Ji Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Just now, psuhoffman said: Agreed. It's a first step. Let's just hope tomorrow it's not off a cliff. well nobody is better than us at taking one step forward and 5 steps back...so proceed with caution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The gfs is showing the way out. Either higher heights into Greenland or Alaska or better connect the two. That how we probably finally kick out. But the gfs is probably too fast as usual. It's saying right after New Years. I would be thrilled at this point if it's a week fast and the pattern breaks down by the second week of January. I'm seriously not trying to stir the pot here but isn't this the same exact philosophy/timeline that got critqued and ultimately banned by a member who wrote this (yes trolling) Yestersay... That the 2nd week in Jan provides a potential pattern relaxation/opportunity. Listen, I know y'all have your little fraternity here but I read the two pages of ganging up on that guy yesterday. And at the end of the day he was expressing an opinion that may not be that far off base. Granted he was doing it in a pretty abbrasive manner... I too agree that even in a pattern this futile, there can be hope heading into a good climo period. yes, I know this post will probably get deleted by the mods because sensorship is what this country was founded on, right? just saying guys... The weatherbuff guy said the same thing y'all are saying is possible moving forward. That's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Where is the qbo flip being talked about? I'm not discounting it just curious what the source is. I've not seen anything at ncep but they only update once a month and at 30 and 50 mb. On page 24. "I believe it was just yesterday, that Isotherm stated he felt that the long term cycle of the positive NAO would start to change early in January. Makes you wonder as well about the QBO and what that is up to , have not checked lately". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 12 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: I'm seriously not trying to stir the pot here but isn't this the same exact philosophy/timeline that got critqued and ultimately banned by a member who wrote this (yes trolling) Yestersay... That the 2nd week in Jan provides a potential pattern relaxation/opportunity. Listen, I know y'all have your little fraternity here but I read the two pages of ganging up on that guy yesterday. And at the end of the day he was expressing an opinion that may not be that far off base. Granted he was doing it in a pretty abbrasive manner... I too agree that even in a pattern this futile, there can be hope heading into a good climo period. yes, I know this post will probably get deleted by the mods because sensorship is what this country was founded on, right? just saying guys... The weatherbuff guy said the same thing y'all are saying is possible moving forward. That's all I was late to that party but my issue with him was solely that he keeps proclaiming that Carbondale will do ok I'm this pattern. He is wrong. It's probably going to rain twice there in the next week and that's it. Down the road who knows but he seems to think a massive eastern ridge is fine for his area. I lived up his way and I'm familiar with their climo and o tried to correct him. He got obnoxious with me and even argued he gets 70" a year when a ski resort just north of him averages 60. Besides that was the 3rd time in the last few weeks it went into other forums up let then known he thought he would do better then them. Once you do that anything else you say is going to fall on deaf ears. It's not what he said its how he said it. He is either a troll or a moron or both. People are welcome to give knowledgable pattern analysis pertinent to our area as long as their not being dicks about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 18 minutes ago, leo1000 said: On page 24. "I believe it was just yesterday, that Isotherm stated he felt that the long term cycle of the positive NAO would start to change early in January. Makes you wonder as well about the QBO and what that is up to , have not checked lately". The nao and qbo are not the same thing. They correlate but not the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 20 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: I'm seriously not trying to stir the pot here but isn't this the same exact philosophy/timeline that got critqued and ultimately banned by a member who wrote this (yes trolling) Yestersay... That the 2nd week in Jan provides a potential pattern relaxation/opportunity. Listen, I know y'all have your little fraternity here but I read the two pages of ganging up on that guy yesterday. And at the end of the day he was expressing an opinion that may not be that far off base. Granted he was doing it in a pretty abbrasive manner... I too agree that even in a pattern this futile, there can be hope heading into a good climo period. yes, I know this post will probably get deleted by the mods because sensorship is what this country was founded on, right? just saying guys... The weatherbuff guy said the same thing y'all are saying is possible moving forward. That's all No. Also, you are mistaking a private board with government regulation on free speech, so, no. Also, no one here cares how anything looks for "THE INTERIOR". There are forums for that, devoted to "THE INTERIOR". