December Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[psuhoffman]

53 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

That hardly happens in the mid atlantic, no matter how hard one wishes for it. But I'm sensing a negative attitude with the way things look in the mid to long range today, compared to the last two days. What has actually changed in the guidance today as opposed to the last two days?

I don't think much changed, it's just there was probably some excitement just to see marginal positive changes but now another day for that to wear off and still no threats to track in the next 2 weeks and people are getting impatient. If you asked me if I think we get snow in the next 2 weeks if bet no. But if you asked me our prospects to eek out an above 10" year in the cities and get to around 20 in our nw zones this winter as a whole I feel a lot better about that now then a week ago. I think where we look to be in 2 weeks is a lot closer to evolving into a better pattern then we were looking at. The pacific is ok but we need some help on the Atlantic side. I think the AK ridge is a base state status quo this year. So if we can get a period of half decent Atlantic pattern at some point this year we should be ok. If the status quo was a dreadful PAC and Atlantic as looked possible a few days ago that would be trouble. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, usedtobe said:

The euro weeklies suggest not much change for the better through January.  I guess the good thing is now models even ens means aren't much good that far out so the pattern could be way different than forecast. 

They were an awful run. But they were also based off a run during a time when things were change and the eps had just totally missed the events taking place day 7-10. The look suggests spread and I'm hopeful they simply have no clue. Some stuff looks better. Mjo might help later in Jan. My feeling is get the pacific into a manageable condition then wait and hope we at least get a window the Atlantic cooperates or one the PAC dominates enough on its own ala 2014 and late 2015. 

[Wonderdog]

Things are looking somewhat interesting on New Years on the 12z.

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah, I think a lot of it is perception.  Not long ago it was a wall-to-wall lousy look, even some (semi jesting) calls for shorts on Christmas.  Now, there's at least some kind of hope heading into the New Year.  But as you say, that doesn't necessarily mean we're getting a snowstorm and it's not as if the advertised pattern is ideal.  Others have expounded on this, but even any evolving positive change won't be "felt" right away.  Still, far better than it looked before.

Your not misreading it but we can hope it's getting that signal from a front half of cutters and warm then a back half of a better pattern. That would give the same look. We don't need 4 weeks we just need one week and get a hit. At this point it's managing expectations. It's hoghly unlikely we're getting a very good winter this year. Forget the 87,96,03,10,14 type years. That's just not happening this year. So we're left fighting for a respectable season like 90% of our winters. There is no reason yet to give up on getting a reasonable snow total and maybe a solid event or two. We just need a couple 1-2 week Windows then not get unlucky.  As long as our expectations aren't out of whack things are still ok. My average up here might be around 38" but at this point I would be very satisfied with a couple solid 4-8" snows and a 20 winter.  Just want a few days to play in the snow with my toddler y who already keeps  asking when it's gonna snow and watching frosty over and over. That's probably a 10-15" winter in DC and Balt and 13-20 in the nw burbs. Typical. I just want to avoid that 1/10 total dud year like 2002. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, Wonderdog said:

Things are looking somewhat interesting on New Years on the 12z.

Cold chasing moisture with a positive tilt low.  But it's something I suppose

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

Things are looking somewhat interesting on New Years on the 12z.

It's a near miss verbatim, but really close to a nice event. That's definitely the window to watch for any chance in the next two weeks.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

It's a near miss verbatim, but really close to a nice event. That's definitely the window to watch for any chance in the next two weeks.

I agree but it's a bad system to track because those caboose wave type setups almost always just pop up inside 72 hours. Maybe it's closer to 100 now with model improvements but definitely not something we're going to see consistently show up on long range. Just hints of the opportunity as you point out. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Your not misreading it but we can hope it's getting that signal from a front half of cutters and warm then a back half of a better pattern. That would give the same look. We don't need 4 weeks we just need one week and get a hit. At this point it's managing expectations. It's hoghly unlikely we're getting a very good winter this year. Forget the 87,96,03,10,14 type years. That's just not happening this year. So we're left fighting for a respectable season like 90% of our winters. There is no reason yet to give up on getting a reasonable snow total and maybe a solid event or two. We just need a couple 1-2 week Windows then not get unlucky.  As long as our expectations aren't out of whack things are still ok. My average up here might be around 38" but at this point I would be very satisfied with a couple solid 4-8" snows and a 20-25" winter. That's probably a 10-15" winter in DC and Balt and 13-20 in the nw burbs. Typical. I just to avoid that 1/10 total dud year like 2002. 

