December Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Still time to get that high off the southeast coast where it belongs. 

LOL, no doubt.

Meanwhile the latest gfs gives a much more realistic view of the New Years system..a mainly dry, windy cold front.

[BristowWx]

10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL, no doubt.

Meanwhile the latest gfs gives a much more realistic view of the New Years system..a mainly dry, windy cold front.

Can't agree with that..that looks better for NYE..just my opinion...maybe the SER could help on this one...this is just my 2 cents

[leo1000]

The longer the snowstorms hold off the worser it will be. I remember that happened last winter here. We had so much snow on the ground at one time. Without the usual thaw and mild up's in between.

[mdsnowlover]

5 minutes ago, leo1000 said:

The longer the snowstorms hold off the worser it will be. I remember that happened last winter here. We had so much snow on the ground at one time. Without the usual thaw and mild up's in between.

The longer the drought is, the more the possibility of being skunked, or of getting ice instead.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Someone who knows can answer, but can that (sorta) low pressure system off the NC Banks swing up the coast? What's preventing that?

[Ralph Wiggum]

Someone who knows can answer, but can that (sorta) low pressure system off the NC Banks swing up the coast? What's preventing that?

Kicker on it's heels?

Neutral trof?

[Ralph Wiggum]

Too far out to really be discussing in great detail but verbatim, if that energy on the Canadian Border near ND could dive and interact with the energy in the Southern Jet there would be a better shot at seeing that Southern low develop and come North. Bad timing and no interaction/phasing prevents that from happening on this model thus trof remains neutral too long:

[Wonderdog]

30 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Too far out to really be discussing in great detail but verbatim, if that energy on the Canadian Border near ND could dive and interact with the energy in the Southern Jet there would be a better shot at seeing that Southern low develop and come North. Bad timing and no interaction/phasing prevents that from happening on this model thus trof remains neutral too long:

 

 

 

That being said,  the look of the New Years day "event" on the op run has looked better for 3 consecutive runs.

[Ralph Wiggum]

29 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

That being said,  the look of the New Years day "event" on the op run has looked better for 3 consecutive runs.

Agreed. 

[87storms]

42 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Agreed. 

Doesn't look like a common setup but I remember we had a low form in the gulf along a stalled out front in 94.  Was supposed to deliver snow but turned into an epic sleet storm.  

[yoda]

I actually like the LR 00z GFS tonight... chances are there and decent HP around in Quebec 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

06z has a lot of storms that's for sure. All rain this time.

[mdsnowlover]

1 hour ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

06z has a lot of storms that's for sure. All rain this time.

Actually according to 6z gfs Jan 6th we do get some snow, low off se coast and according to 6z gfs Para we do get a rain to snow thereabouts, but this is in fantasy land, unfortunately, but still, finally showing snow.Nice Christmas present.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

How does the Euro look for New Years Day?  From the free maps I see a low in the Lakes but it looks like 850's in our area are cold at 192 hours.  

[mdsnowlover]

17 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

How does the Euro look for New Years Day?  From the free maps I see a low in the Lakes but it looks like 850's in our area are cold at 192 hours.  

Clear skies

[showmethesnow]

Nice to see the models are at least shifting from a pattern that would have required a miracle to get better then a trace of snow to one that at least offers some hope. But until we can get the rid of the trough in the west and the southeast ridging my enthusiasm for anything meaningful is luke warm at best. And the persistent of these feature so far this winter leads me to believe that we will probably be fighting them all winter. Give us a strong west based -NAO and that would do wonders for our snow chances as it would knock down the SE ridge and build ridging in the west. 

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

How does the Euro look for New Years Day?  From the free maps I see a low in the Lakes but it looks like 850's in our area are cold at 192 hours.  

Looks like some showers moving through around hr 210 with temps in the 40s ahead of a strong cold front. Maybe some flurries as that moves through? Looks quite cold for the 2nd. Verbatim we start off the new year cold and dry, one half of our specialty.

