Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 CMC sucks. Has the 850 line moving towards annapolis @ 12z sat. Very brief 1-2 and quick flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 We take 12z GGEM and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: CMC sucks. Has the 850 line moving towards annapolis @ 12z sat. Very brief 1-2 and quick flip. 1 minute ago, yoda said: We take 12z GGEM and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I would argue that the 850 line is close enough for good snows... just a lil bit more south and we are good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just now, stormtracker said: Really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Expectations I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 Soundings are forecasts, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just now, yoda said: I would argue that the 850 line is close enough for good snows... just a lil bit more south and we are good There's a warm layer above 850. Precip will be turn to sleet before the 850 line retreats. CMC sucked imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just now, Bob Chill said: There's a warm layer above 850. Precip will be turn to sleet before the 850 line retreats. CMC sucked imo. How deep is it? That would matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How deep is it? That would matter. I don't even need to look at soundings. We need leeway with strong sw flow like we're going to have and the high running away like a sissy does us no favors. There is little to no leeway being shown today. It's all on the edge. It's easy to forecast our area when things are marginal. Go with the lower end of guidance and keep up the batting average. The problem with the CMC is it's already low verbatim so reality would be worse. I'm just discussing model output though. Of course things can trend better but right now it's looking pretty blah in the snow dept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 22 minutes ago, HighStakes said: I would take it in a minute. Looks like we flip by 9. do you have inter hours somewhere? I can only see 12z/18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, mappy said: do you have inter hours somewhere? I can only see 12z/18z I have the text output from Accuwx. that gives me something to go by but it's still a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 I've saved the surface frame for 12z Saturday. On Friday morning, I'll be curious to see what it looks like. I give it a 50/50 chance of looking completely different. Hopefully better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: I have the text output from Accuwx. that gives me something to go by but it's still a guess. cool, thanks. would be nice if we could hold the cold longer and flip later, but i'll take whatever we can get at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 Christmas looks like a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 Would love to see the math behind this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Would love to see the math behind this map. Crop Circle Predictions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 What happens as we approach a winter event! Looks great and then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 18 out of 20 12z GEFS ensembles have DCA with at least 2" of snow for the upcoming "storm"... its harder to tell how many are around 4", but I would guess probably 6 or so... 3 are near 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 as far as my grass...there is no difference between this december and last december. Both disasters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just now, Ji said: as far as my grass...there is no difference between this december and last december. Both disasters you need to get the hell out of NOVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Starting today I am splitting the Saturday thing off from my general comments on the long range since its now getting close enough to look at it in a bit more detail on its own. Looking just at Saturday things are sort of bleeding the wrong way from where we want it and has been for about 60 hours now if you take the entire 5 runs including ensembles as a whole. That said, we are still 4 days out and things are close enough that we are in the game for a small to moderate event. None of us was expecting it but the odds of a more significant event like a few of those euro runs showed is almost dead. The low is just going to track too far NW and the high is a little southeast of where we need it for that. But we could still pull a moderate thump surprise out of this if things trend our way in the next few days. Like I said a while ago keep it close going into the final 48 hours and were still in the game. As of now its still close. The trends our not our friend, right now taken as a whole the guidance would indicate the best zone for a decent snow would be just north of our area. But trends can flip at any moment and plenty of times in the last few years these types of situations trended south in the final few days. As the system comes across there is really not much resistance to the WAA across the middle of the country. The center of the cold is way too far east by that time and there is no help from the topography there. But once east of the Apps suddenly both topography and the proximity of the departing high/cold creates enough resistance from the arctic boundary to create the lift necessary for a zone of decent snow to break out. Worrying too much about exact location of the warm layer and minor adjustments run to run of a 1 degree warm layer. The way this always goes is wherever the heavy precip breaks out along the boundary of WAA overrunning will get a quick thump. The heavy precip will aid in dynamic cooling and keep the column cold just long enough for MOST of that heavy precip zone to do good. Focus on where the models put that feature as we get closer. Even once they get a decent idea of the general area, where exactly the heavy band sets up is a nowcast thing. It will be a relatively small area that gets something good and most around there get a very minor event. Keep us in the general area and we have a shot. Right now just north of us is favored but its not decided by any measure. Below you can see the low to our west is just a bit northwest of where we want it for a good WAA thump snow, the high is quite a bit southeast of where we need it, and too much energy hanging back slowing down the progress east as the cold retreats. Those 3 are working against us here. Still all of that still has time to trend a bit better and the cold is sufficient enough to give us a chance at something just on that alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, mappy said: you need to get the hell out of NOVA its so painful live here. If you take out the 7 or 8 once in a lifetime storms we have had since 1993....it would be the worst snow drought of all time for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Do we need to wait for the SW to get on shore for better sampling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 A good amount of the 12z GFS ensembles seem to like next week quite alot... (Monday into Tuesday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 great post, PSU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Would love to see the math behind this map. Looks like Charlie Brown's Halloween costume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Looks like we get three chances in teh next week for snow... one tonight with no accumulation... Friday night into Saturday... and Monday into Tuesday per ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 This is a completely acceptable h5 panel. One of the best we've seen in a few days for late in the period. Roll the ridge in the GOA into the EPO region please and lets take some chances. Even verbatim is pretty good for prime winter climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 so. can i hug the gfs for the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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