December Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[frd]

CFS V-2 trending colder for January. Today's run coldest yet I believe for the East. 

The Pac is really transitioning to deliver the goods in January based on the last few days.

Also saw the weighted mean composite of the 7 best analogs for Jan 2017  , looks good .   

 

 

[mdsnowlover]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

And 12z op euro with the same look as the GEFS at day 10. 

Can you briefly explain

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

Can you briefly explain

Look at the map posted of the day 10 gefs and the euro looks close to that. 

 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Look at the map posted of the day 10 gefs and the euro looks close to that. 

 

Does the euro have any frozen for us on the 28th-29th? Looks like maybe 850 temps hold to start potentially? Surface temps might be warm though? I at least like seeing a closed low passing to our south, even if the big dog is still up in the lakes.

[psuhoffman]

51 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

PSU, take a look at the Para-GFS 06z at 210 Hours. Am I wrong or is that a pretty good look?

Looks fine to me. It manages to miss us with 2 close calls day 12-16 but I'm not analyzing details at that range. 

[H2O]

We need to thank Siberia if this pattern does come to fruition.  The higher heights that eventually allows a PAC/ATL bridge to from by hr 216 on the euro starts from Russia and drifts up to the pole.  That starts to shove things around enough.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Does the euro have any frozen for us on the 28th-29th? Looks like maybe 850 temps hold to start potentially? Surface temps might be warm though? I at least like seeing a closed low passing to our south, even if the big dog is still up in the lakes.

Not really. Close but just an inch in our far far far nw zones. Then another 1-2" nw of 95 day 10. It's not a bad run though given where we're coming from. 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

18z GFS

[dmillz25]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

By day 10....(Time stamp 6 hours off)

A super -NAO and a pretty potent-EPO. I'm salivating at the thought of that

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

18z GFS

The blues and reds are in the right place. Just get that weak system over Maine a little stronger to get some blues out towards 50/50 and dare I say that's a woof worthy look. 

[Eskimo Joe]

That's a decent look, and Bob is spot on WRT ENS > OP at this range.  

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

18z gefs

Look at the individual members. Their all over the place. Past day ten they have no clue. 

[nj2va]

Mitch will be happy to see CFS2 flipped to BN temps next month.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Look at the individual members. Their all over the place. Past day ten they have no clue. 

Where do you see these on wxbell?

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

 

Where do you see these on wxbell?

 

I look at them at psu ewall

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

 

Where do you see these on wxbell?

 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I did and your absolutely right. Through day 7 there's ok agreement . I was merely posting the lastest 16 day .

Yea I was just pointing out the mean is useless with so much spread right now. There is pretty good agreement on the AK ridge and nothing else past day 10. 

[PaEasternWX]

So basically we went from winter cancel to a chance.

[WinterWxLuvr]

42 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Mitch will be happy to see CFS2 flipped to BN temps next month.

LOL, now there's a shocker.  Check it again in about a week and it'll probably show above normal

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, PaEasternWX said:

So basically we went from winter cancel to a chance.

Quickly

[Thanatos_I_Am]

So basically we went from winter cancel to a chance.

Even though the 18z GFS won't verify, thats more than a chance.

[psuhoffman]

Euro weeklies are awful. Worst I've ever seen. Ridge over the east right to February. I don't put much stock in them the way things are flipping around now. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro weeklies are awful. Worst I've ever seen. Ridge over the east right to February. I don't put much stock in them the way things are flipping around now. 

Useless tool.  Right on par with the CFS

[CAPE]

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro weeklies are awful. Worst I've ever seen. Ridge over the east right to February. I don't put much stock in them the way things are flipping around now. 

Pretty ambiguous run overall looking at h5 height anomalies. 850 temps verbatim would put us above normal everyday in Jan outside of maybe 3 lol. Its a major meh, but I am not going to lose any sleep over it.

[nj2va]

I have to agree Winterwx. I really do respect those who have the passion and desire to dive deep into the long range ...I really do, but I just can't gather myself to do it . 

 

Maybe because I have too many hobbies. ...Lol 

Agreed. It's the first full day of winter and the models can already show us how the end of February might turn out. Sometimes the amount of model data can be a bad thing. Anything past 10-15 days is a waste of time to fret about IMO.

