mappy Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I'm all about 18z GFS. 6+ imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 For Sunday Night too? That's what I was referring to, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Waves on boundaries are best not picked apart at long leads. The real estate they cover is tiny and the edges are sharp. They can hit nice though. We had one in Jan 14 IIRC but it didn't really show us in the game until 3-4 day leads. It wobbled all over guidance before that. I expect this one to do the same through this weekend. Hopefully the stars align Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Waves on boundaries are best not picked apart at long leads. The real estate they cover is tiny and the edges are sharp. They can hit nice though. We had one in Jan 14 IIRC but it didn't really show us in the game until 3-4 day leads. It wobbled all over guidance before that. I expect this one to do the same through this weekend. Hopefully the stars align Let's just do both. Sat and the following wave. I really can't wait to compare this mornings run to Fridays run. We are still in this. Yeah we're behind in the fourth quarter but it's not insides kick and Hail Mary time yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 hour ago, mappy said: I'm all about 18z GFS. 6+ imby I told you yesterday that you would do well. If I can't get much I hope at least you guys do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Waves on boundaries are best not picked apart at long leads. The real estate they cover is tiny and the edges are sharp. They can hit nice though. We had one in Jan 14 IIRC but it didn't really show us in the game until 3-4 day leads. It wobbled all over guidance before that. I expect this one to do the same through this weekend. Hopefully the stars align Agree. I just am liking the trends... let's see if it continues on the 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I told you yesterday that you would do well. If I can't get much I hope at least you guys do.Thanks! I know my kiddo would be happy about it. She picked out new snow boots, but I said she couldn't have them until Christmas...unless it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 If one is to accept the 00z NAM at LR, DC is firmly snow at 12z SAT ETA: Or not... darn you 750mb warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 4 minutes ago, yoda said: If one is to accept the 00z NAM at LR, DC is firmly snow at 12z SAT Nope. Warm layer below 850. Looks like sleet. But..it's the 84 hour NAM, so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, stormtracker said: Nope. Warm layer below 850. Looks like sleet. Yup, thought we could sneak by... but nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Probably spent too much time delving into the 18z GEFS... but there are certainly some very tasty ensemble members like p013 and p016 for the upcoming week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I though the nam's were just being nam's but now the gfs has a solid dusting to half inch through the metros and close burbs tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I though the nam's were just being nam's but now the gfs has a solid dusting to half inch through the metros and close burbs tomorrow night. Yup, looks nice as an appetizer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Yup, looks nice as an appetizer Might be the main event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, Bob Chill said: Might be the main event lol'd. This is what we've come to. Smh. Might be truer than you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Might be the main event i don't think so... we have 3 chances in the next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, stormtracker said: lol'd. This is what we've come to. Smh. Might be truer than you know. I'm becoming quicky disinterested in fri-sat. It's slipped quite a bit from even the mediocre stuff after the euro hook run. If it all goes to heck I don't really care much anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'm becoming quicky disinterested in fri-sat. It's slipped quite a bit from even the mediocre stuff after the euro hook run. If it all goes to heck I don't really care much anymore. Got to that point after 6z this AM. On to the next ghost..next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I don't like the looks of the GFS early on, the best lift as the WAA band develops Friday evening looks aimed to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 snowing at 9z. yay i guess. For at least 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 FZRA at 12z. So like an hour of snow probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 wow and so much for the idea that we were good through 12z Saturday from a day ago. By 12z the thermal profile is shot across the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Rain by 10 am. So looks like 6 hours of frozen, then washed away. I mean, it's something I reckon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: wow and so much for the idea that we were good through 12z Saturday from a day ago. By 12z the thermal profile is shot across the entire area. You mean 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 GFS continues to shift everything north a little bit each run. It's been doing it a while, 5 runs ago it actually had the best snows to the southwest of DC, now its way up to our northeast. We finally ran out of room for any more adjustments and so this one shifted things pretty much north of us. Yea still a little something but if this trend continues this might very well turn into absolutely nothing, the entire WAA precip shield could end up going to our north and we dry slot before we even get anything. Like bob I am kinda losing interest in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: wow and so much for the idea that we were good through 12z Saturday from a day ago. By 12z the thermal profile is shot across the entire area. The 850 line will probably be in Delaware by 12z with tomorrow's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I have a good feeling for Sun Night into Mon Night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: GFS continues to shift everything north a little bit each run. It's been doing it a while, 5 runs ago it actually had the best snows to the southwest of DC, now its way up to our northeast. We finally ran out of room for any more adjustments and so this one shifted things pretty much north of us. Yea still a little something but if this trend continues this might very well turn into absolutely nothing, the entire WAA precip shield could end up going to our north and we dry slot before we even get anything. Like bob I am kinda losing interest in this one. That was my biggest concern a few days ago.getting dry slotted as precip gets shot to out north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, yoda said: You mean 15z no 12z, this is 850 at 12z and keep in mind there is a warm layer above this level as well. All the guidance continues to shift the thermal profiles north each run. Were losing this one at this point if the trend doesn't reverse soon. Still time to see things shift back but another few jumps north and it won't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, Ji said: That was my biggest concern a few days ago.getting dry slotted as precip gets shot to out north yes, but keep in mind that and the temps go hand in hand. The reason the precip is going to our north is because the entire thermal boundary is shifting north, the precip is a result of the WAA hitting the cold boundary and being forced up and over creating lift. Overrunning... No cold, no resistance, no lift. If were not into the deep enough cold air the warm air just pushed it out of the way and the lift isnt significant enough to create much precip. Some flurries and snizzle but the real stuff goes north along the boundary of the true cold air. The whole thing is shifting north not just the precip. The real problem is the temp profile, but that has been the problem this whole pattern. Remember 10 days ago how cold this looked. We had a couple days below normal, otherwise its been about normal the last week...now we will have 2 truly cold days, then back to normal or slightly above. The cold has been overestimated constantly by the guidance over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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