up to 0.5" ice and will struggle to get above freezing. The City south will be bad for another reason: the anafrontal event looks more potent in Central NJ and the southern boroughs like Brooklyn and Staten Is.

Cmc also shows the anafrontal wave

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

The euro is paid... if he doesn't belong to a paid site he isn't seeing euro QPF 

Yes thank you, I do not have access to the EURO, so I rely on people like you to spread the news... thank you for the information. Still a solid event NW of the city amongst all of the models. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The models backing off on the front end snow before the warmth surges in obviously isn't a good sign. We need to see a reversal of this soon, otherwise the city and coast will be lucky to see an inch or two. Anywhere near the coast will be on very borrowed time and light/choppy intensity snow won't keep it at bay for long. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

The euro is paid... if he doesn't belong to a paid site he isn't seeing euro QPF 

Not true, you can see Euro QPF on wunderground with 3 hr intervals for free. It's just the interface is sh**ty and can be glitchy. Not sure how they can do that for free and it's the only site I know of.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...