BxWeatherwatcher Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 gotta love living in the hilly area of the northwest bronx,almost always the last to change over along with inwood and the heights in manhattan. this is one of those situations where we will do very well up here compared to brooklyn and s.i.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM takes a diff approach, coastal develops and becomes primary, really robs the interior of decent snow despite everyone north of rockland staying all snow, RGEM is very cold, central and NNJ/NYC make out better than interior After the ups and downs of this storm this would be a real kick in the ass to most of the HV if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 dense fog looks likely tomorrow night as well with the snowmelt and high moisture airmass moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Tomorrow morning is going to be an absolute mess, looks like we could hold onto some sort of frozen precipitation into at least noon in portions of the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 some of us are going to make some white gold tomorrow just in time for Christmas. Happy plowing and salting to all who this applies to and be safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 12 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: some of us are going to make some white gold tomorrow just in time for Christmas. Happy plowing and salting to all who this applies to and be safe! And just got done with clean ups! we should be plowing tomorrow, hurry up before it melts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Rgem has over a half inch of ice for dca metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 The difference for central jersey on the RGEM compared to other guidance is dramatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 The tail end of the HRRR hammers NNJ and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 HRRR and RAP both agree with 2-3" OTG by 8am and still snowing for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 8 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: some of us are going to make some white gold tomorrow just in time for Christmas. Happy plowing and salting to all who this applies to and be safe! Sure hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: And just got done with clean ups! we should be plowing tomorrow, hurry up before it melts i should could get some pretty good CAD around Somerville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 24 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: gotta love living in the hilly area of the northwest bronx,almost always the last to change over along with inwood and the heights in manhattan. this is one of those situations where we will do very well up here compared to brooklyn and s.i.. Yeah, I feel good about my position (for once). Granted, I'm not as far north - just outside Fordham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Moderate freezing rain arriving around 8 am on GFS and persisting for several hours across NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Moderate freezing rain arriving around 8 am on GFS and persisting for several hours across NNJ. still snowing hard in upper manhattan the bronx at 8 a.m per this chart..if that verifies then we easily see over 4+ inches up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 31 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM takes a diff approach, coastal develops and becomes primary, really robs the interior of decent snow despite everyone north of rockland staying all snow, RGEM is very cold, central and NNJ/NYC make out better than interior Models seem to be picking up on the enhanced banding by the rain/snow line in nw suffolk and n. Nassau. I would be shocked if the above verified. 2 in on the barrier islands and 5 inches IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Moderate freezing rain arriving around 8 am on GFS and persisting for several hours across NNJ. No doubt it will be ugly when everyone wakes up tomorrow morning. Looks like the snow begins around midnight give or take, goes to sleet and freezing rain around 9:00am or so then everything should shutoff completely and dryslot around noon. The meso low formation locking the cold air in and freezing rain is going to make for a real problem north and west of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Models seem to be picking up on the enhanced banding by the rain/snow line in nw suffolk and n. Nassau. I would be shocked if the above verified. 2 in on the barrier islands and 5 inches IMBY. I know this really should go in Met thread, but it pertains to this event and it's a great video from Bernie Rayno http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/snow-friday-into-saturday-including-nyc-and-philly/2430839568001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 14 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I know this really should go in Met thread, but it pertains to this event and it's a great video from Bernie Rayno http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/snow-friday-into-saturday-including-nyc-and-philly/2430839568001 Doesn't really address ice at all... too bad he won't be posting another until post event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Been discussing in Philly subforum but we have a record low 500mb PV for December in SE Canada influencing our weather here. Largest anomaly since 1948 IIRC. There is also a weak surface wave off of S NJ that the short range hi-res models are seeing as more and more of a player. This is somewhat unchartered territory and there will be icy surprises tomorrow for many. 18z rgem never even turns to plain rain here at all in SE PA now. The trend colder at 2m is clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Moderate freezing rain arriving around 8 am on GFS and persisting for several hours across NNJ. Wouldnt the higher resloution NAM 12km-3km and rgem for example be of better use at this time irt low level cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Wouldnt the higher resloution NAM 12km-3km and rgem for example be kf better use at this time irt low level cold? They are all showing the same thing pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 They are all showing the same thing pretty much.True, at least up your way. Down here in SE PA the GFS vs the short range hi res stuff is like night and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: True, at least up your way. Down here in SE PA the GFS vs the short range hi res stuff is like night and day. The NAM is just a little warmer than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 The NAM is just a little warmer than the GFS. Is that the 32km NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Still like my original thinking of 3-5" of snow for the NYC metro area, freezing rain/ice accumulation obviously becoming more of a concern now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is that the 32km NAM? It's the 12KM. I think that it's deepening the LP too fast and eroding the CAD sig too too soon. The 4KM NAM and GFS aren't as amped up and maintain the CAD a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 22z hrrr continues the trend. Snowier, icier, colder.....fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 It's the 12KM. I think that it's deepening the LP too fast and eroding the CAD sig too too soon. The 4KM NAM and GFS aren't as amped up and maintain the CAD a little longer.Agreed. I really find the 4km useful in these situations. That record 500mb height anomaly is the elephant in the room with this forecast imo and of course that weak coastal wave which looks to be just enough of a player to keep llc from scouring out as quickly as we thought 36 hrs+ ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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