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Dec 17-18 Front End Snow/Ice/Rain Event

dmillz25

By dmillz25,
in New York City Metro

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mikem81

mikem81

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM is warming the BL too early in all likelihood, that is not too unusual.  I just looked at the soundings on BUFKIT.  With a 4kt wind it absolutely skyrockets the temp at LGA from 10-12z while the mid-levels are cold til 15z.  I don't see any way with snow falling and a wind that light, even from the south how the BL warms that fast.

 

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM is warming the BL too early in all likelihood, that is not too unusual.  I just looked at the soundings on BUFKIT.  With a 4kt wind it absolutely skyrockets the temp at LGA from 10-12z while the mid-levels are cold til 15z.  I don't see any way with snow falling and a wind that light, even from the south how the BL warms that fast.

Thanks. Was exactly my point. During precip and light wind, temp is not going to rise that fast...

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted 
Great write up my Mt holly nws 

A high impact wintry event will move through the region. A strong
low pressure system will track northeast from the Southern Plains
into the midwest. With the high offshore, warm air advection will
increase and correspond with a warm front pushing northward.
Isentropic lift will combine with increased mid level vertical
velocities and frontogenesis forcing leading to the development
of precipitation late Friday night and Saturday which is highly
probable to become moderate or heavy at times. Wind gusts of 20
mph are possible as well in this timeframe.

The precipitation should start everywhere as snow but the warm air
advection will be potent (strong LLJ) with the high not in an ideal
place to keep cold air around for an extended period. The snow
should quickly change to rain Saturday morning across Delmarva and
coastal New Jersey south of Atlantic City. Further north the snow
will last a few hours longer in the Philadelphia and central New
Jersey regions changing over by noon. In Northern New Jersey, the
Lehigh Valley and Southern Poconos cold air is likely to hang on
throughout most of the day before seeing a changeover to rain. A
period of sleet and freezing rain is also probable at many
locations in the transition as the mid-levels warm faster than the
surface. For some of the valleys north and west, it may be more
of a challenge to scour out the low level cold resulting in an
extended period of ice. Models are notorious for getting rid of
low level cold too quick. One thing that could allow the cold to
hang on longer would be the formation of a secondary low off the
NJ coastline, which is a possibility shown on some ensemble
members.

First guess snow totals with a few locations listed for each
range. Will likely change based on track and intensity of system
in the coming days. Ratios may start out in the 10-15:1 as snow
growth looks favorable in the -10 to 20C layer along with the
favorable lift described above.

4-6 for Mount Pocono, Wantage, Reading, Allentown and Somerville.

2-4 for Wilmington, Philadelphia, Mount Holly and New Brunswick

1-2 for Dover, Millville northeast into the Pine Barrens

Less than an inch is currently expected for Georgetown and Cape
May.
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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Allsnow said: 

Great write up my Mt holly nws 

A high impact wintry event will move through the region. A strong
low pressure system will track northeast from the Southern Plains
into the midwest. With the high offshore, warm air advection will
increase and correspond with a warm front pushing northward.
Isentropic lift will combine with increased mid level vertical
velocities and frontogenesis forcing leading to the development
of precipitation late Friday night and Saturday which is highly
probable to become moderate or heavy at times. Wind gusts of 20
mph are possible as well in this timeframe.

The precipitation should start everywhere as snow but the warm air
advection will be potent (strong LLJ) with the high not in an ideal
place to keep cold air around for an extended period. The snow
should quickly change to rain Saturday morning across Delmarva and
coastal New Jersey south of Atlantic City. Further north the snow
will last a few hours longer in the Philadelphia and central New
Jersey regions changing over by noon. In Northern New Jersey, the
Lehigh Valley and Southern Poconos cold air is likely to hang on
throughout most of the day before seeing a changeover to rain. A
period of sleet and freezing rain is also probable at many
locations in the transition as the mid-levels warm faster than the
surface. For some of the valleys north and west, it may be more
of a challenge to scour out the low level cold resulting in an
extended period of ice. Models are notorious for getting rid of
low level cold too quick. One thing that could allow the cold to
hang on longer would be the formation of a secondary low off the
NJ coastline, which is a possibility shown on some ensemble
members.

First guess snow totals with a few locations listed for each
range. Will likely change based on track and intensity of system
in the coming days. Ratios may start out in the 10-15:1 as snow
growth looks favorable in the -10 to 20C layer along with the
favorable lift described above.

4-6 for Mount Pocono, Wantage, Reading, Allentown and Somerville.

2-4 for Wilmington, Philadelphia, Mount Holly and New Brunswick

1-2 for Dover, Millville northeast into the Pine Barrens

Less than an inch is currently expected for Georgetown and Cape
May.

I'm glad NWS thinks ratios will be decent 

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WarrenCtyWx

WarrenCtyWx

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Which I'm not sure I understand, precip isn't scattered at all, and banding looks consistent, GFS is the only model showing pocket accumulations weird

 

and what's up with the screw whole up by Kingston? 

Yeah, that is a very puzzling snowfall distribution that the GFS is depicting. It seems to be in complete contrast with other models that are showing a more uniform distribution of precipitation. The probability of that exact solution verifying is fortunately pretty low. 

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

Yeah, that is a very puzzling snowfall distribution that the GFS is depicting. It seems to be in complete contrast with other models that are showing a more uniform distribution of precipitation. The probability of that exact solution verifying is fortunately pretty low. 

Look at the surface map, heavy pocket precip is scattered all over the place on the GFS.

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UlsterCountySnowZ

UlsterCountySnowZ

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nam might be warming up too quickly. Hopefully it's wrong.

Lets see the other models.

I would hate to see this cold air go to waste

I do believe Nam warms up too fast, but a lot of people say toss Nam before 48hrs out...it's easily been one of the best this season, even out to 84hrs, it fluctuates very little run to run and may be suited for this current pattern

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

My only thing with that.. is can you imagine being 2 miles north or south of where a band sets up? Talk about screw zone... I feel that would stres me out 100 times worse than worrying about a Miller B or SWFE event, lol

If I had to pick a place to live, I would pick Syracuase. They get lake effect, clippers , swfe and noreasters.

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