December Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[Ralph Wiggum]

If the pattern begins to change around January 1-5th why would you expect snow right away?  We do not do well with snow going into a cold pattern. The typical way we score is get blocking established and cold entrenched then as the blocking relaxes a system attacks the cold.  Absent blocking we often require systems to pull the baroclinic zone south for us to have a shot with a trailing wave. It's pretty rare a pattern change yields snow right away. We're talking about seeing changes, like the AK ridge and a tendency to raise heights in Greenland that could help us towards mid January not now. We're still pretty much not in chase mode for a while. But it's good to see signs things may begin to move the right way in early January so hopefully we don't punt the whole month. The pattern doesn't look perfect even in the long range but it's closer so that from there it could quickly turn good. This is a baby steps thing.  Right now we're in an absolute awful pattern. It's not going to just flip to snow overnight. 

Agree with this. There is usually a lag between when teleconnections turn favorable and when that actually reflects in the weather at the surface.

In not thrilled overall with the look over the N Hemi as we move forward, especially in the Atlantic (that NAO feature now appears like it wants to ridge farther East on ensembles and never truly head poleward affecting the AO). However, the Pac looks like it wants to cooperate via a robust -EPO ridge that may actually stick for a little while. There appears to be one heck of a CPF setting up as well with the originating cold coming directly out of Siberia across the globe. We can work with that. Get the cold in here, worry about storms later. The cold looks like it wants to return at least.

[psuhoffman]

We would be pretty happy if we saw this look right now. But look at the dates. Sometimes we forget how much luck plays a part. And how much it can suck around here in years the pattern isn't good most of the season and were not lucky when we need to be. 

[mdsnowlover]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the pattern begins to change around January 1-5th why would you expect snow right away?  We do not do well with snow going into a cold pattern. The typical way we score is get blocking established and cold entrenched then as the blocking relaxes a system attacks the cold.  Absent blocking we often require systems to pull the baroclinic zone south for us to have a shot with a trailing wave. It's pretty rare a pattern change yields snow right away. We're talking about seeing changes, like the AK ridge and a tendency to raise heights in Greenland that could help us towards mid January not now. We're still pretty much not in chase mode for a while. But it's good to see signs things may begin to move the right way in early January so hopefully we don't punt the whole month. The pattern doesn't look perfect even in the long range but it's closer so that from there it could quickly turn good. This is a baby steps thing.  Right now we're in an absolute awful pattern. It's not going to just flip to snow overnight. 

You make very valid points and I am familiar with - nap and how it influences the pattern, but you would think that with the obviously evident gradual shift that the tracks of low pressure systems would slowly evolve to our south, which by the current run of gfs Para isn't happening.I really don't expect to see snow being shown here right away, but would think the track shifting to our southouse. Been around a long time, seen a lot of things happen, just a bit disappointed I'm not seeing signs just yet. Thanks for your reply though.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Agree with this. There is usually a lag between when teleconnections turn favorable and when that actually reflects in the weather at the surface.

In not thrilled overall with the look over the N Hemi as we move forward, especially in the Atlantic (that NAO feature now appears like it wants to ridge farther East on ensembles and never truly head poleward affecting the AO). However, the Pac looks like it wants to cooperate via a robust -EPO ridge that may actually stick for a little while. There appears to be one heck of a CPF setting up as well with the originating cold coming directly out of Siberia across the globe. We can work with that. Get the cold in here, worry about storms later. The cold looks like it wants to return at least.

The Atlantic ridging is se of where we want. But my hope is once the mjo gets into more favorable phases that could change. We might need patience on this. 

[mdsnowlover]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We would be pretty happy if we saw this look right now. But look at the dates. Sometimes we forget how much luck plays a part. And how much it can suck around here in years the pattern isn't good most of the season and were not lucky when we need to be. 

