WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 4 days. It can still get worse. Or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 4 days. It can still get worse. Or better. There's going to be at least one suite where it goes back to that smokin' Euro run where we got crushed. And then 2 cycles before the event, troll face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro ens support the op with the north shift in the waa shield while the column is good. That closes out the 12z suite. Event is looking pretty tame at this point. Taken as a whole with ggem and other guidance weighted in some, I think we're still sliding the wrong way. It's still close enough with time to turn it around but it's getting to the point we need to north trend to stop now. Much more and a shift south at the end won't help much. Euro is starting to take the true thump zone pretty far north of our area now. Gfs still kinda has it but it's been trending north each run on the gfs also just less so. Time to get a reverse at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 54 minutes ago, high risk said: Ok, I'll bite. What the heck do you mean by this?? I'm giving weenies hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, H2O said: I'm giving weenies hope. judging by by the length of these 2 threads they sure need it, tyvm lol!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, H2O said: I'm giving weenies hope. ok, I can't argue with THAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: There's going to be at least one suite where it goes back to that smokin' Euro run where we got crushed. And then 2 cycles before the event, troll face. That is when Lucy comes out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, high risk said: ok, I can't argue with THAT. 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: There's going to be at least one suite where it goes back to that smokin' Euro run where we got crushed. And then 2 cycles before the event, troll face. 18z GFS happy hour will be it... lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 9 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z GFS happy hour will be it... lock it up Man I hope. So many great memories over the years of people flippin out at 18z. Times are changing... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Man I hope. So many great memories over the years of people flippin out at 18z. Times are changing... :-) Need a Happy Hour Save! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 18z 12k NAM is virga-tastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 18z NAM at LR looks fine... starts snowing around 01z Friday Night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just now, yoda said: 18z NAM at LR looks fine... starts snowing around 01z Friday Night It had a better look over the plains than 12z did, IMO. Just looking for glimmers at this point. h5 is a little less amped out west and therefore flatter in front. Perhaps it can get further south for us by game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 12z GFS para looks like 2-3 for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Is the pooh-poohing for snow or for all wintry precipitation? How much ice are we looking at before warming up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Hugging the para like a long lost friend. 2-3 before a flip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 5 minutes ago, Chase said: Is the pooh-poohing for snow or for all wintry precipitation? How much ice are we looking at before warming up? Just the snow part. Overall the trend has been towards a nuisance event in general though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 It's 84 hour nam but it looks good lol I'll hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I found some good news. NY NJ PA Weather @nynjpaweather 32m32 minutes ago Interesting note, ECMWF takes WPO and EPO back down to negative as quickly as it goes positive in latest guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I don't like this setup regardless of whether or not we get a 4" storm before the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 27 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z NAM at LR looks fine... starts snowing around 01z Friday Night simulated reflectivity may show echoes over us by then, but if you look at QPF, nothing has reached the ground by 6z. That said, if you extrapolate, snow would be arriving soon after 6z, and the low levels are pretty darned cold at that time, so your comment that the end of the run looks good is certainly valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I hear the CRAS is a bad model so I asked and was told it was good. Not sure if I was being trolled or not. Assuming it is at least okay what does it show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just now, PaEasternWX said: I hear the CRAS is a bad model so I asked and was told it was good. Not sure if I was being trolled or not. Assuming it is at least okay what does it show. Top 3 model, easily. Bob Chill gives it a lot of weight in his forecasts. Ignore it at your peril. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Top 3 model, easily. Bob Chill gives it a lot of weight in his forecasts. Ignore it at your peril. Agreed. Best model NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 hours ago, high risk said: Ok, I'll bite. What the heck do you mean by this?? he's a troll. ignore him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: I hear the CRAS is a bad model so I asked and was told it was good. Not sure if I was being trolled or not. Assuming it is at least okay what does it show. You should hug it like DT does the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 4 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: I hear the CRAS is a bad model so I asked and was told it was good. Not sure if I was being trolled or not. Assuming it is at least okay what does it show. CRAS picked up one of the 2009/2010 storms first and held serve. we hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 19 minutes ago, leo1000 said: I found some good news. NY NJ PA Weather @nynjpaweather 32m32 minutes ago Interesting note, ECMWF takes WPO and EPO back down to negative as quickly as it goes positive in latest guidance. The long long range trends are improving. Hints that the ugly look it transient and not a long term stable pattern. A reshuffle is good as this current pattern is likely to be more frustrating then rewarding overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Eps left the door open for Hail Mary type hope in a system next week. The mean only went up 1/2" but we lost about an inch on the Saturday mess so for the period after the mean actually jumped about 1-1.5". More to the nw of the city then to the se. Enough members have a hit, about 15, to say it's a threat even if a long shot. 0z was bordering on no signal at all. Marginal improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 8 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: From your guys sarcasm it seems like at the very least it isn't great. So how much weight should be put in it. Depends. By any chance do you get your news from Facebook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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