Allsnow Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 rgem cut back a bit on the snow. still 2-4 for the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: rgem cut back a bit on the snow. still 2-4 for the metro Wouldn't surprise me if inland Ocean County NJ somewhere does better than me with this. S wind is much more of a killer here than for them. Hopefully this comes in as a heavy wall, if it comes in spotty and the December sea breeze kicks in, baammppp. But the models today have been trending a little colder and the secondary low feature development gives some cause for optimism. Anything that can stall the south wind for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Those freezing rain maps are nasty.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Just now, TwcMan said: Those freezing rain maps are nasty.. Lots of already entrenched cold air and potentially a blocking secondary on the coast against warm surface air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 29 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Mt Holly just updated to increase ice danger for central and northern nj Found it very odd that Mt. Holly shows a general 2-3" snowfall in their newly updated snowfall map for Middlesex County (our area), as does the new zone forecast, which says 1-3" of snow and 0.1-0.25" of ice, but the newly updated WWAdvisory says up to 1" of snow and 0.1" of ice. Very inconsistent - I assume the advisory is wrong. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 957 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2016 DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ012-013-015>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-171500- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0016.161217T0300Z-161217T1600Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEW BRUNSWICK... FREEHOLD...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN... CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA... WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE... MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 957 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FORM NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NORTHERN DELAWARE INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH. NJZ012-170900- MIDDLESEX- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NEW BRUNSWICK 930 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2016 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY... .OVERNIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. COLD. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...SNOW...RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATION OF A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. NOT AS COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 20 minutes ago, Allsnow said: rgem cut back a bit on the snow. still 2-4 for the metro On the METEOCENTRE maps its still mostly 4-5 near NYC/LGA. About 12mm liquid which is .47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 00z gfs upped snowfall amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: On the METEOCENTRE maps its still mostly 4-5 near NYC/LGA. About 12mm liquid which is .47 i thin thats counting sleet as snow. TIDBITS maps are to high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Just now, Allsnow said: i thin thats counting sleet as snow. TIDBITS maps are to high They have a separate sleet algorithm on there which does not show any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: 00z gfs upped snowfall amounts 1.3 at Belmar and 0.3 at MacArthur. Not sure I buy that but we'll see. Also significant ice it seems into inland Ocean/Monmouth. If only this storm came on Feb 15th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: They have a separate sleet algorithm on there which does not show any. Sunrise Highway Shaft Zone there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Sunrise Highway Shaft Zone there... It was badly overdoing snow back by TTN on most of its runs up til now. This run it clearly caught on more to the mid-level warming down there and shows the most sleet in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: It was badly overdoing snow back by TTN on most of its runs up til now. This run it clearly caught on more to the mid-level warming down there and shows the most sleet in that area. Definitely in the more inland areas there will be a sleet and ZR changeover period before rain. Models definitely struggle between that and the straight snow to rain change there will be near the coast. And again I think areas in S NJ might have more than a place like me that gets destroyed right away vs some delay by being inland a ways. My call for LB is 1.5", I doubt I'll be up to see if it verifies but hope to be pleasantly surprised to see some slush around still at 9-10am while our northandwestbesties are encased and buried and chipping out one inch at a time vs 3" an hour falling down on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 49 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 1.3 at Belmar and 0.3 at MacArthur. Not sure I buy that but we'll see. Also significant ice it seems into inland Ocean/Monmouth. If only this storm came on Feb 15th... Those maps are screwy. The rgem meteocentre site has much of the area at 10-15 mm LE snow, or 4-5 inches of snow. Yet those pivotal weather maps show 2-3 in the same locales. Seems off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 At this point the HRRR is close to having places like Bronx/NRN Queens/Manhattan not really going liquid til the event is almost over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: