UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Nam, interior looks locked for 2-5", maybe 6 or more in pockets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 WWA for 4-6", sounds like a reasonable call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Words of caution: There will be icing conditions on any untreated surfaces even at the coast for an hour or two after the surface temp rises above freezing and it is raining Saturday because the ground has been below freezing for around 48 hours or more by Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 38 minutes ago, weathermedic said: Words of caution: There will be icing conditions on any untreated surfaces even at the coast for an hour or two after the surface temp rises above freezing and it is raining Saturday because the ground has been below freezing for around 48 hours or more by Saturday morning. Maybe in some rural areas, but certainly not on any roads in NYC or the surrounding suburbs in NE Jersey. Once a winter storm is underway and the temperature rises above 32 degrees, its all over. At least I have never seen this happen. If the precip were to start a little after the temperature went above the freezing mark, you could get a quick glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 4km NAM looks a bit better on the sim maps then the 12km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 The NAM has been cooling little by little since yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2-4 for the area on the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 4k is a solid 3-4" for NYC maybe more if we get good snow growth and little virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 2-4 for the area on the Nam Who is the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Upton As far as snow totals, 1-2 inches are expected for Long Island and New York City, 2-4 inches for coastal Connecticut, Eastern Bergen,Essex and Union, and 4-6 inches elsewhere (closer to 4 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 3 minutes ago, Animal said: Who is the area? NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Looks like changeover begins around 8 am on 4km for southern portions of NYC and the South Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 Clouds already starting to filter in. Could probably keep the temps down a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 rgem colder and more qpf then the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Could be I'm missing something, but why does the NWS have advisories up for the I-95 corridor from Trenton to NYC for 1-2" of snowfall, when the criterion is 3" or more for those counties? Is it the risk of "a few hundredths of an inch" of ice? And especially for counties in NJ/DE which are SE of I-95 and only expecting an inch or less of snow (and those counties have a 2" advisory criterion). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, RU848789 said: Could be I'm missing something, but why does the NWS have advisories up for the I-95 corridor from Trenton to NYC for 1-2" of snowfall, when the criterion is 3" or more for those counties? Is it the risk of "a few hundredths of an inch" of ice? And especially for counties in NJ/DE which are SE of I-95 and only expecting an inch or less of snow (and those counties have a 2" advisory criterion). Ice potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 Nice to see the models trending colder with more qpf. Could be some surprises I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 18z? This was on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 nam 12z less qpf to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 some decent lift early tomorrow morning on the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 12 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Could be I'm missing something, but why does the NWS have advisories up for the I-95 corridor from Trenton to NYC for 1-2" of snowfall, when the criterion is 3" or more for those counties? Is it the risk of "a few hundredths of an inch" of ice? And especially for counties in NJ/DE which are SE of I-95 and only expecting an inch or less of snow (and those counties have a 2" advisory criterion). They issued an advisory Sunday as well when there was no ice and not even an inch of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 12z gfs around .40 frozen but some of that is sleet. Pretty decent glaze of ice in nw jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 GFS increased city and LI totals too. Moderately intrigued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: nam 12z less qpf to start Huge difference, especially north and west on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2-4 on the gfs for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: GFS increased city and LI totals too. Moderately intrigued. I'll be paying attention to the radar later-if the snow looks like a heavy solid shield it might overperform near the coast. If it starts breaking up, then the lower end is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Wow, models really have low level cold/cool air hanging around longer as well...still has 30's holding tough in VA/DC late Sat morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 2-4 on the gfs for nyc its 1-2 those maps on tidbits count sleet as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 That frontal wave that the models have been focusing in on more in recent runs isn't such good with more sleet and freezing rain. This would lock in colder temps near the surface especially away from the coast while the LLJ rips with strong WAA aloft. So areas can see more icing than the models were showing a few days ago. Tomorrow is a big shopping day and travel across the interior could be very slick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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