dmillz25 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Models so far have shown snow to ice/rain event for the weekend. Discuss away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 GFS looks good for 2-4"/3-5" region wide than mix and rain....although a warm enough push eventually for a wash out of any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 3-5 inches for the area on the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just now, Zelocita Weather said: GFS looks good for 2-4"/3-5" region wide than mix and rain....although a warm enough push eventually for a wash out of any snow. Most of the precip is over when it turns to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 12z Cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Most of the precip is over when it turns to rain Well, if the rain doesn't get it, the 50+ temps to follow will, as will the subsequent frontal rains. The GFS is also hinting at a tenth or so of anafrontal snow - I'm always leery of these scenarios, but bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 22 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: GFS looks good for 2-4"/3-5" region wide than mix and rain....although a warm enough push eventually for a wash out of any snow. I dont see much precip after the WAA snows. Nothing falls after hour 102. Dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 The high positioning sucks, but the main difference is the air mass is colder this time. Also the lead shortwave responsible for the overrunning is within faster flow and a pattern over the Midwest/Lakes less conducive to amplification. The trailing low which eventually develops over KS/MO also has an impact there. So I think the outbreak of snows is much more south this time around and not necessarily a ton of room for this to amplify and end up more north. The major concern could be the high departs faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 The snow should stick fairly quickly at the start right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 19 minutes ago, ag3 said: I dont see much precip after the WAA snows. Nothing falls after hour 102. Dry slot. 2-4 Saturday morning to pushing 60 Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, mriceyman said: The snow should stick fairly quickly at the start right? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 2-4 Saturday morning to pushing 60 Sunday morning Unless its one of those situations where the warm front stalls south of the area, but either way drizzle and snow eating fog seem likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 12z euro is a little dry for the initial over running. Sv maps have 1-2 then sleet/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 12z euro is a little dry for the initial over running. Sv maps have 1-2 then sleet/ice. For the entire METRO area including NW of the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, bluewave said: 2mT's go to town on Sunday with mid-60's. Upper 50's into ski country...just brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: For the entire METRO area including NW of the city? N+w is 2-5 until you hit Sullivan county 6-8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 We'll see how long the snow lasts in the city and near the coast when we have pretty strong south winds as the snow comes in. Hopefully it comes in like a wall so that the warming is delayed and maybe the precip lulls before really going to rain. It's meaningless in the end with temps surging over 50 but it can at least pad totals. It's hard for me to think more than 1-3" falls near the coast with that setup but stranger things have happened. Away from the coast is probably more like 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: 2-4 Saturday morning to pushing 60 Sunday morning The ECMWF is very impressive with the warmth Sunday morning (+17°C/63°F) around NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Upper 50's into ski country...just brutal At least for ski country the warm up is short lived so hopefully it doesnt kill too much of what has been a great December so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: euro has been really lousy lately, not even worth paying attention to anymore! Its QPF has been brutal. It always has been a dry model IMO, but some of the Lakes/Upper Midwest stations it was way off on this last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 6 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: euro has been really lousy lately, not even worth paying attention to anymore! It didn't do too badly with the cold that's coming later this week. If the latest guidance is right, it may have been a little overdone. The ensemble signal for cold around mid-month was quite strong. It will be interesting to see if the ensemble signal for a milder than normal Christmas/Hanukkah will be accurate. The signal isn't quite as strong as the one for this week's cold shot was. As Snowgoose69 noted, it hasn't done all that well with QPF. That seems to have been a continuing theme since its last upgrade prior to the most recent one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, mriceyman said: At least for ski country the warm up is short lived so hopefully it doesnt kill too much of what has been a great December so far They'll be fine, any water in the pack will just help to prolong it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 18 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We'll see how long the snow lasts in the city and near the coast when we have pretty strong south winds as the snow comes in. Hopefully it comes in like a wall so that the warming is delayed and maybe the precip lulls before really going to rain. It's meaningless in the end with temps surging over 50 but it can at least pad totals. It's hard for me to think more than 1-3" falls near the coast with that setup but stranger things have happened. Away from the coast is probably more like 3-5". Those winds won't be as strong as it looks. I was fooled by this last event too, the S winds did not really kick up til almost 06Z. Had we not dry slotted we'd have gotten a pretty good shot of snow. This one I'd say its 15Z or so before the south wind really cranks up. My feeling is anything up through 15Z near NYC could be snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 16 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: They'll be fine, any water in the pack will just help to prolong it. Does any "prolonging" effect of rainfall really outweigh the initial melting though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Those winds won't be as strong as it looks. I was fooled by this last event too, the S winds did not really kick up til almost 06Z. Had we not dry slotted we'd have gotten a pretty good shot of snow. This one I'd say its 15Z or so before the south wind really cranks up. My feeling is anything up through 15Z near NYC could be snowing. Yeah, but that's like saying, "If the low undercut us, we'd have stayed all snow." A massive dry slot was a given for that storm - this one will also have a dry slot, but stronger storm dynamics, a much colder antecedent airmass, and a steeper sloped isentropic boundary means a more pronounced front end thump of the good stuff. If I recall, 96-97 had a lot of these 1-3/3-5" front enders before screaming southerlies, warm sector, and rain... was a junior in HS and recall many mornings with decaying snow cover and fog after an evening/overnight with snow. That winter was really odd, bookened for me in FFD Cty, CT by two solid Dec storms (both of the rain to snow variety) and the 4/1 monster with 16". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Does any "prolonging" effect of rainfall really outweigh the initial melting though? Up north yes. Get water into the base and let it freeze. Subsequent snows after that will allow all of the gremlins and snowsnakes to be hidden and it will ride that much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 6 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Does any "prolonging" effect of rainfall really outweigh the initial melting though? Yes** if you believe the GFS, doesn't really go above 40 in ski country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: We'll see how long the snow lasts in the city and near the coast when we have pretty strong south winds as the snow comes in. Hopefully it comes in like a wall so that the warming is delayed and maybe the precip lulls before really going to rain. It's meaningless in the end with temps surging over 50 but it can at least pad totals. It's hard for me to think more than 1-3" falls near the coast with that setup but stranger things have happened. Away from the coast is probably more like 3-5". I honestly don't think the moisture from the initial isentropic stuff Friday night and Saturday morning is going to be all that impressive. I think it's a virga fest initially for quite awhile with the overrunning WAA which eats up probably quite a bit of that snow qpf. The surface arctic air is going to be insanely dry, dewpoints will be crazy low Friday night. The Euro's idea of a general 1-3 inches for the metro area by Saturday afternoon may actually be close to reality. I just don't see a ton of moisture advection and a wall of heavy snow pushing up and thumping ahead of that warm front. I think this is basically a light snow event, ending probably as some sleet and freezing drizzle north and west of the city around noon or so on Saturday as the mid levels warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 18z GFS ticks up totals now. ~5" for NYC Nam looks like it would be rather snowy as well. Surprisingly quiet in here after so many posts for an obviously DOA "event" for most last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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