Allsnow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: That frontal wave that the models have been focusing in on more in recent runs isn't such good with more sleet and freezing rain. This would lock in colder temps near the surface especially away from the coast while the LLJ rips with strong WAA aloft. So areas can see more icing than the models were showing a few days ago. Tomorrow is a big shopping day and travel across the interior could be very slick. We are less then 24 hours out so now you start to look for trends on these short range models. Somebody in central Pa and nw jersey is going to get a decent amount of ice. Plus we are clouding over already to help keep temps down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 There was a similar event I recall in January 09. I believe 3 to 6 was predicted with a warm-up and change to rain at night but the radar looked like crap the morning of and I think most areas ended up with a general 1 to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We are less then 24 hours out so now you start to look for trends on these short range models. Somebody in central Pa and nw jersey is going to get a decent amount of ice. Plus we are clouding over already to help keep temps down I also think you can add the LHV into the mix too... I am still at 18 degrees... It's supposed to get to 27 today can't see that happening at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: I also think you can add the LHV into the mix too... I am still at 18 degrees... It's supposed to get to 27 today can't see that happening at all! 18/9 here too. Forecast high is 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I also think you can add the LHV into the mix too... I am still at 18 degrees... It's supposed to get to 27 today can't see that happening at all! I'm suppose to get to 25F I'm sitting at 16, with cloud cover rolling in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'm suppose to get to 25F I'm sitting at 16, with cloud cover rolling in http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Ggem still gives more to NYC than interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 My temp is currently 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Upton mentions temperature departures below forecasted with low probability in the event cold air lingers of .25" ice for portions of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 35 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We are less then 24 hours out so now you start to look for trends on these short range models. Somebody in central Pa and nw jersey is going to get a decent amount of ice. Plus we are clouding over already to help keep temps down You can see the strong surface CAD sig on both the GFS and NAM for NNJ while the WAA cranks up aloft tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: You can see the strong surface CAD sig on both the GFS and NAM for NNJ while the WAA cranks up aloft tomorrow morning. Yea starting to think some places get a good bit of sleet and/or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 7 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Yea starting to think some places get a good bit of sleet and/or freezing rain. You can see it on the GFS P-type panels pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 43 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We are less then 24 hours out so now you start to look for trends on these short range models. Somebody in central Pa and nw jersey is going to get a decent amount of ice. Plus we are clouding over already to help keep temps down If the models are correct with the jet streak aloft helping to form a meso surface low offshore on the coastal front, it is going to get very very dangerous north and west of the city. Major freezing rain issues. That would help lock the surface cold in longer as the ripping low level jet out of the south warms the mid levels ahead of the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 13 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: How much? 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Could be I'm missing something, but why does the NWS have advisories up for the I-95 corridor from Trenton to NYC for 1-2" of snowfall, when the criterion is 3" or more for those counties? Is it the risk of "a few hundredths of an inch" of ice? And especially for counties in NJ/DE which are SE of I-95 and only expecting an inch or less of snow (and those counties have a 2" advisory criterion). They also almost always issue an advisory for the first significant accumulation of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 GFS colder and much more QPF during cold period....nice 2-4/3-5 region wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Kind of bummed I'll be missing this one but glad to be out of the frigid air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: They also almost always issue an advisory for the first significant accumulation of the season. That was the reasoning for last Sunday's unexpected advisories for counties south of 78. Was almost certain it wouldn't verify (we got a whole 1/4" of snow), yet we had advisories. I'm pretty sure the rationale today is the ice threat, as I had speculated and others have confirmed; the snow amounts aren't enough. Especially when the NWS Mt. Holly update at 9:30 am was talking about increased likelihood of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 7 minutes ago, RU848789 said: That was the reasoning for last Sunday's unexpected advisories for counties south of 78. Was almost certain it wouldn't verify (we got a whole 1/4" of snow), yet we had advisories. I'm pretty sure the rationale today is the ice threat, as I had speculated and others have confirmed; the snow amounts aren't enough. Especially when the NWS Mt. Holly update at 9:30 am was talking about increased likelihood of ZR. Yes, they issue an advisory even for a light glaze because of how dangerous it can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Ggem hits LI, NJ harder than Ulster county and north. 3-5 v. 2-3. Not sure I buy it but I will take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Every model now has a new low just south of NYC which helps the colder solutions. That's why the models are colder today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 This isnt a city/coast thread, and it isnt the banter thread. Knock it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 EURO looks slightly colder at 12z. Still -5C 850 temps around NYC/LI at 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2-4 inches on the Euro for the NYC area Every model now has at least 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Euro is colder and wetter for the area. Ice threat bigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 HRRR brings in precip around 11pm-12am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro is colder and wetter for the area. Ice threat bigger It nice to see the Euro/GFS/ and NAM agree for a change 24 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: It nice to see the Euro/GFS/ and NAM agree for a change 24 hrs out. Props to the nam (if it's right of course) hasn't budged from 84hr out on its colder solution nams been great this year in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 13 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Props to the nam (if it's right of course) hasn't budged from 84hr out on its colder solution nams been great this year in this pattern Has been an easier pattern even long range for the EPS in the East with only a slight cold bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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