SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Some AO stats (December 1-14): Average: +0.552 % Days > 0: 57% % Days +1.000 or above: 50% % Days < 0: 43% % Days -1.000 or below: 7% The AO is forecast to rise to +2.000 or above in the medium-range and possibly +3.000 or above. This outcome coupled with the failure for strong blocking to develop suggests that the probability of a blocky winter relative to climatology has diminished. There could still be periods with strong blocking, but a blocky winter overall now appears less likely. In short, we'll probably need help from the Pacific to maximize our opportunities for cold and snow. This does not mean that winter is over and should not be interpreted in such fashion. Early on Cohen's method looks bad again. Although there appears to be some hope still on the ensembles showing the AO dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Some AO stats (December 1-14): Average: +0.552 % Days > 0: 57% % Days +1.000 or above: 50% % Days < 0: 43% % Days -1.000 or below: 7% The AO is forecast to rise to +2.000 or above in the medium-range and possibly +3.000 or above. This outcome coupled with the failure for strong blocking to develop suggests that the probability of a blocky winter relative to climatology has diminished. There could still be periods with strong blocking, but a blocky winter overall now appears less likely. In short, we'll probably need help from the Pacific to maximize our opportunities for cold and snow. This does not mean that winter is over and should not be interpreted in such fashion. The AO is unimportant if you have a big PAC block/-EPO. We saw this in 13-14, 14-15, and 93-94. No huge arctic blocking, no -NAO/AO those winters, but solid ridges over AK and the West Coast. We are seeing the -EPO again this winter. In the long range, models have been trying to warm us up w a GOA low, but time and time again it gets replaced at shorter range with a low cutting west of Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Tail end of the nam so take with a grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 hour ago, nzucker said: In the Feb 2008 SWFE, Central Park got 6.0"...areas to the north like POU had 10".. In February Ocean temps right off NYC/LI are around 10-15 degrees lower than in December. Ocean Temp is still around 50 degrees. This is my worry for Sat morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: That's ugly for NYC. I don't believe we get less than 4 inches with this storm. At least 2-4 honestly nam is a good model but it doesn't do well with these systems it does better with nor'easters Ehh, I'd like to see other models like the Euro increase the front end before being confident of more than 1-3" near the city. Sometimes these can surprise and drop 4 or 5" but sometimes they can disappoint and have the front end be eaten by dry air or the snow come in broken up and the warm air winning quickly. I'm also still wary about the south winds, but heavy snow can keep that at bay for a while, and this will be a very cold airmass for this time of year. The cold frontal boundary will also be interesting to watch, to see if a wave can develop and drop additional snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 This type of a snow set-up, is fairly optimal for 'high confidence' snow You have cold high in place, you have a huge area of forcing ramming into it, so confidence high for 2-4"+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 10 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: That's ugly for NYC. I don't believe we get less than 4 inches with this storm. At least 2-4 honestly nam is a good model but it doesn't do well with these systems it does better with nor'easters It's been spot on, atleast for every event up here this season, I tend to agree, I don't see NYC with less than 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Ehh, I'd like to see other models like the Euro increase the front end before being confident of more than 1-3" near the city. Sometimes these can surprise and drop 4 or 5" but sometimes they can disappoint and have the front end be eaten by dry air or the snow come in broken up and the warm air winning quickly. I'm also still wary about the south winds, but heavy snow can keep that at bay for a while, and this will be a very cold airmass for this time of year. The cold frontal boundary will also be interesting to watch, to see if a wave can develop and drop additional snow. I'm cauticusly optimistic about the low forming along the frontal boundary as well so we wait for the GFS for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1st real regression of totals on the 12z NAM. Not a good sign, idc how long out it is, its been good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 It's the NAM at the tail end. Yes it's been good but can we wait and see what the other models say before making assumptions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: Over half a foot along I95 with a high in that position and moving out? I'm with you on this. The one thing areas along and SE of i95 can hope for is the snow comes in quickly and comes down hard before the warm push. It should all melt quickly anyway but it'd be nice to see 2-4" before the change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 1st real regression of totals on the 12z NAM. Not a good sign, idc how long