In reality, in a good winter we may get 25 in of snow, but. Honestly our snow window in our area is Jan to end of Feb, just that simple.in weather terms that's ridiculously small.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

In reality, in a good winter we may get 25 in of snow, but. Honestly our snow window in our area is Jan to end of Feb, just that simple.in weather terms that's ridiculously small.

We appreciate it more because it's rare. I live in Manchester to stack the deck a bit more and I could maybe do with being somewhere that averages 50" but living in Vermont or the Rockies I might stop appreciating it if i took snow for granted. The suffering makes us enjoy it more. It's part of the thrill of the chase. 

[mdsnowlover]

Psuhoffman, by your last statement , you apparently are waiting till MJO hits phase 7, which is probably what the models are evolving to, which you also say requires patience.Yes this is true, so we. Basically have 3more weeks of futility, because that date is Jan 16 or later.jmho

[mdsnowlover]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We appreciate it more because it's rare. I live in Manchester to stack the deck a bit more and I could maybe do with being somewhere that averages 50" but living in Vermont or the Rockies I might stop appreciating it if i took snow for granted. The suffering makes us enjoy it more. It's part of the thrill of the chase. 

Sorry don't think suffering increases appreciation even more. I went to school for 3  year's in Elkins wva and experienced additional snowfall over our area, including famed lake effect snow, and was never satiated. I think if you love snow you never really get tired of it. Cold is a bit different.jmho

 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

Psuhoffman, by your last statement , you apparently are waiting till MJO hits phase 7, which is probably what the models are evolving to, which you also say requires patience.Yes this is true, so we. Basically have 3more weeks of futility, because that date is Jan 16 or later.jmho

You seem to have a "if it's not snowing it's crap" view of this. I'm looking for signs the pattern could evolve towards one we can snow in. We're not even close right now. When your in the Sahara you take a cup of water, not turn it down because it's not Niagara Falls. Yes we may have to wait for the mjo to hit 7. Maybe that's Jan 12. Maybe 20. Maybe the wave dies and goes COD and we wait longer. Or maybe we get lucky without it. Who knows. But getting things closer is step one. The mjo won't help us if the whole North American longwave pattern is a total disaster like right now. We could waste the whole favorable mjo phase just getting this wretched mess broken down. Mjo isn't going to save us alone. We have wasted plenty of good mjo phases. Let's get things closer. Knock down the pv a bit. Get the epo closer to where we need it. Then we can see if things can line up further down the road. I'm just glad we might not get to New Years still staring the crap were in now on the models through mid January. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

Sorry don't think suffering increases appreciation even more. I went to school for 3  year's in Elkins wva and experienced additional snowfall over our area, including famed lake effect snow, and was never satiated. I think if you love snow you never really get tired of it. Cold is a bit different.jmho

 

Loving snow and needing it on the ground all the time to be happy are two different things. Did I love 2009/10 yes. That was awesome. But if that was every year would I get as excited when we get a big storm, probably not. I've been to revelstoke twice for decent lengths of time. And did I love the snow hell yeah. But did I get excited to look out and see it pouring snow everyday, not really because that was normal. I still lived the snow but the excitement of the tracking and chase was gone. You seem to not enjoy the hunt and just want the payoff. I hate to say it but around here that's going to just frustrate you 90% of the time. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Loving snow and needing it on the ground all the time to be happy are two different things. Did I love 2009/10 yes. That was awesome. But if that was every year would I get as excited when we get a big storm, probably not. I've been to revelstoke twice for decent lengths of time. And did I over the snow hell yeah. But did I get excited to look out and see it pouring snow everyday, not really because that was normal. I still lived the snow but the excitement of the tracking and chase was gone. You seem to not enjoy the hunt and just want the payoff. I hate to say it but around here that's going to just frustrate you 90% of the time. 

