Snow Showers in SNE Wednesday morning, December 15th 2016

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Ladies and gentlemen of New England, tonight I am ready to say that snow showers are looking more and more likely as a shortwave disturbance runs through the upper level flow spurning off a coastal low pressure system off the DE/MD coastline come Tuesday night.  The blossoming precipitation shield will clip Cape and Islands and SE MA with snow showers as the shortwave amplifies some in the flow ahead of a negatively tilted upper level vortex known as the polar vortex ahead of a cold front that will begin to usher in the arctic air mass, but a secondary frontal wave will spurn cyclogenesis off the NC coastline come hour 60 and clip the region again with a chance for snow showers Thursday night into Friday before the secondary arctic front delivers snow squalls inland and ocean enhanced precip over the coastline of New England.  It is with this airmass where 850mb temps are below -25C regionwide and create high instability over the Cape Cod Bay and perhaps lead to ocean effect snows if the wind behaves but right now that is not forecasted well with the models.  Stay tuned, as a few inches could coat your lawn and the roadways in the next three to four days.

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GFS beginning to catch onto the coastal idea for SNE coastline.  Although it isn't a huge difference the difference is there with the handling of the upper level flow ahead of the shortwave that induces surface cyclogenesis off the NC coastline, if the flow becomes more southwest to northeast then the storm will come closer to the coastline.

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Models have decent frontogenesis developing over the South Coast of New England, I think a general 1-3" isolated 2-4" amounts are possible from Coastal CT to Cape and Islands.

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This system just brought rain showers, but the arctic front will sweep through with heavy snow squalls