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December Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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winterymix

winterymix

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro day 10 leaves us in a pretty good pattern actually.  Again it is just one run of an op, but we are now seeing a lot of random runs showing the AO going negative either initiated by the AK ridge or in the case of the Euro from the WAR retrograding into Greenland.  Either works for us.  I still think this is probably rushing it, but it opens the slim chance that perhaps we do just slide right into this look quickly without much warning.  Have to see if support for it starts to show up in future runs and ensembles.  But to me the fact that numerous runs keep trying to get the PV out of its location and raise heights over the AO/NAO domain makes me think something in the pattern drivers wants to take us there and perhaps we will get there eventually if not sooner, later.  Thing's definitely look a lot better now then 48 hours ago. 

 

Euro.png

Zero blocking, ferocious +NAO.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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6 minutes ago, winterymix said:

Zero blocking, ferocious +NAO.

You're obviously not looking at the same map I'm referring too. And you don't need blocking to get snow.  Not every -ao or nao is a block. We tend to call every ridge in the AO or nao space a block nowadays.   The nao is not raging positive there either. If you want to see what a raging pos nao looks like just look at it right now. 

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

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39 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Still trying to absorb as much information as I can, but if we want snow in DC, what should those 500 maps look like?

Other, more knowledgeable, posters should be along soon to expand on this, but in general I think you want to see those higher heights in the Atlantic more to the NW, centered over Greenland, or just a bit to the west of center, and the PAC ridge moved a bit east, centered more over AK rather than the Aleutians.

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winterymix

winterymix

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11 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

At least things have improved enough to be worth talking about the guidance a bit again.  For several days it was nothing but ugly on EVERYTHING.  However, I am not getting carried away, if we were actually in a good pattern now looking at what were now seeing in the long range we would probably be less then excited.  But beggars can't be choosers so... My take on the full overnight runs is the long range continues to be more ambiguous then it was.  Ambiguous is good when the alternative was being locked into a god awful death pattern.  But make no mistake, the look shown on the long range GEFS and EPS is not great, just kinda meh.  The GGEM is actually still showing the god awful look but its also totally on its own around day 7-10 with some major changes that take place and by being off on that it remains locked into the pattern with no change in the long range.  Since the EPS and GEFS are now in agreement on the events a week out I am tossing the GGEM ensembles as I strongly feel they are late to the party here and are missing the pattern evolution completely. 

Both the GEFS and EPS pump a ridge into AK that helps a trough get into the east around day 7-10.  This is a new and encouraging development.  It wasnt showing up when it was out at long range and just kind of popped up around day 10.  This trough is transient as both the AK ridge and the WAR are a bit west and east respectively of where we need them to help lock in a cold pattern.  I have doubts about the ability to score a meaningful snow event from this period since we usually do better with second or third chances in a cold pattern and the trough being transient, unless we get perfect timing, its probably a rainstorm, cold, then warm up before anything else comes.  But the fact that this whole development was completely unseen when it was beyond day 10 is encouraging, both that the models may be totally off on some of the not so good features they still have in the long range, but also that the AK ridge seems to want to be a recurring feature this year.  While that alone wont guarantee anything it keeps us in the game and will help cold push south when it goes up. 

After this transient cold blast the models become less sure of what to do in the long range.  I actually like the EPS look a bit better, keeps the AK ridge stronger and is kind of neutral in the NAO domain.  By no means is it a good look but its not terrible either.  We would get some cold with that look but it would probably be transient and we would struggle to get storms not to cut without timing something up well.  Same old problems we are used to in a not ideal pattern.  Its workable at least, better then we were seeing the last week. 