I used to live in the Keweenaw peninsula and I can tell you, snow does lose its punch. Winter of 2013 we got 345". We were averaging like 18" of a snow a week. If the wind was off the lake, it snowed. Driving to work in whiteout was just a part of the typical morning. Wake up, "Oh it's snowing" . Moving here has definitely given me a better appreciation of snow. I dare to say I enjoyed the lead up to last years storm more than the thing itself lol. It takes a strong mentality to go through a winter here, with the constant emotional rollercoasters. Just two cents from someone who has lived in a place where feet of snow a week wasn't strange.

[mdsnowlover]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Loving snow and needing it on the ground all the time to be happy are two different things. Did I love 2009/10 yes. That was awesome. But if that was every year would I get as excited when we get a big storm, probably not. I've been to revelstoke twice for decent lengths of time. And did I love the snow hell yeah. But did I get excited to look out and see it pouring snow everyday, not really because that was normal. I still lived the snow but the excitement of the tracking and chase was gone. You seem to not enjoy the hunt and just want the payoff. I hate to say it but around here that's going to just frustrate you 90% of the time. 

I'm past the point of getting frustrated, I know what winter is really like around here, and yes, your right the chase doesn't interest me.I guess old age does that to you. 

[poolz1]

I don't know about the gfsp yet....It seems pretty insistent on overwhelming cold late in the period.  Is this just another bias or is it on to something?  It may not show much snow but that pattern, even with a +nao, would produce imo.  From Siberia with love.....

 

 

[Scraff]

9 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I don't know about the gfsp yet....It seems pretty insistent on overwhelming cold late in the period.  Is this just another bias or is it on to something?  It may not show much snow but that pattern, even with a +nao, would produce imo.  From Siberia with love.....

 

 

If that Siberian connection can work out anywhere around the date shown, you would think we all would be tracking something by next week this time? Guess I'm just in holiday hopeful mode. ;-)

[Bob Chill]

A generally colder regime is progged to take hold sometime around the 30th and might have some legs but that doesn't change the problem of the west storm track. I see no end to that at all in the next 15 days. All op and ens guidance show a pretty strong signal for low pressure tracking n&w of our area for the foreseeable future. Yea, the -epo and cross polar flow will help deliver cold air to the conus and moderated versions to our area but I wouldn't expect much for a while. Maybe a mixed even can get us on board. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A generally colder regime is progged to take hold sometime around the 30th and might have some legs but that doesn't change the problem of the west storm track. I see no end to that at all in the next 15 days. All op and ens guidance show a pretty strong signal for low pressure tracking n&w of our area for the foreseeable future. Yea, the -epo and cross polar flow will help deliver cold air to the conus and moderated versions to our area but I wouldn't expect much for a while. Maybe a mixed even can get us on board. 

First week of Jan offers a window for something, but we will need some luck. Various runs recently have shown some combo of transient blocking, 50-50-ish low, along with ridging out west. Best scenario would be a following wave that tracks under us. Like I said we will need luck, especially with timing. We can hope.

[poolz1]

I'm not a big follower of the SOI and don't claim to have a full handle on it's implications....as a diehard weenie, i still check it during these wait and see periods.  Is the latest value a glitch? I assume it is...never seen something like that.. -670.93???

 

Edit: Never mind...just read that it is a glitch....carry on

 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A generally colder regime is progged to take hold sometime around the 30th and might have some legs but that doesn't change the problem of the west storm track. I see no end to that at all in the next 15 days. All op and ens guidance show a pretty strong signal for low pressure tracking n&w of our area for the foreseeable future. Yea, the -epo and cross polar flow will help deliver cold air to the conus and moderated versions to our area but I wouldn't expect much for a while. Maybe a mixed even can get us on board. 

