December Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

16 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

Man talk about being warm Jan 2nd looks to be into 50's for high- just a guess-with some rain, according to GFS, all I can say is wow, good old se Ridge really exerting itself and low pressure going up spine of applachians.

Yuck. Out in fantasy land though so we can still hope it's wrong.  

[frd]

 

 

I need to move to the NW ASAP 

Once again this continues ( based on the LR GFS ensembles ) the highly amplified pattern of the La Nina , look at the SE rigde, major negative departures in the NW and way positive in the SE 

No real changes to speak of. 

 

 

 

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Anybody still clinging to that system on New Years?

Pretty sure op runs beyond 5 days are risky business. FWIW, I thought the last ens runs didn't get worse.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

LC has also stated repeatedly no significant measurable snow DCA-PHL corridor thru the final few days of January. He looks, unfortunately, spot-on for the foreseeable future anyway.

 

Hopefully he is wrong because when you look at the pattern analogs January was the better month then February and differentiated the "decent" years from the flag out awful dud ones. A few we eked out a late storn like 2005 and 99 but in the majority we got most of our snow in January. So if we punt Jan we might be in trouble. 

[SnowGoose69]

31 minutes ago, frd said:

Depsite this LaNina being weak , relatively , there is a classic La Nina temp profile in the US., with the Southeast scoring huge warmth , with record warmth in Florida, meanwhile Montana has huge negative departures. 

Maybe we need the LaNina to weaken and according to some models that happens next month , not sure about lag time and other variables but maybe Feb is prime time here.

Whatever way you slice it,  an above snowfall season is going to be hard to come by here. ( Echoing Bob's thoughts from a while ago ) A blockbuster snowstorm in a non El Nino year is doubtful in my opinion.

However, if we can score an intense - EPO / CPF maybe we have a chance of an all snow, very cold temp storm with snow cover for days afterwards. Maybe this occurs in the favorable window of time which we might get at some point later in Jan, Feb, or even early March.  

 

 

I'm not sure the SE ridge is a product of the La Niña as much as it is the western Atlantic warm SSTs which have been there now for seemingly 4-5 years.  We've seen plenty of the SE or western Atlantic ridge the last few years even when we haven't had a La Niña.  This is also a very poor excuse for a La Niña as well as far as most of the usual signals you look for in the central and eastern tropical pacific. 

[mdsnowlover]

20 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

I need to move to the NW ASAP 

Once again this continues ( based on the LR GFS ensembles ) the highly amplified pattern of the La Nina , look at the SE rigde, major negative departures in the NW and way positive in the SE 

No real changes to speak of. 

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like we're counting on MJO phase 7 to effect the atmosphere, and if it doesn't change the overall pattern , think we're basically screwed this winter. Funny JB in his winter forecast never mentioned anything about the se Ridge bring so predominate, but really doesn't matter anymore.Larry cosgrove , met, does specifically say , in his winter forecast, that seems Ridge will be there all winter..

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

Looks like we're counting on MJO phase 7 to effect the atmosphere, and if it doesn't change the overall pattern , think we're basically screwed this winter. Funny JB in his winter forecast never mentioned anything about the se Ridge bring so predominate, but really doesn't matter anymore.Larry cosgrove , met, does specifically say , in his winter forecast, that seems Ridge will be there all winter..

A wise man once said you have to want what you've got.  I may not have snow but I've got a nice bottle of Bookers whiskey and I want it right now.

[mdsnowlover]

12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

A wise man once said you have to want what you've got.  I may not have snow but I've got a nice bottle of Bookers whiskey and I want it right now.

Oh heck good one and enjoy, have one for me too. Happy holidays

[Thanatos_I_Am]

A wise man once said you have to want what you've got.  I may not have snow but I've got a nice bottle of Bookers whiskey and I want it right now.

Haha. Lagavulin for myself!

[frd]

21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm not sure the SE ridge is a product of the La Niña as much as it is the western Atlantic warm SSTs which have been there now for seemingly 4-5 years.  We've seen plenty of the SE or western Atlantic ridge the last few years even when we haven't had a La Niña.  This is also a very poor excuse for a La Niña as well as far as most of the usual signals you look for in the central and eastern tropical pacific. 

It interesting that a not so powerful La Nina,  is producing such a classical La Nina temp composite.

Temps off the Mid Atlantic Coast are not that cold , recording 48 degrees F a ways off of Delaware.  I recall last winter when the ocean temps never did reallly drop that much, and due to that we were enjoying very nice surfing conditions , ( ocen temp-wise ) by mid June which is very early. And by late July almost 78 to 80 degrees F.

Also,  last year was the summer that a buoy off of Atlanitc City, NJ recorded a record breaking 83 F ocean temp.      

[EastonSN+]

29 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm not sure the SE ridge is a product of the La Niña as much as it is the western Atlantic warm SSTs which have been there now for seemingly 4-5 years.  We've seen plenty of the SE or western Atlantic ridge the last few years even when we haven't had a La Niña.  This is also a very poor excuse for a La Niña as well as far as most of the usual signals you look for in the central and eastern tropical pacific. 