[dallen7908]

Wrt EURO on New Years Day (which of course is well beyond the useful point for an operational model), 850 temperatures well below freezing but surface temperatures near 40 by the time the light rain arrives (DCA) 

Also, next Thursday's event still exists although it is now cold rain changing to cool rain (DCA) with 850 temperatures rising to mid-40s by event end

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Nice to see the models are at least shifting from a pattern that would have required a miracle to get better then a trace of snow to one that at least offers some hope. But until we can get the rid of the trough in the west and the southeast ridging my enthusiasm for anything meaningful is luke warm at best. And the persistent of these feature so far this winter leads me to believe that we will probably be fighting them all winter. Give us a strong west based -NAO and that would do wonders for our snow chances as it would knock down the SE ridge and build ridging in the west. 

The feature that continues to look key for incrementally moving us into a more favorable pattern is the ridging near AK. It needs to shift eastward. Taking a quick look at the 0z runs, this looks better on the EPS than the GEFS down the line. GEFS seems to want to retrograde it back towards the Aleutians, with a GOA trough towards the end of the run. No indication of a meaningful/sustained -NAO showing up. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

FWIW 0z EPS snowfall mean for DC went up. (Now at 1.5") With most of that coming after D10.

[psuhoffman]

There is a fight going on within the guidance past day 10. It's amazing given the pretty good look over Greenland and Alaska were still fighting the se ridge as much as we are in the day 10-15 but that shows how much of a struggle that feature is going to be for us this season. Looking into the details shows a split within ensembles. Both gefs and eps spike snow up to around 2", not a big signal but improved, in the 10-15 day. But look at the individual members and you see the ones that really have a great look with the nao and AO beat down the ridge enough that we get some decent snows on many of those members. The half or so that are only so so with the features in Greenland and Alaska have a raging se ridge that skews the mean. It's undecided. But even with a great look to our north were still fighting that ridge.  The ridging in the atl side is still a bit east of ideal. Hopefully at some point we get a period it sets up as a west based block. 

The analogs paint the picture for our expectations. The day 8&11 ensembles spit out 62,57,54,52,2004,2005,91,93,2002,68,85,2009 in no particular order. No great years among the bunch. A mix of near average and flat out awful. The best total was 68 but 60% of the snow fell in November and dec so toss that. 54 and 57 were respectable. You can go through the list but some of the years the cold was able to push the se ridge down enough to eek out an acceptable snow period. Some of those the se ridge dominated all year and they sucked.  I think the blocking on the Atlantic side will determine. It's clear from dec and the look going forward that the blocking on the Alaska side isn't enough. If we can get a period where the atl really cooperates and we get a legit west based -nao I think we will do ok. Absent that we might struggle much of the year. Our only shot without it would be times when the pacific really takes over in our favor and maybe we get a wave system to stay south of us. We have gone to that well a lot lately and it worked but historically that's living dangerously. 

[Bob Chill]

42 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

FWIW 0z EPS snowfall mean for DC went up. (Now at 1.5") With most of that coming after D10.

Eps has been trending colder with more potential beyond the 1st for 3+ runs in a row. It's a good sign. Even though the H5 mean has its obvious flaws, we are in prime time climo so the baroclinic zone can still be favorable even without perfect height patterns. 

Everything has the feel of a series of significant cold fronts with a big cold load pattern in the western half of the conus. Hopefully we can start getting some good looks closer in time so we can start tracking something. I'm pretty bored with weather right now but the holidays are pretty fun. Lots of new Xbox games coming for me....um....I mean my son. Lol

 

 

[mdsnowlover]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is a fight going on within the guidance past day 10. It's amazing given the pretty good look over Greenland and Alaska were still fighting the se ridge as much as we are in the day 10-15 but that shows how much of a struggle that feature is going to be for us this season. Looking into the details shows a split within ensembles. Both gefs and eps spike snow up to around 2", not a big signal but improved, in the 10-15 day. But look at the individual members and you see the ones that really have a great look with the nao and AO beat down the ridge enough that we get some decent snows on many of those members. The half or so that are only so so with the features in Greenland and Alaska have a raging se ridge that skews the mean. It's undecided. But even with a great look to our north were still fighting that ridge.  The ridging in the atl side is still a bit east of ideal. Hopefully at some point we get a period it sets up as a west based block. 