At this point the HRRR is close to having places like Bronx/NRN Queens/Manhattan not really going liquid til the event is almost over. Lonnie Quinn going with rain by 8 or 830 am in the city. saw him on the 11 pm news selling x mas trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: At this point the HRRR is close to having places like Bronx/NRN Queens/Manhattan not really going liquid til the event is almost over. Kinda reminds me of the storms that happened 2 winters ago. Up to last minute,the models had shown change to rain,ended up not happening at all or not till next later then originallly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: At this point the HRRR is close to having places like Bronx/NRN Queens/Manhattan not really going liquid til the event is almost over. If the new HRRR is correct, this event overperforms in the city in the next 12 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If the new HRRR is correct, this event overperforms in the city in the next 12 hours... I'm still suspicious because of the setup not being ideal, but maybe the funky little low that forms will make the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Euro is 3-5" for most on the board, relatively unchanged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Well a big transformer blew and knocked out power to most of the Vernon highland lakes area. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhotdog Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 I'm in Souderton which is in eastern pa. Dusting on cars. snow has started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 NWS-Mt. Holly AFD is out. The one change from earlier is that while everyone is still going to warm up into the 40s by sunrise on Sunday morning, that warm-up looks to be much slower than originally thought, mostly due to that weak secondary low forming just off the NJ coast, which will bring in NE surface winds for the afternoon/evening. This means areas north of 78 and especially north of 80 will likely take until late afternoon or even late evening to get above 32F, extending the time for icy conditions on the roads. It won't change snowfall amounts, though, as conditions mostly dry out by early afternoon until early Sunday when the rains come. Here's the latest discussion from the NWS-Philly, posted at 2:52 am. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Prior to 215 AM: flurries have started in e PA. No major changes to the WSW configuration or amounts previously posted. Snow will be developing over most of our forecast area between now and 5 am except may little or no pcpn far southern Delmarva portion of our forecast area or freezing rain/freezing drizzle ice pellets there. Snow should intensify rapidly near sunrise over e PA and the northern two thirds of NJ with potential for 1 to 2 hours of 1/2 mi mdt snow and snow fall acc rate of half an inch to 1 inch an hour, particularly near and north of I-78. Then with 65 to 75 kt sw 850 MB jet nosed into our area near DCA early this morning, warming will occur aloft but lag at the sfc, partly due to the strong waa causing a warm frontal wave of low pressure to scoot newd off the mid-Atlantic midday with subtle cold air damming. That combined with cold ground and now a colder NAM 975MB temp threatens to force an extension of the wxa for ice in ecentral PA newd into nw NJ, high terrain. We lowered guidance temps significantly today, noting the 00z/17 GFS MAV MOS has used the 03z temp as the MAX for today in some of the guidance. So the bulk of the pcpn will fall 11z-17z today with potential for .6 to .7 inches of frozen water equivalent pcpn vcnty KRDG-KMQS to vcnty KPTW. isolated max qpf could be 1" in s NJ. Guidance shows some instability aloft but thunder not introduced into the fcst attm for the Delmarva ptn of our fcst area. There maybe another band or two of light pcpn this aftn/eve in e PA and nw NJ while the main body of the pcpn shield shifts ewd off the NJ/DE coast this aftn. Light wind. Fog may start forming this aftn in the light moist airmass, especially high terrain and Delmarva. We welcome your snow and ice amount reports...location and amount and any other significant info you wish to share on FB/Twitter/Skywarn and NWSchat accounts. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... Either stratus or areas of dense fog developing near the northward moving warm front with the cold air wedge slowly eroding from the top down and south to north. There may be some leftover light freezing rain or freezing drizzle Poconos and high terrain of Sussex County NJ this evening and that may warrant an extension or conversion of the wxa to a freezing rain advy but that decision can wait til this afternoon when we have more certainty of the temps and amounts of any leftover qpf. Would like to get todays forecast correct before expressing any confidence in what will happen tonight. Light wind trending south and think warm air will finally poke northward through the Delmarva to southern NJ and PHL area toward dawn Sunday as the southwest boundary layer increases past 22 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 OKX new map, increased totals a bit in a lot of places that werent 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 The bottom part of the map looks like rainbow colored snow on top of black ice! What are the projected changeover or mix times? Still around 10 AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Moderate snow in manhattan People are already shoveling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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