Yea the only way we're getting something in the pattern shown is if we get lucky and either we get a wave right behind a system or the epo really takes over and cold overwhelms so much it forces a wave train along the boundary with the SE ridge south of us. Both long shots. But I'm more optimistic then a week ago that were headed the right direction.  Some have brought up the mjo. Perhaps when we get into favorable phases if we're already in the pattern shown day 8-15 it wouldn't take much to quickly go into really good one. Really all we need from where most guidance has us day 15 is get the ridging over the North Atlantic to pull back into the nao domain fully instead of just transient side swipes. Does that happen?  Who knows. We could get to the edge of a good pattern then have it all fall apart like December did. But I'll take the look we're headed into over the one now for sure.  We usually get at least one period of opportunity even in the worst winters. Even in 2002 like I showed above. But in the truly awful years we lack luck in those opportunities.  On the bright side if all we're going to get is a couple week favorable window this year, getting it late January into February would be ideal for max potential.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

Where's my damn snow!??

 

[Bob Chill]

23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

First week of Jan offers a window for something, but we will need some luck. Various runs recently have shown some combo of transient blocking, 50-50-ish low, along with ridging out west. Best scenario would be a following wave that tracks under us. Like I said we will need luck, especially with timing. We can hope.

It doesn't look bad from here but one thing that has stood out this year is that by the time we start approaching what may be a better look it evolves into another west track rain followed by cold front. Until something looks decent inside of 7 days I'm going to expect the seasonal status quo so far. 

Ens mean looks seem to be deceiving us more this year than previous ones. Heck, the h5 mean for Dec mtd looks "ok" on the means but in reality it has pretty much sucked for chances at anything. When I look at this plot I think hmmm....50/50, cold canada, AK ridge, flirting with se ridge but gradient looks good...yea, that can be ok here. Persistence with storm track has been a rock this month. I'm not sure when that breaks but my guess is longer than we are currently thinking. 

 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Where's my damn snow!??

 

You know even if everything else about our winters were the same, if we just got one 3-6" snow every December it would do wonders to change the perception and satisfaction with winters on this forum for 99% of us. We wait all year then it gets cold but December is usually just a tease. Even though we know it will be it still sucks. I'm not sure if anything would satisfy JI, he even complained in 2010 but the rest of us would be way better if we just got that first one out of the way earlier each year. 

[gymengineer]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

We would be pretty happy if we saw this look right now. But look at the dates. Sometimes we forget how much luck plays a part. And how much it can suck around here in years the pattern isn't good most of the season and were not lucky when we need to be. 

As you know, 1/2-3/02 was a great southern snowstorm with a painful northern cutoff. 2-4" in Louisiana through southern MS, AL ,and GA,  a foot in Raleigh, 8" in Richmond. We were all trying to will it north and west into a 1/2000-style model bust. 

[usedtobe]

The only good thing on the progs is the ridging developing over AK.   Unfortunately, the GEFS and Euro ens means also have really high heights over Nova Scotia and the region where we'd like to see a 50 50 low.  The other negative is the below normal heights stay out west.  That combo suggests any strong lows go to our north. The latest Euro weeklies don't look very favorable for snow through the month but as long as there is cold air we can get lucky with perfect timing of a wave behind on of the cold fronts.  Still, it's not a good pattern for snow.   Seem like a pattern more conducive to freezing rain events than snow storms but at the longer ranges chaos rules so who really knows. 

[Wonderdog]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

You know even if everything else about our winters were the same, if we just got one 3-6" snow every December it would do wonders to change the perception and satisfaction with winters on this forum for 99% of us. We wait all year then it gets cold but December is usually just a tease. Even though we know it will be it still sucks. I'm not sure if anything would satisfy JI, he even complained in 2010 but the rest of us would be way better if we just got that first one out of the way earlier each year. 

That hardly happens in the mid atlantic, no matter how hard one wishes for it. But I'm sensing a negative attitude with the way things look in the mid to long range today, compared to the last two days. What has actually changed in the guidance today as opposed to the last two days?