My take is based on what were seeing in the guidance that perhaps this coming period is going to be more transient and volatile then the long term eastern ridge of death look we were getting before.  That is a definite step in the right direction.  What I am not seeing yet though is much evidence we are heading into a long term snow friendly pattern for us.  There are some things that seem to be showing themselves as trends this year that may be stable.  The WAR, AK ridge, strong PAC jet, and SE ridge.  Those 4 seem to be the most consistent features.  Given those might be the base state of this winter what I think is our best chance and what I am looking for is what the Para-GFS last night actually showed in the long range (see below).  I think if we keep those features all season the best way to beat down the SE ridge and offset the PAC jet will be to get either the AK Ridge to build up into the Arctic or the WAR to retrograde back into the NAO domain.  You get either to happen and you force the PV to drop down and then the other ridge will naturally fill the void and link up the two and suddenly we have a -NAO/-AO and a trough in the east.  The cold is there so it wouldn't that long to get into a good pattern either.  The Para GFS actually shows this, it pumps the AK ridge up and forces the PV out of its position, and towards the end you can clearly see the heights building in the NAO domain in response as the two ridges start to link up.  Basically get that PV to drop and the WAR will naturally retrograde in above it to fill the void.  I dont know that it will happen or when, but given the look we seem to have for this winter that series of events is our best bet to get a really good window for snow this winter.  That look on the long range PARA GFS is one that it would be hard for us to get out of without some snow.  I doubt it happens that fast, not much support for it yet, but I think it may be previewing what could happen at some point this winter.  Probably later in January or February. 

connect.png

 

nao.jpg

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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1 hour ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Still trying to absorb as much information as I can, but if we want snow in DC, what should those 500 maps look like?

Any of these would do...the blocking can be located in different places but usually we need higher heights somewhere in the arctic region and you will notice the lower heights to our northeast in the Atlantic. That WAR is going to be a problem if we can't get it to lift out at some point. 

image.gifimage.gifimage.gifimage.gif

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Any of these would do...the blocking can be located in different places but usually we need higher heights somewhere in the arctic region and you will notice the lower heights to our northeast in the Atlantic. That WAR is going to be a problem if we can't get it to lift out at some point. 

image.gifimage.gifimage.gifimage.gif

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/12-mid-atlantic/porn

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Ridging in western Canada can get it done too. Again no WAR. Our biggest obstacle this winter might be getting that WAR up into Greenland or pushed out. It seems like a very stable feature and it's going to be a problem. Right now we're just trying to get a pattern we can hope to score in but once we gave one we're going to get frustrated fast watching that feature screw up all our threats. It was around much of last winter but took a hiatus for a bit and we took advantage big time. image.gif

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Aren't all of those massive storms?

What about more reasonable events?

How about a good clipper setup?  Or the classic cad setup?

Good point. Clippers are overrated. Rarely do they amount to more then 2" area wide. They can be nice icing on the cake events but if that's all you get in an entire season it's a BAD year. We have to score a solid event somewhere. I'll pull up some moderate snows randomly to see but I think the basic looks are the same just those storms didn't go to the level of the big ones. Of course there will be more fluke small snows but do we really want to live dangerously waiting for an Anamoly?  Better bet is get the WAR out of there at some point. 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Good point. Clippers are overrated. Rarely do they amount to more then 2" area wide. They can be nice icing on the cake events but if that's all you get in an entire season it's a BAD year. We have to score a solid event somewhere. I'll pull up some moderate snows randomly to see but I think the basic looks are the same just those storms didn't go to the level of the big ones. Of course there will be more fluke small snows but do we really want to live dangerously waiting for an Anamoly?  Better bet is get the WAR out of there at some point. 

I'm thinking of a good event around Jan 20, 2014.

Im doing some of my own maps.  One I just did was Dec. 7, 2013.  That was a good event here, not so much to the east.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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41 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'd also like to see Feb of 2014, Feb of 2015, March 2015.

March 2015 might be the closest to the pattern we keep seeing this year. But remember that took a front going through with lots of rain then a wave right on its tail. Perfect timing. Plus the ridging isn't there as bad. But it's close and definitely was a flawed pattern. image.gif

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