Looks ugly right now for the east coast on operational models. Hopefully we can score a couple moderate snow hits like last weekend. SE ridge killing us.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

41 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Anybody still clinging to that system on New Years?

Pretty sure op runs beyond 5 days are risky business. FWIW, I thought the last ens runs didn't get worse.

I'll be in Canaan valley for New Years so I am still hopeful.  It's looking like dec 29/30 could be a potent upslope event there on the gfs. 

[87storms]

2 hours ago, mdsnowlover said:

How is wearing shorts in december  so bad, I just saw a man in giant food wearing shorts, think it pretty nice, hell if you cant get snow let it be comfortable outside.for us retired group nothing like 50 degrees and sunny on xmas day.sorry if I misinterpret your post

I semi agree.  I don't like nuisance cold.  If it's gonna snow or if it's an intriguing pattern where we get to skate on rivers that can be fun, but constant 30s/40s and nothing really to show for it does little for me.  I don't need 60s but I do find 50 to be hella more comfortable than 30 or even 40.

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Whatever makes your holiday merry.  We get to wear shorts 9 months out of the year.  I would like to be chilly on Xmas.  But maybe I am alone on this notion.  

+1

[psuhoffman]

Gefs isn't bad day 10-15. Several nice hits. They are still split with some showing a pretty good look for the mid atl and some with too much ridging. It's definitely trending towards a colder look as was the eps the last few runs. If you look at gefs note the snow mean is 3-4" in our area but didn't really increase much to our north until you get to New England. The runs that suppress the ridging are a good look for us. Even have misses to our south. We're the max target zone for the 10 or so in that camp. The other half the ridging pushes the snow well northwest of us. If the camp that shows a colder look and suppressed ridge are on to something we could get some better looks soon. If the southeast ridge camp is right we might need to wait for better blocking to develop. 

[psuhoffman]

We could do worse then this. Not perfect but we can work with this. Very minor tweaks and this becomes a good look. 

[WxUSAF]

Wow that 240hr euro map is a small tweak or two away from big dog woofing.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Wow that 240hr euro map is a small tweak or two away from big dog woofing.

I'll say. That is one juicy run.

[frd]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We could do worse then this. Not perfect but we can work with this. Very minor tweaks and this becomes a good look. 

 

It would be nice if the EPS continued the trend of the OP later today.

And yeah, the look to block is tasty.  

[Westendsnowguy]

 

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Wow that 240hr euro map is a small tweak or two away from big dog woofing.

[frd]

4 minutes ago, Westendsnowguy said:

 

 

So I think you are saying the Euro 6 to 10 day Operational forecast hase lost skill , and the GFS is doing better ?

Bottom line when the EPS backs the op at this range it might be time to Woof 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Westendsnowguy said:

 

Point taken but no one is running out to get bread and milk. It's just nice to get runs like that and be back in the game again. That's all. 

[Westendsnowguy]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Point taken but no one is running out to get bread and milk. It's just nice to get runs like that and be back in the game again. That's all. 

Totally agree, we are making baby steps 

[frd]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Point taken but no one is running out to get bread and milk. It's just nice to get runs like that and be back in the game again. That's all. 

Wonder the effect of the Euro day 6 S/W that hammers the upper NNE with alot of snow on the NAO region.  What effect that has on the block overll.

That has been a rather consistent feature on the Euro.  

[poolz1]

The SE ridge is relentless but I do agree it is  most likely a product of trough/ridge rotating through...with ridging working out more times than not.  With that said, imho, the retro look to the trough out west is on the cusp of putting this pattern on steroids.  If a piece of that western trough can break off and continue its retrograde off the west coast...I would think that would pop a ridge on the west coast and all of the sudden its a very nice look. Wishful/positive thinking on xmas eve...lol

Merry Christmas/happy holidays to all....

[Heisy]

The OP EURO Day 10 is the best looking pattern we've seen on a model in a while

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

The OP EURO Day 10 is the best looking pattern we've seen on a model in a while

Euro control has a 6-12" snowstorm day 11-12 from a similar setup. Ensemble support is there for the general look but weak.  The look still seems "undecided" towards day 15. 

[Sparky]

I'm drinking some wine.  I don't give a f*ck what it does.

[psuhoffman]

Maybe I'm missing something. Scanning the board today so many are saying "in this Niña pattern". But we're not in a Niña. 1+2 is running +.5. 3.4 is running -.5. The others about -.3. They aren't projected to drop further and might get to 0 soon. Seems pretty much an enso neutral winter to me. I'm not saying that to imply anything about snow. Plenty of other things can screw us over and some of our worst winters were neutral. Just don't consider this a Niña and not sure why so many are blaming our woes on that?  Is it because the temp profile looks ninaish?

[Bob Chill]

Psu, explaining nina focus is pretty simple. First, we almost got there before the weakening late this fall. Second, a se ridge + dominent northern stream and nw storm track fits the basic mold. 

How much of this is directly attributed to equatorial ssta's is debatable but the pattern resembling a fairly typical nina is what it is. Even if everyone just agrees that it's a straight up neutral winter it doesn't change the fact that we are stuck in a crappy pattern for snow.