out it is, its been good. This^ not being a homer... but be weary of models showing far more at NYC than the 84 corridor on a SWFE event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Last weeks models sort of did the same for nw jersey , started showing 4-6 and as we got closer every model lowered them run by run . Reality was 1 inch here . Though it is the nam long range . Gfs was dead on for the last one for my area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 14 minutes ago, Rjay said: I'm with you on this. The one thing areas along and SE of i95 can hope for is the snow comes in quickly and comes down hard before the warm push. It should all melt quickly anyway but it'd be nice to see 2-4" before the change over. I honestly expect this not to be as bad as some are thinking. I think there is virga issues at the start and I don't think the moisture advection is going to be that impressive. IMO this is not a wall of heavy snow thumping on Saturday morning. The next 2 days on the models should be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 19 minutes ago, Rjay said: I'm with you on this. The one thing areas along and SE of i95 can hope for is the snow comes in quickly and comes down hard before the warm push. It should all melt quickly anyway but it'd be nice to see 2-4" before the change over. It really doesn't matter how cold the airmass is, once there's a decent south wind it will be a race on the coast to accumulate snow before the temp charges over 32. The water is still in the upper 40s I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I honestly expect this not to be as bad as some are thinking. I think there is virga issues at the start and I don't think the moisture advection is going to be that impressive. IMO this is not a wall of heavy snow thumping on Saturday morning. The next 2 days on the models should be telling So basically you are going against what SnowGoose said earlier... he stated little to none lost as virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 9 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: Last weeks models sort of did the same for nw jersey , started showing 4-6 and as we got closer every model lowered them run by run . Reality was 1 inch here . Though it is the nam long range . Gfs was dead on for the last one for my area . There was also little moisture for the first round. Had the second round come in quicker while temps were still around freezing most places would have seen more snow. I think this time around we'll have more moisture to work with while temps are still very cold. Maybe 4 to 6 is pushing it but I like 2-3 for the coast and would gladly take that. Its going to mostly melt by sunday anyway unless the cold air really comes in quickly sunday afternoon without the surge into the 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It really doesn't matter how cold the airmass is, once there's a decent south wind it will be a race on the coast to accumulate snow before the temp charges over 32. The water is still in the upper 40s I believe. Yep. That was my point. People always forget this. We've seen temps in the single digits become 40s in the matter of a couple hours. The best our area can hope for is for the snow to come in fast and furious before the warm push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 By 12z Saturday the gfs has 2-4 for the area 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: By 12z Saturday the gfs has 2-4 for the area 12z gfs For Long Island and costal nj the amounts will be lower because of the se wind due to the departing high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, Allsnow said: For Long Island and costal nj the amounts will be lower because of the se wind due to the departing high Amounts are lower than 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 GFS is gonna come down on totals and look more like Nam (slightly better for NYC) 1 minute ago, snow1 said: Amounts are lower than 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 By 18z Saturday rain up to ct. 3-5 away from the immediate coast this run and Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 sounds like a nice thump for the interior. Great start to winter!! Bring It! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 31 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: This^ not being a homer... but be weary of models showing far more at NYC than the 84 corridor on a SWFE event Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Bump I'd definitely take that... 3-5 inches up my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 I'll take it. Looks like 3 inches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 knarly run for the interior. Game On!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 What about that anafrontal wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Bump Seems like the GFS is having a hard time determining what will be falling in NYC area between 12z and 18z on the snow maps. It accounts for the first .2QPF as snow that fails before 12z. Between 12z and 18z an additional .3QPF falls with 850/925 temps starting at -6/-3 (SNOW) and ending up at +2/+3 (clearly NOT frozen). If someone has the 3 hour maps that would help determine how much additional snow we get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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