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

The only good thing on the progs is the ridging developing over AK.   Unfortunately, the GEFS and Euro ens means also have really high heights over Nova Scotia and the region where we'd like to see a 50 50 low.  The other negative is the below normal heights stay out west.  That combo suggests any strong lows go to our north. The latest Euro weeklies don't look very favorable for snow through the month but as long as there is cold air we can get lucky with perfect timing of a wave behind on of the cold fronts.  Still, it's not a good pattern for snow.   Seem like a pattern more conducive to freezing rain events than snow storms but at the longer ranges chaos rules so who really knows. 

It really does seem like mixed events will be the best offering for a while outside of a luck shot. I'm not pessimistic or anything. Just realistic (something you ALWAYS are. lol). It could be a lot better and it could be a lot worse so purgatory it is. 

 

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

That hardly happens in the mid atlantic, no matter how hard one wishes for it. But I'm sensing a negative attitude with the way things look in the mid to long range today, compared to the last two days. What has actually changed in the guidance today as opposed to the last two days?

I think you may have been misinterpreting the tone the last couple days. We seem to be avoiding the worst case scenario so that is good. But that doesn't = good snow chances. I don't think anyone said they thought things looked like a high prob of a snowstorm. Just not a shutout pattern. 

[usedtobe]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

It really does seem like mixed events will be the best offering for a while outside of a luck shot. I'm not pessimistic or anything. Just realistic (something you ALWAYS are. lol). It could be a lot better and it could be a lot worse so purgatory it is. 

 

The euro weeklies suggest not much change for the better through January.  I guess the good thing is now models even ens means aren't much good that far out so the pattern could be way different than forecast. 

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It doesn't look bad from here but one thing that has stood out this year is that by the time we start approaching what may be a better look it evolves into another west track rain followed by cold front. Until something looks decent inside of 7 days I'm going to expect the seasonal status quo so far. 

Ens mean looks seem to be deceiving us more this year than previous ones. Heck, the h5 mean for Dec mtd looks "ok" on the means but in reality it has pretty much sucked for chances at anything. When I look at this plot I think hmmm....50/50, cold canada, AK ridge, flirting with se ridge but gradient looks good...yea, that can be ok here. Persistence with storm track has been a rock this month. I'm not sure when that breaks but my guess is longer than we are currently thinking. 

 

 

 

 

Agreed on the ens mean being somewhat deceiving, although some of that has been the usual unicorn blocking that never comes to fruition. In retrospect we can look at that map and see all the flaws. We are always flawed here though lol. We need some luck even with a near ideal pattern.

[mitchnick]

     I'm firmly with Bob, Wes, and PSU. The trough has got to get out of the western US. Although most make fun of the CFS2, it has served me well if you know what to look for imho. First, its DEC forecast was for + 1-2C degrees, which is looking pretty good. BUT, you also have to look at its precip maps to get a decent idea of storm tracks. Its DEC precip forecast had the bulk of the precip to our west....not good because the wettest side of the surface low pressure track is to its west. For JAN, it is going with + .5 to 1C above normal using the monthly products. That alone will not kill our snow chances. BUT, below is the precip map. It shows us with AN precip, which is good to see. But it still has that area of AN precip stretching into the lower Great Lakes. That gives me pause and suggests that much of our precip will come from events like last week; but leaves open chances for the trailing lows after cold frontal passages.  Again, my interpretation of the model, but it has not done badly the past few years so long as you don't take it on face value.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif

 

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think you may have been misinterpreting the tone the last couple days. We seem to be avoiding the worst case scenario so that is good. But that doesn't = good snow chances. I don't think anyone said they thought things looked like a high prob of a snowstorm. Just not a shutout pattern. 

Yeah, I think a lot of it is perception.  Not long ago it was a wall-to-wall lousy look, even some (semi jesting) calls for shorts on Christmas.  Now, there's at least some kind of hope heading into the New Year.  But as you say, that doesn't necessarily mean we're getting a snowstorm and it's not as if the advertised pattern is ideal.  Others have expounded on this, but even any evolving positive change won't be "felt" right away.  Still, far better than it looked before.