Oh, I agree, and I don't think most in here (who are reasonable or realistic!) ever expected this year to be very good.  On the flip-side, I don't think most are looking at something as awful as 2001-02 or 2011-12 (it hurts my fingers to type in those two winters!).  A couple of solid events like you say, through our peak climo period, would be great at this point.

[Wonderdog]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It's a near miss verbatim, but really close to a nice event. That's definitely the window to watch for any chance in the next two weeks.

Appears to be a fairly moderate change from the 0z run. May be something to watch anyway.

[Heisy]

Just 4 $h6ts & giggles, but the LR 12z GFS LR pattern is decent. We would need to time a shortwave coming out of the southwest with a shortwave rounding the PV/ULL in SE Canada. For example, check out the 500mb pattern on the 12z GFS @ 240 hours. Decent cold shot as the PV has setup shop in SE Canada. Over the next few days energy circles the PV as it heads N. If we could hypothetically time some energy that could cut underneath the HP we'd have a shot at something. If any of that made any sense. 

[Bob Chill]

I think the NYE setup sucks on the GFS. 1030HP well east off the coast and strong LP north of the lakes. Yea, there's a southern wave too but leading in would be ripping southerly surface and ML winds. If the front drapes more e-w instead of n-s then the northern low could race out in front. All in all it fits the mold for the winter so far though. NW track/rain/cold. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Oh, I agree, and I don't think most in here (who are reasonable or realistic!) ever expected this year to be very good.  On the flip-side, I don't think most are looking at something as awful as 2001-02 or 2011-12 (it hurts my fingers to type in those two winters!).  A couple of solid events like you say, through our peak climo period, would be great at this point.

Agreed. I just think chaos plays a big part. Take out the 10% of winters that had a good pattern for a predominant part and the rest we need luck. Yea some are marginally better then others but to me the biggest difference between 2002 and a ton of other years we remember as typical was bad bad luck. That southern storm is 100 miles north and that storm early January that barely missed us to the NW both hit and we remember it as a decent year. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Agreed. I just think chaos plays a big part. Take out the 10% of winters that had a good pattern for a predominant part and the rest we need luck. Yea some are marginally better then others but to me the biggest difference between 2002 and a ton of other years we remember as typical was bad bad luck. That southern storm is 100 miles north and that storm early January that barely missed us to the NW both hit and we remember it as a decent year. 

01/02 was the winter JB claimed he got the upper level pattern right but the forecast on the surface wrong.

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think the NYE setup sucks on the GFS. 1030HP well east off the coast and strong LP north of the lakes. Yea, there's a southern wave too but leading in would be ripping southerly surface and ML winds. If the front drapes more e-w instead of n-s then the northern low could race out in front. All in all it fits the mold though for the winter so far though. NW track/rain/cold. 

 It's basically a wave on a cold front. Those require perfect timing and placement. Perhaps we could get that first low to scoot through quicker.

Chances are it ends up nothing like it's being shown. Leaves open both good and bad possibilities, lol.

[psuhoffman]

I guess the proof things are improving is just the fact there are posts in here at all specifically about "threats" and Windows. If the pattern were in now and had locked in long term like looked possible this thread would be crickets right now other then the occasional attempt at humor to make each other feel better. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

01/02 was the winter JB claimed he got the upper level pattern right but the forecast on the surface wrong.

lol yea that guy. I always admit when I bust a forecast. And it happens a lot to everyone even the best. And there is some legitimacy to that specific excuse that year but when you use that, or other excuses, again and again to spin instead of just forecasting it gets old. 

[WxUSAF]

 Bob is right about the New Year's eve event as shown on the GFS. We need the northern stream low to move through faster or the southern stream a low to be slower and create more separation. But at least having a southern stream low is a big improvement over where we've been.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

01/02 was the winter JB claimed he got the upper level pattern right but the forecast on the surface wrong.

Haha...yeah, I remember that!  I also remember reading some of his posts constantly calling for "cross polar flow" and "vodka-cold shots!" which never came about!

 

19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

 It's basically a wave on a cold front. Those require perfect timing and placement. Perhaps we could get that first low to scoot through quicker.

Chances are it ends up nothing like it's being shown. Leaves open both good and bad possibilities, lol.

Right, indeed.  One of the best examples of perfect timing of a wave on a front was the March 2015 event.  I think the GFS was hinting/advertising that to occur at the time several days out even.  It had a "blip" of decent precipitation behind the front, which eventually evolved into that storm as it got closer.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 Bob is right about the New Year's eve event as shown on the GFS. We need the northern stream low to move through faster or the southern stream a low to be slower and create more separation. But at least having a southern stream low is a big improvement over where we've been.

