December Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If you dig into the GEFS a little it looks like the window around the 7th is ok for something coming up from the TN valley. MLSP plots @ hr294 show the possibility of a wave attacking HP to the north of us:

 

 

24 hour mean precip 18 hours after the above panel supports the signal:

 

 

 

Some sort of overrunning or weak wave into cold hp is probably our best shot. Even with the better h5 look we're seeing, anything strong most likely won't have a hard time running west of us. We probably need to root for something weaker where HP to the north or nw wins the pressure battle and we end up in the battle zone between the 2. 

 

 

 

I agree with your analysis of the gefs setup. We could also score a stronger system if some of the many runs that spit out a solution with good nao blocking for a time pan out. Then we would have a window for a coastal system. Funny thing about the eps last night if you dig into the members the reason our snow mean isn't higher is due to a lot of misses to our southeast. I tend to like that at this point. The euro look with blocking over the top would actually require a more developed system as a weak one would probably be suppressed in that window. Gefs is more relaxed with the blocking so a weak Overunning wave would be a good bet. I'm not putting more analysis into it as we don't know what the details are going to be yet but things look way more favorable that's the key. 

On a side note a lot of bad analysis out of frustration. "This one index means it won't snow". So and so said.  If it snows it will melt anyways. Lol at that one.  We're not Alaska. This is way more complex then any one teleconnections chart can illuminate. If it was that easy forecasts would be better.  Maybe some people should take a few days and relax as we're still a week away from having anything in the short to medium range to track. A few people seem to need a reboot. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

I agree with your analysis of the gefs setup. We could also score a stronger system if some of the many runs that spit out a solution with good nao blocking for a time pan out. Then we would have a window for a coastal system. Funny thing about the eps last night if you dig into the members the reason our snow mean isn't higher is due to a lot of misses to our southeast. I tend to like that at this point. The euro look with blocking over the top would actually require a more developed system as a weak one would probably be suppressed in that window. Gefs is more relaxed with the blocking so a weak Overunning wave would be a good bet. I'm not putting more analysis into it as we don't know what the details are going to be yet but things look way more favorable that's the key. 

On a side note a lot of bad analysis out of frustration. "This one index means it won't snow". So and so said.  If it snows it will melt anyways. Lol at that one.  We're not Alaska. This is way more complex then any one teleconnections chart can illuminate. If it was that easy forecasts would be better.  Maybe some people should take a few days and relax as we're still a week away from having anything in the short to medium range to track. A few people seem to need a reboot. 

Teleconnections moving forward look good to me. Like u said, we aren't going to get every single index to align perfectly. The pattern headed into January is a whole heck of a lot better than where we've been or what had been progged in the LR just a week ago. The fact the NAO goes neutral/negative, even if transient, and the AO follows with a ridge bridge across the pole, that is a look I will take any day of the week.

[Amped]

Looks like a cold pattern coming up. Now if we can just get the trof further east that be great.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Looks like a cold pattern coming up. Now if we can just get the trof further east that be great.

Not too far.  Sounds crazy but we can get a suppressed look that can be equally painful.  Need goldilocks trough.  SER can be a friend or foe

[mitchnick]

Day 10 Euro shows a system similar to the one described by Bob on the gefs, with slp in sw Va and cold air advancing from the Nw.

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Day 10 Euro shows a system similar to the one described by Bob on the gefs, with slp in sw Va and cold air advancing from the Nw.

Never been a fan of those setups...prefer the cold to be in place.  As if I have a choice

[WinterWxLuvr]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Day 10 Euro shows a system similar to the one described by Bob on the gefs, with slp in sw Va and cold air advancing from the Nw.

It was actually better on the 0z run.  I guess the fact that nobody mentioned it means we've learned a lot about day 5+ solutions.

[Bob Chill]

Euro ens looking good from the 5th onward. Great run 

[winterymix]

 I'm reading about some slop situations around January 10.  Makes sense, even in a wretched pattern:  stuff lines up once in a while.  In my view, the MJO outlook is expected to continue as unfavorable; depicted below.  The ENSO forecast supports the current pattern to continue with best cold at the upper Midwest and upper Rockies.  The 500 ensemble winds depict a fire-hose zonal pattern from off of the Pacific.

We've seen this over and over in previous winters that were terrible early.  In the part, the entire phasing has shifted around January 20 into something more favorable for our region.

The smart money always seems to be with the pattern taking longer than we may think to become sweet.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro ens looking good from the 5th onward. Great run 

Interesting.  SE crew weren't happy with them. Those folks work so hard for so little result.  Must be how NE forum feels about us.

[leo1000]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro ens looking good from the 5th onward. Great run 

What's it showing?.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, leo1000 said:

What's it showing?.

Bob is not given to emotion so it must be ok.  He is like a Jedi Knight with regard to weather.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Not really long range, nor much to talk about, but Thursday morning might produce some falling snow if nothing else.

[Bob Chill]

Broad low height anomalies north of us with a nice gradient look where the MA is on the winning side. That's all we need to know for now. Specific threat talk is a ways off. 