[mdsnowlover]

Find it interesting that, despite all the talk here about a pattern evolving, gfs Para show nothing in the way of snow thru Jan 6th.Looks like DT maybe right, no snow till after MJO reaches phase 7.BTW you guys are very good, not complaining here, it's just interesting to me.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Find it interesting that, despite all the talk here about a pattern evolving, gfs Para show nothing in the way of snow thru Jan 6th.Looks like DT maybe right, no snow till after MJO reaches phase 7.BTW you guys are very good, not complaining here, it's just interesting to me.

It is strange. Would really suck to get exactly what we want and it be all for nothing.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, mdsnowlover said:

Find it interesting that, despite all the talk here about a pattern evolving, gfs Para show nothing in the way of snow thru Jan 6th.Looks like DT maybe right, no snow till after MJO reaches phase 7.BTW you guys are very good, not complaining here, it's just interesting to me.

If the pattern begins to change around January 1-5th why would you expect snow right away?  We do not do well with snow going into a cold pattern. The typical way we score is get blocking established and cold entrenched then as the blocking relaxes a system attacks the cold.  Absent blocking we often require systems to pull the baroclinic zone south for us to have a shot with a trailing wave. It's pretty rare a pattern change yields snow right away. We're talking about seeing changes, like the AK ridge and a tendency to raise heights in Greenland that could help us towards mid January not now. We're still pretty much not in chase mode for a while. But it's good to see signs things may begin to move the right way in early January so hopefully we don't punt the whole month. The pattern doesn't look perfect even in the long range but it's closer so that from there it could quickly turn good. This is a baby steps thing.  Right now we're in an absolute awful pattern. It's not going to just flip to snow overnight. 

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

 

It is strange. Would really suck to get exactly what we want and it be all for nothing.

 

We're getting what we want if you mean progress and signs the current +epo +epo + nao pattern might break down soon. Nothing shows exactly what we want yet though to get snow. Looks kind of like a -wpo +epo neutral nao in the long range. So we are half way there.  Need to lose the WAR. The ridging in the Atlantic is still east of where we need it. And need the AK ridge to muscle east a bit to force the trough axis east. We're seeing some op runs do that but ensembles still suggest it's too fast. I think eventually we get that look. It makes sense from a pattern evolution. But might be mid to late January. Maybe even feb before we get it there. Some years were lucky and the status quo is a favorable pattern all season. The rest we fight to get a window where things line up then pray we get lucky. Our snow comes in spurts during those windows. With luck we can cash in and eek out a decent year in seasons like this like 2000 (a year that pops up a lot in analogs) and if we're unlucky during those windows we get 2002 (another year that pops up). People forget we had a favorable period in late December and into mid January that year. One storm was suppressed. Another ran just inland. Harrisburgh got a big snow. Then a good Overunning setup underperformed. All the clippers missed us. We got unlucky. Everyone remembers how awful the rest of the winter was but the problem was we missed our during our 3 week window. With some luck that year would have been remembered like most winters, not good but not awful. 

[mdsnowlover]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the pattern begins to change around January 1-5th why would you expect snow right away?  We do not do well with snow going into a cold pattern. The typical way we score is get blocking established and cold entrenched then as the blocking relaxes a system attacks the cold.  Absent blocking we often require systems to pull the baroclinic zone south for us to have a shot with a trailing wave. It's pretty rare a pattern change yields snow right away. We're talking about seeing changes, like the AK ridge and a tendency to raise heights in Greenland that could help us towards mid January not now. We're still pretty much not in chase mode for a while. But it's good to see signs things may begin to move the right way in early January so hopefully we don't punt the whole month. The pattern doesn't look perfect even in the long range but it's closer so that from there it could quickly turn good. This is a baby steps thing.  Right now we're in an absolute awful pattern. It's not going to just flip to snow overnight. 

You make very valid points and I am familiar with - nap and how it influences the pattern, but you would think that with the obviously evident gradual shift that the tracks of low pressure systems would slowly evolve to our south, which by the current run of gfs Para isn't happening.I really don't expect to see snow being shown here right away, but would think the track shifting to our southouse. Been around a long time, seen a lot of things happen, just a bit disappointed I'm not seeing signs just yet. Thanks for your reply though.