It's nice to see a low tracking below us.  It looks like it would be a nice hit for the ski areas in WV.   Did the Euro have anything resembling this?

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 Bob is right about the New Year's eve event as shown on the GFS. We need the northern stream low to move through faster or the southern stream a low to be slower and create more separation. But at least having a southern stream low is a big improvement over where we've been.

It's a low % threat but at least we have a threat at all. Most of the guidance now has a half decent "workable" look day 8-12 then breaks everything down back to an eastern ridge by day 15. While discouraging I'm also hopeful because the the look day 15 (below) feels way more transient to me then the utter crap we were facing. Yes eastern ridge and pos nao but the pv is greatly weakened this time from the day 8-12 assault and there is blocking near Alaska. My gut is perhaps the next round in this cycle after that (maybe timed with the mjo) could get us an even better look.  The pv doesn't look to recover to Godzilla status like now. I feel like we're inching closer to where we need to be its just a winding road not linear. 

[Bob Chill]

27 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

It's nice to see a low tracking below us.  It looks like it would be a nice hit for the ski areas in WV.   Did the Euro have anything resembling this?

0z last night didn't have anything like it but the previous 2-3 runs did. Nothing noteworthy or amounting to anything though. 

[mdsnowlover]

Interesting weather forecast from Larry cosgrove on Justin burkes website

[MN Transplant]

Euro OP seems to have a bit of front-end slop next Wednesday.

[psuhoffman]

Wxbell fixed snow maps. Around 144 places nw of 95 get enough qpf for 2-3" with surface and 850 below 0. But maps show only a coating far nw. Warm later isn't shocking with low in lakes but old snow weenie map would show that as snow. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Euro OP seems to have a bit of front-end slop next Wednesday.

It's slop to dry slot. We lose surface sometime after 144 but it looks like precip is probably over by then and reorganizing around the low forming in time up slam New England. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wxbell fixed snow maps. Around 144 places nw of 95 get enough qpf for 2-3" with surface and 850 below 0. But maps show only a coating far nw. Warm later isn't shocking with low in lakes but old snow weenie map would show that as snow. 

I'm skeptical of that.  Silly to debate it at such range given that the gfs has nothing of the sort in that time frame, but that setup would produce at least some snow regardless of weatherbell snow maps.

BTW, the euro did move that low from north of Chicago at 0z to central Indiana this time.  Also, unlike the last go around, this system has the strongest high sitting over New Hampshire instead of in the Atlantic east of about Ocean City.

[Bob Chill]

Euro ens looking better d9+ but practically zero support for frozen for the d6-7 thing the op spit out. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro ens looking better d9+ but practically zero support for frozen for the d6-7 thing the op spit out. 

Yea. They do have a tiny hint of a snow signal day 10-12 ish. Too far out to over think it. Control is a good reminder how we need some luck. Produces a beautiful Greenland block. Closed off and all. Raging AK ridge. Links the two up and keeps them in place say 9-15 yet no snow anywhere in the east. Manages to ride two system up along the Canada border because even with all that it still manages ridging underneath with some absolutely freakishly tight baroclinic boundary. Looks kinda crazy but from looking at Canada you would say how in the heck is the conus that warm. 

[psuhoffman]

56 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'm skeptical of that.  Silly to debate it at such range given that the gfs has nothing of the sort in that time frame, but that setup would produce at least some snow regardless of weatherbell snow maps.

BTW, the euro did move that low from north of Chicago at 0z to central Indiana this time.  Also, unlike the last go around, this system has the strongest high sitting over New Hampshire instead of in the Atlantic east of about Ocean City.

Still time to get that high off the southeast coast where it belongs. 

[Bob Chill]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea. They do have a tiny hint of a snow signal day 10-12 ish. Too far out to over think it. Control is a good reminder how we need some luck. Produces a beautiful Greenland block. Closed off and all. Raging AK ridge. Links the two up and keeps them in place say 9-15 yet no snow anywhere in the east. Manages to ride two system up along the Canada border because even with all that it still manages ridging underneath with some absolutely freakishly tight baroclinic boundary. Looks kinda crazy but from looking at Canada you would say how in the heck is the conus that warm. 

Yea, but we both know the trough west, ridge east won't be static for 5+ days. Plenty of cold dropping along and east of the Rockies. It will make it here and we'll have below normal days in the mix. I think the spread with frontal timing and the propensity for the east to warm prior to passage make things look much more static than they are. It's a better look for us than we've had so far imo. As we moved forward and embedded features have more consensus were probably going to get some better looks inside of 10 day. 

 

With that being said, I don't expect anything good until after new years.