[Bob Chill]

Why is the mjo getting so much headline talk when it's a non factor? I don't get it. It's spinning around the circle of nothingness with no amplitude in any phase. It's a non driver right now imo. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Why is the mjo getting so much headline talk when it's a non factor? I don't get it. It's spinning around the circle of nothingness with no amplitude in any phase. It's a non driver right now imo. 

Because it can support the narrative that the "it's never gonna snow" are trying to push.

Next up ... SSW

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Why is the mjo getting so much headline talk when it's a non factor? I don't get it. It's spinning around the circle of nothingness with no amplitude in any phase. It's a non driver right now imo. 

Agree with that.  It's an EPO AO combo that has me interested.  Even the -PNA doesn't bother me as much if we have some blocking.  We are not going backward as of now so that is all we can hold onto.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, leo1000 said:

It looks like it don't last long at all though. That is the problem with the way this winter is shaping up. No sustained patterns. I would rather Spring than getting a good snowstorm then it's gone than another in 10 or 15 days later. I like winters where we get one snowstorm after another. With substained cold. 

But how often does the winter you describe happen around here, though? You can probably count on one hand how often that's happened over the last 50 years, lol We gotta take what we can get!

[BristowWx]

And to add a strong +PNA with deep blocking means cold and dry.  We need a mixed bag of signals.  I like where we are headed but I have thought that before and then ate those words.

[WinterWxLuvr]

New thread folks. 5 day runs now take us to January.  Please post here

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49427-january-mediumlong-range-discussion/

 

[winterymix]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Why is the mjo getting so much headline talk when it's a non factor? I don't get it. It's spinning around the circle of nothingness with no amplitude in any phase. It's a non driver right now imo. 

Bob, you make a good point as noted below:

Quote

Dynamical model forecasts of MJO activity suggest the possible emergence of a signal in the MJO band over the West Pacific late in Week-1 or during Week-2; however, the phase speed of this signature appears at the very fast end of the MJO spectrum and appears tied to the aforementioned Kelvin wave. Filtered CFS guidance suggests an absence of a robust MJO signature during the forecast period, and as such MJO-related impacts are not anticipated throughout the tropics and subtropics. Instead Kelvin wave activity, the low frequency state, and potential tropical cyclones are more likely to shape the present outlook.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php

 

I find the MJO to be a challenging subject to fully understand.  Still, in previous winters I've noticed that when the MJO lines up in phases 7 and 8 we seem to get into a good pattern and it seems that the MJO requires about 40 to 47 days to makes meaningful shifts.

[mattie g]

3 hours ago, leo1000 said:

It looks like it don't last long at all though. That is the problem with the way this winter is shaping up. No sustained patterns. I would rather Spring than getting a good snowstorm then it's gone than another in 10 or 15 days later. I like winters where we get one snowstorm after another. With substained cold.

You're definitely on your own with this line of thinking.

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Why is the mjo getting so much headline talk when it's a non factor? I don't get it. It's spinning around the circle of nothingness with no amplitude in any phase. It's a non driver right now imo. 

I think at some point someone opined that the mjo might help us around.....wait for it...January 17, and now it just keeps bouncing around the weeniesphere.  Your right it's a non factor. 

[VAsnowlvr82]

52 minutes ago, mattie g said:

You're definitely on your own with this line of thinking.

No he's definitely not on his own with that line of thinking. Your such an oddball. There are plenty of people that like sustained cold during winter. Especially with snow on the ground.

[PhineasC]

I definitely don't agree that spring is better than a snowstorm that melts in 15 days. 15 days is a long time to keep a snow pack around these parts. 15 hours is often hard. 

[shoshanaz]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I definitely don't agree that spring is better than a snowstorm that melts in 15 days. 15 days is a long time to keep a snow pack around these parts. 15 hours is often hard. 

I think he meant that the snow came, melted right after and then another snow came 15 days later.   Just want enough for at least one good snowall fight with the grandkids.  :-)

 

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

You're definitely on your own with this line of thinking.

Nope, he isn't. A lot of us love sustained cold with multiple snowstorms, but we also know that it's usually not realistic to expect it where we live.

[Bob Chill]

I'm pretty sure mattie was saying that only being happy with wall to wall cold/snow/snowpack is pretty silly in these parts because that's not even close to how it works around here even in our best years. 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm pretty sure mattie was saying that only being happy with wall to wall cold/snow/snowpack is pretty silly in these parts because that's not even close to how it works around here even in our best years. 

That was my interpretation. Either way, that leo dude needs to find another place to live if thats what he wants out of winter.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm pretty sure mattie was saying that only being happy with wall to wall cold/snow/snowpack is pretty silly in these parts because that's not even close to how it works around here even in our best years. 

It's incredibly silly!

Question: Is there anyone in this forum that doesn't prefer the unicornish fantasy of wall-to-wall cold and with snow following snow following snow?

Didn't think so (OK...there may be one or two). And that's where I was really coming from. Sarcasm - being the lowest form of wit - doesn't come off very well in a weather forum.