Allsnow Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 41 minutes ago, Dsnowx53 said: The surface has very little to do with ratios. It's all about the profile and lift where the snowflakes are actually forming, as that determines the snowflake type and density. With the insane WAA modeled at the mid-levels, we can get plenty of lift in the snow growth zone and thus actually get pretty good ratios at times. Thanks Doug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Euro verbatim 10:1 NYC- 3-4" immidiate burbs 3-5" Rockland to 84- 4-6" north and west of 84- 5-7" NWNJ- 5-7" higher amounts in Catskills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro verbatim 10:1 NYC- 3-4" immidiate burbs 3-5" Rockland to 84- 4-6" north and west of 84- 5-7" NWNJ- 5-7" higher amounts in Catskills So maybe 5" in the city because of slightly higher ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 Euro has nothing for Sunday night/Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: ratios actually look good assuming there isn't a lot of riming My thinking was that riming and mixed snowflake types were likely to bog down ratios given the deep lift and saturation through the 0 to -10C layer, which looks to extend all the way up to like 650mb. Am I completely off-base? Edit: especially since large dendrites are most susceptible to density increases from riming, and they should be forming readily in the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said: Euro is pretty similar from its 00z counterpart. Very good consistency among all models for this time range i have to say, pretty much model noise at this point. The LHV and NW CT does better this run, still solid for the rest of CT and NYC into NNJ. Good run. The overrunning inducing disturbance or wave at 500mb is too weak and is really restricted from undergoing any further amplification because of the developing main low behind it. I think the strength of the cold dome or high is the only key factor that could change. The track of the wave in this setup should be prone to only subtle changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1-5" for long island towards city, with city likely seeing higher amounts along with parts of the north shore of long island probably, less roughly southern suffolk county east towards montauk. At this point that would seem like a decent call. +/- of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 47 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: 1-5" for long island towards city, with city likely seeing higher amounts along with parts of the north shore of long island probably, less roughly southern suffolk county east towards montauk. At this point that would seem like a decent call. +/- of course The weekend storm looks like 1-3 inches for the coast and more to the north and west as of right now. The coast could see higher amounts if the precip comes in earlier than modeled or the cold air hangs out longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 This storm is a Big Deal for the interior. We going to get smoked with snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 6 minutes ago, Animal said: This storm is a Big Deal for the interior. We going to get smoked with snow again. I'm hoping Morris County gets a nice hit. I have like 1.5" so far lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Nams earlier with precip than most guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I'm going up to Middletown NY this Friday/Saturday to visit my SO so I'm excited for this storm. I should have a better chance than my hometown will in terms of snowfall accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, HailMan06 said: I'm going up to Middletown NY this Friday/Saturday to visit my SO so I'm excited for this storm. I should have a better chance than my hometown will in terms of snowfall accumulation. Nam/euro have about 6-8" for Middletown enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 4 minutes ago, HailMan06 said: I'm going up to Middletown NY this Friday/Saturday to visit my SO so I'm excited for this storm. I should have a better chance than my hometown will in terms of snowfall accumulation. Yeah we should do well here in Middletown. 6-8" looks very possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 18z NAM @ 10am Saturday Crush job for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, snywx said: 18z NAM @ 10am Saturday Crush job for the interior This should be used starting tomorrow at 12Z. ONly use within 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Ed Vallee "Front end snowfall accumulations expected into Saturday. Could be quite significant in eastern PA, N NJ, NY where low level jet sets up." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 8 minutes ago, snywx said: 18z NAM @ 10am Saturday Crush job for the interior Might be warning criteria where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 18 z NAM hits a snowball to the interior. We snow!!! Yea Baby!!! We win again!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I still like my earlier thinking, 3-5" of snow for the NYC metro. I also wouldn't lean to heavily on the NAM yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Might be warning criteria where you are. This is turning out to be a very good start to winter up here. If this storm pans out most will be around 15-20" for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: I still like my earlier thinking, 3-5" of snow for the NYC metro. I also wouldn't lean to heavily on the NAM yet. It's pretty identical to euro, just a bit more expansive with heavier precip, and close to GFS too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: It's pretty identical to euro, just a bit more expansive with heavier precip, and close to GFS too The Nam spreads the heavier precip to the NW burbs and Orange/Ulster area CMC and GFS much more QPF along the coast. Really will come down to how much precip fails. I dont buy the NAM warming up temps in NYC area by 15 degrees in 5 hours during heavy precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 The vineyard west wind 24 to 33 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Nam develops a new low on the coast I didn't see the other models do that Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, mikem81 said: The Nam spreads the heavier precip to the NW burbs and Orange/Ulster area CMC and GFS much more QPF along the coast. Really will come down to how much precip fails. I dont buy the NAM warming up temps in NYC area by 15 degrees in 5 hours during heavy precip Why don't you buy that? That's exactly what's going to happen, SW winds will guarantee this GFS does the exact same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: The Nam spreads the heavier precip to the NW burbs and Orange/Ulster area CMC and GFS much more QPF along the coast. Really will come down to how much precip fails. I dont buy the NAM warming up temps in NYC area by 15 degrees in 5 hours during heavy precip It'll warm up very fast once the wind goes south. Usually in these setups though the south wind shift occurs a bit slower than expected, or more so the speeds are slower than expected for longer. That happened this Sunday. The high can sometimes be slower to exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Why don't you buy that? That's exactly what's going to happen, SW winds will guarantee this GFS does the exact same thing The NAM has NYC at 44 degrees at 18Z Sat, GFS has it at 36... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam develops a new low on the coast I didn't see the other models do that Interesting Ggem and euro both do this, just not as early as Nam, that's our dryslot, as energy transfers to a coastal that pulls off NE and up to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: The NAM has NYC at 44 degrees at 18Z Sat, GFS has it at 36... The NAM is warming the BL too early in all likelihood, that is not too unusual. I just looked at the soundings on BUFKIT. With a 4kt wind it absolutely skyrockets the temp at LGA from 10-12z while the mid-levels are cold til 15z. I don't see any way with snow falling and a wind that light, even from the south how the BL warms that fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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