The analogs paint the picture for our expectations. The day 8&11 ensembles spit out 62,57,54,52,2004,2005,91,93,2002,68,85,2009 in no particular order. No great years among the bunch. A mix of near average and flat out awful. The best total was 68 but 60% of the snow fell in November and dec so toss that. 54 and 57 were respectable. You can go through the list but some of the years the cold was able to push the se ridge down enough to eek out an acceptable snow period. Some of those the se ridge dominated all year and they sucked.  I think the blocking on the Atlantic side will determine. It's clear from dec and the look going forward that the blocking on the Alaska side isn't enough. If we can get a period where the atl really cooperates and we get a legit west based -nao I think we will do ok. Absent that we might struggle much of the year. Our only shot without it would be times when the pacific really takes over in our favor and maybe we get a wave system to stay south of us. We have gone to that well a lot lately and it worked but historically that's living dangerously. 

According to Larry cosgrove were stuck with se Ridge for entire winter, but his lists of storm tracks include one up the eastern seaboard starting in western gulf.

[Ralph Wiggum]

According to Larry cosgrove were stuck with se Ridge for entire winter, but his lists of storm tracks include one up the eastern seaboard starting in western gulf.

LC has also stated repeatedly no significant measurable snow DCA-PHL corridor thru the final few days of January. He looks, unfortunately, spot-on for the foreseeable future anyway.

[BristowWx]

25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Eps has been trending colder with more potential beyond the 1st for 3+ runs in a row. It's a good sign. Even though the H5 mean has its obvious flaws, we are in prime time climo so the baroclinic zone can still be favorable even without perfect height patterns. 

Everything has the feel of a series of significant cold fronts with a big cold load pattern in the western half of the conus. Hopefully we can start getting some good looks closer in time so we can start tracking something. I'm pretty bored with weather right now but the holidays are pretty fun. Lots of new Xbox games coming for me....um....I mean my son. Lol

 

 

And from my perspective we dodged a major bullet for tomorrow as it will at least be seasonal.  Could have been much worse if you look ar 2m temps in NC and SC.  They will be wearing shorts tomorrow. A small victory for sure.  

[mdsnowlover]

20 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

And from my perspective we dodged a major bullet for tomorrow as it will at least be seasonal.  Could have been much worse if you look ar 2m temps in NC and SC.  They will be wearing shorts tomorrow. A small victory for sure.  

How is wearing shorts in december  so bad, I just saw a man in giant food wearing shorts, think it pretty nice, hell if you cant get snow let it be comfortable outside.for us retired group nothing like 50 degrees and sunny on xmas day.sorry if I misinterpret your post

[BristowWx]

12 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

How is wearing shorts in december  so bad, I just saw a man in giant food wearing shorts, think it pretty nice, hell if you cant get snow let it be comfortable outside.for us retired group nothing like 50 degrees and sunny on xmas day.sorry if I misinterpret your post

Whatever makes your holiday merry.  We get to wear shorts 9 months out of the year.  I would like to be chilly on Xmas.  But maybe I am alone on this notion.  

[mdsnowlover]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Whatever makes your holiday merry.  We get to wear shorts 9 months out of the year.  I would like to be chilly on Xmas.  But maybe I am alone on this notion.  

Old saying in life"if you can't get what you want, want what you can get"  lol!! Enjoy the holidays, life too short not to!!

[mdsnowlover]

Man talk about being warm Jan 2nd looks to be into 50's for high- just a guess-with some rain, according to GFS, all I can say is wow, good old se Ridge really exerting itself and low pressure going up spine of applachians.

[frd]

Depsite this LaNina being weak , relatively , there is a classic La Nina temp profile in the US., with the Southeast scoring huge warmth , with record warmth in Florida, meanwhile Montana has huge negative departures. 

Maybe we need the LaNina to weaken and according to some models that happens next month , not sure about lag time and other variables but maybe Feb is prime time here.

Whatever way you slice it,  an above snowfall season is going to be hard to come by here. ( Echoing Bob's thoughts from a while ago ) A blockbuster snowstorm in a non El Nino year is doubtful in my opinion.

However, if we can score an intense - EPO / CPF maybe we have a chance of an all snow, very cold temp storm with snow cover for days afterwards. Maybe this occurs in the favorable window of time which we might get at some point later in Jan, Feb, or even early March.