dallen7908 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Yes we need to get through the next 10 days. Over that period the Euro has as many days with highs in the 60s at DCA as days with highs below 40 (2 of each). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Heh.. Maybe day 15 will have better luck than a phantom day 10 pattern change. Certainly not worth any more analysis than that. Merry F-ing Xmas!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Ok 18z and 0z both had a big snow. Last op run didn't but a majority of the ensembles do. (Btw I remember times the op had a storm but ensembles didn't support it and you complained about that saying ensembles are more important at that range so which is it?) That's 3 straight great runs by my estimate. Now it's totally legit to point out the range were looking at. Anything 10+ days away is low confidence. No one is predicting a specific storm. But the pattern looks good finally and not just on one run and supported by the ensembles. Maybe it happens maybe not but at least we have maybe when so far it's been hell no. This is, in my opinion, our first strong signal all season, before when we had good looking periods on guidance it was deceiving because they were getting the look over 15 days from 5 systems All low prob and bad tracks. This time the look is from one window with a high percentage of hits for that range. So what do you want? You mad the pattern didn't flip on a dime like some miracle and snow tomorrow? Or are you mad that from 15 days every op and ensemble doesn't show 20"? What do you expect to see as first signs of a better pattern from 15 days away? And if your issue is just how far away it is then why are you wasting your time in the long range thread? We're all frustrated is hasn't snowed but we should stil be logical about this. I take the last few days of long range guidance as a win. Now I'm going to go enjoy watching my son open his Santa presents. Sorry you're the one in a lousy Christmas mood, try getting a life.BTW I'm not frustrated like you appear to be about lack.of snow. Psuhoffman this comment not directed at you, some poster went off his rail without a name appearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 12z appears to wish us a merry Little Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 12z appears to wish us a merry Little Christmas. I asked Santa for a 980 off the Delmarva looks like he is compromising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 21 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said: Sorry you're the one in a lousy Christmas mood, try getting a life.BTW I'm not frustrated like you appear to be about lack.of snow. Psuhoffman this comment not directed at you, some poster went off his rail without a name appearing Ehh some people lol. Our odds of a white Christmas are really pathetic historically. Because of our proximity to the relatively warm Atlantic our winters are skewed late. That's just our reality. Some expectations aren't in line with reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 13 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I asked Santa for a 980 off the Delmarva looks like he is compromising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Tell me what the pretty colors mean Mr. PSU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Tell me what the pretty colors mean Mr. PSU The purple eyeballs will lock the blue nose and mouth over the conus for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Tell me what the pretty colors mean Mr. PSU If it actually looks like that in 2 weeks we will probably get some snow. With luck more then a little. In general reds near Greenland or Alaska into western Canada good. Blues east of Nova Scotia good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The purple eyeballs will lock the blue nose and mouth over the conus for a while I like your explanation better. Merry Christmas my tracking friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Just wanted to wish everyone a Merry Christmas!! I don't post often, but I literally read this board all winter long and fairly frequently the rest of the year and have learned so much from so many of you. psuoffman's posts are often above my intelligence level but I love reading them and trying to figure them out. He's been really fun to read the past week or two. It looks like we may have something to look forward to snow-wise in the New Year. What more can you ask than that?!? Enjoy the day and your long weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The purple eyeballs will lock the blue nose and mouth over the conus for a while You definitely have the Christmas spirit have a merry one bob!@! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Every gfs run seems to push the snowstorm back a day or 2, we're almost into 3rd week of jan, plenty of cold air but cutters keep appearing. Or track too far south of us.edit--euro nothing but rain. Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Every gfs run seems to push the snowstorm back a day or 2, we're almost into 3rd week of jan, plenty of cold air but cutters keep appearing. Or track too far south of us. Am I seeing the same run you are? That threat window looks to be like Jan 5-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 11 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said: Every gfs run seems to push the snowstorm back a day or 2, we're almost into 3rd week of jan, plenty of cold air but cutters keep appearing. Or track too far south of us. Ops don't have a shred of skill for discreet features at these kind of time frames. Ens means aren't pushing anything back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2016 Author Share Posted December 25, 2016 21 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said: Every gfs run seems to push the snowstorm back a day or 2, we're almost into 3rd week of jan, plenty of cold air but cutters keep appearing. Or track too far south of us. 3rd week of January would be the 15th. That's 22 days. Which op model runs that far? Super-Para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 I love checking in here when there is light at the end of the tunnel. January will be rockin (NE MD will be pummeled of course). ;-) Can't ask for anything more at this point than cold and snow opps. Merry Xmas and Happy Hanukkah to my favorite weather team in the DMV. Hope we are tracking next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 I'm keeping the faith. We are going to get plenty of snow in Washington DC this winter. We're going to get demolished by snow next month and in Feb and March. Stock up NOW on Jebman shovels, snowblowers and salt, and about 700 cords of wood because its also going to be a frigid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Mid Atlantic by Jan 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Mid Atlantic by Jan 20. The power of hope...and whiskey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Mid Atlantic by Jan 20. Let me fix that for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Gotta love the wall of 1040 highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2016 Author Share Posted December 25, 2016 If the system the gfs has on the 1st can pull down a little more cold the system on the 2nd might be worth watching. Strong high modeled over southern Quebec at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2016 Author Share Posted December 25, 2016 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gotta love the wall of 1040 highs. I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Gotta love the wall of 1040 highs. 18z lost our fantasy storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 6 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 18z lost our fantasy storm That was the 12z para. 18z isn't out yet. Nothing is going to hold consistently from that range. Honestly today was a half step back on the ensembles, still looks better but not as good as the 0z eps and gefs. Run to run will shift and we will go crazy worrying about details that far out. We should get threats mid month if the pattern is anything like what's being hinted at. Just have to wait and see. ETA:. The fantasy system is still there it's just suppressed. After the cold front on the 3rd we get missed twice to the south by two waves actually. That's not a bad thing at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 The next week to ten days are going to be ugly if you want snow... I am watching the Jan 5 to Jan 10 period for our first real shot at snow accumulations for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 39 minutes ago, yoda said: The next week to ten days are going to be ugly if you want snow... I am watching the Jan 5 to Jan 10 period for our first real shot at snow accumulations for the area In the 5-10 day period we are in transition. If you loop the h5 you can see how the whole pattern is repeating but each cycle the pv becomes beat down and displaced more and the trough position sets up east of its previous location. It wouldn't surprise me if even the 10-15 period ends up not satisfying us with snow. This often takes longer then we like. Last year we got a great pattern but people were discouraged when the first few threats fell apart before we got the huge payoff right before the whole pattern broke down. I'm not sold we get a great pattern yet, it's way out, and guidance is still unsure about how much nao help we get. The AK ridging looks good. Nao will determine if the look is ok or good but either is preferable to the garbage pattern now. Some of the analogs suggest hope. 54 52 and 57 had a good snowy period in January. 2004 we got a nice CAD event towards the end of a cold period. 2005 wasn't great but it did snow. January 2000 popped up again today. Some of the others the se ridge was never overcome and they sucked so the potential for boom and bust is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 9 hours ago, psuhoffman said: In the 5-10 day period we are in transition. If you loop the h5 you can see how the whole pattern is repeating but each cycle the pv becomes beat down and displaced more and the trough position sets up east of its previous location. It wouldn't surprise me if even the 10-15 period ends up not satisfying us with snow. This often takes longer then we like. Last year we got a great pattern but people were discouraged when the first few threats fell apart before we got the huge payoff right before the whole pattern broke down. I'm not sold we get a great pattern yet, it's way out, and guidance is still unsure about how much nao help we get. The AK ridging looks good. Nao will determine if the look is ok or good but either is preferable to the garbage pattern now. Some of the analogs suggest hope. 54 52 and 57 had a good snowy period in January. 2004 we got a nice CAD event towards the end of a cold period. 2005 wasn't great but it did snow. January 2000 popped up again today. Some of the others the se ridge was never overcome and they sucked so the potential for boom and bust is there. Doesn't 10 to15 days put us at beginning of phase 7 MJO, or about Jan 17th??? I wouldn't be a bit surprised if your correct in your assessments.Models should start showing snowy solution around the 10 day period. Just mho based on past experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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