Allsnow Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Further east this run with anafrontal wave. Less then a inch 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: What about that anafrontal wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I really didn't think their was much changes in the 12z gfs compared to 06z. Looks like a general 2-4 for the entire area away from the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 25 minutes ago, Allsnow said: By 18z Saturday rain up to ct. 3-5 away from the immediate coast this run and Long Island looks more like 2-3 in NJ proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I really didn't think their was much changes in the 12z gfs compared to 06z. Looks like a general 2-4 for the entire area away from the coast Ratios will be greater than 10:1 also, as was the case with the last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Ggem is in general agreement with GFS 3-6" (counting slightly higher than 10:1 ratios) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: El GGEM? Nothing for the Sunday night as it's very progressive with the front side note but looks like snj picks up about a inch tonight on most of the model s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 lets not go too crazy with ratios in these types of events, sure some do overperform but I think you need to start with the 10-1 ratio until we see the exact setup and conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Nothing for the Sunday night as it's very progressive with the front side note but looks like snj picks up about a inch tonight on most of the model s Funny because crankywxguy on twitter thinks this can get as far north as NYC but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: Funny because crankywxguy on twitter thinks this can get as far north as NYC but who knows GFS and Cmc have it up to the Driscoll bridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ggem is in general agreement with GFS 3-6" (counting slightly higher than 10:1 ratios) You have to look at soundings to determine ratios. Snow growth has to be good within the snow growth layer-you want between -12 to -18C at around 700mb I think, and no dry layers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: lets not go too crazy with ratios in these types of events, sure some do overperform but I think you need to start with the 10-1 ratio until we see the exact setup and conditions Ratios ranged from 13 to 15:1 up here this past weekend, upton went with 13:1, much colder air mass this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: lets not go too crazy with ratios in these types of events, sure some do overperform but I think you need to start with the 10-1 ratio until we see the exact setup and conditions Agreed. A borderline temp. profile doesn't exactly scream high ratios unless the soundings are showing an exceptionally deep/saturated DGZ. I'll have to take a look when the 12z BUFKIT soundings are available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 This will just be a 10-1 event perhaps a touch higher at the very start. Not going to get much higher then that with a se wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ggem is in general agreement with GFS 3-6" (counting slightly higher than 10:1 ratios) more like 2 to 4 for the interior. The coast/city seems to do better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: We looking at the same GFS? Lol thebthe exception of a 4" strip in Orange County the interior performs just the same as the City, and in spots with elevation better than NYC (i.e. Sullivan/Gunks No I was referring to the ggem which looks nothing like the gfs with regards to the higher amounts being N&W (which is where they should end up) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: No I was referring to the ggem which looks nothing like the gfs with regards to the higher amounts being N&W (which is where they should end up) Oh then I'd agree, the GGEM is pretty uniform 4-5 NYC 3-4 burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This will just be a 10-1 event perhaps a touch higher at the very start. Not going to get much higher then that with a se wind Agreed, I don't see anything to suggest ratios significantly better than climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 ratios actually look good assuming there isn't a lot of riming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, forkyfork said: ratios actually look good assuming there isn't a lot of riming [i Was trying to find the soundings thnx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 i've been posting these charts for 5+ years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 The surface has very little to do with ratios. It's all about the profile and lift where the snowflakes are actually forming, as that determines the snowflake type and density. With the insane WAA modeled at the mid-levels, we can get plenty of lift in the snow growth zone and thus actually get pretty good ratios at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 OKX map thru 12/17 @ 7AM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, uofmiami said: OKX map thru 12/17 @ 7AM: I saw this earlier today. In the AFD they state they are expecting 1-3 for the City and 2-5 pretty much everywhere else. So based on that i would expect those numbers to bump up in the LHV and CT and pretty much stay the same for NYC and LI. OKX & BOX are staying pretty conservative with this, which i think is always a good idea based on climo and when you have the parent low riding up over the great lakes. There are just not too many events like this that produce widespread warning snows, even on the low end. It'll be interesting to see BUFKIT when i have the chance later to check out snow growth potential and determining ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 7 minutes ago, uofmiami said: OKX map thru 12/17 @ 7AM: This is only valid till 7am saturday Bulk of precip falls between 8am-2pm depending on exactly which model your using, but those are the rough times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Euro is a LHV jackpot, Orange Co seeing the most outside elevation with low end warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Slightly off topic, but do we factor in potential sampling issues, with the location of the s/w in the Rocky Mts? Or have those issues been better assimilated into the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 Euro looks a bit cooler this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, dmillz25 said: Euro looks a bit cooler this run All I can tell so far is that is a little quicker. LP is in center of IL at 12Z Sat as opposed to center of Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Euro is pretty similar from its 00z counterpart. Very good consistency among all models for this time range i have to say, pretty much model noise at this point. The LHV and NW CT does better this run, still solid for the rest of CT and NYC into NNJ. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Euro is pretty similar from its 00z counterpart. Very good consistency among all models for this time range i have to say, pretty much model noise at this point. The LHV and NW CT does better this run, still solid for the rest of CT and NYC into NNJ. Good run. Yep. This has been pretty consistent for the last few days 2-4 for the general area and perhaps higher amounts nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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