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Some interesting and less than insignificant changes on the EPS. Now showing a decent signal for aleutian/ak ridge pressing poleward. Starts @ D9 and builds through the rest of the run. Trop PV is suppressed further south than previous runs so there are lower heights in the east (not below normal but the red ridge in the east now looks like a yellow plain. lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Some interesting and less than insignificant changes on the EPS. Now showing a decent signal for aleutian/ak ridge pressing poleward. Starts @ D9 and builds through the rest of the run. Trop PV is suppressed further south than previous runs so there are lower heights in the east (not below normal but the red ridge in the east now looks like a yellow plain. lol). I was just seeing that and thinking the same. It's a step towards a better look. Build that AK ridge a bit more and force the PV to drop then suddenly the ridging over the North Atlantic retrogrades into Greenland and it's game on. Even as is it would allow some cold to penetrate east and give us opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Just now, psuhoffman said: I was just seeing that and thinking the same. It's a step towards a better look. Build that AK ridge a bit more and force the PV to drop then suddenly the ridging over the North Atlantic retrogrades into Greenland and it's game on. Even as is it would allow some cold to penetrate east and give us opportunities. The most important thing in general is to hope the big +AO/NAO/-PNA is just a phase in a volatile winter and not a statue. GEFS is more aggressive with raising heights near GL and the EPS is more aggressive with raising heights near AK>poleward. If they're both right then your scenario would happen. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The most important thing in general is to hope the big +AO/NAO/-PNA is just a phase in a volatile winter and not a statue. GEFS is more aggressive with raising heights near GL and the EPS is more aggressive with raising heights near AK>poleward. If they're both right then your scenario would happen. lol We have seen a tendency for both to happen in spurts and be hinted at on guidance. Just not timed up. My hope is at some point we get both to sync up and get a really nice two week window. Score two good snowstorms in that window and I'm satisfied and happy with the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2016 Author Share Posted December 20, 2016 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Some interesting and less than insignificant changes on the EPS. Now showing a decent signal for aleutian/ak ridge pressing poleward. Starts @ D9 and builds through the rest of the run. Trop PV is suppressed further south than previous runs so there are lower heights in the east (not below normal but the red ridge in the east now looks like a yellow plain. lol). I thought the longer range started looking better with yesterday's 12z runs and it seems to have continued today. Even better, it seems to be getting faster. If you compare the EPS mean from yesterday's 240 map to today's 216 map you see a little better looking pattern that is a little further along than it was modeled yesterday. It at least looks like a pattern that would allow cold to drain in from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Right or wrong...the gfs/gefs have been block happy the last 4 runs. Just pray or sacrifice chickens that #1) they're right and #2) it doesn't get endlessly pushed back in time. Go murica! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Right or wrong...the gfs/gefs have been block happy the last 4 runs. Just pray or sacrifice chickens that #1) they're right and #2) it doesn't get endlessly pushed back in time. Go murica! Are you at all intrigued by the setup around 240 on the 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Are you at all intrigued by the setup around 240 on the 18z GFS? I would like to be but will hold my enthusiasm. More intrigued by the wedge around Xmas. I thought for sure it would be 2015 redux. I'll take clouds and 50 no problem. Just no turning on the AC like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 15 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Are you at all intrigued by the setup around 240 on the 18z GFS? Not really. D8-10 is the first wave in what might be a change to getting rid of the perisitant ridge in the SE. We don't do well with a first break. It's the first window to keep an eyeball on though. I think the more imortant thing is seeing a better h5 pattern in general on the ops. Even though ops are wacky out in time, when they start throwing good looks in combination with improving ensemble runs they do work in tandem to build a little confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not really. D8-10 is the first wave in what might be a change to getting rid of the perisitant ridge in the SE. We don't do well with a first break. It's the first window to keep an eyeball on though. I think the more imortant thing is seeing a better h5 pattern in general on the ops. Even though ops are wacky out in time, when they start throwing good looks in combination with improving ensemble runs they do work in tandem to build a little confidence. I don't disagree and the antecedent airmass is going to be pretty meh, but this is a decent look for us. Not great, but decent. AK ridge goes up over the pole briefly. Probably not enough to get the AO negative, but at least near neutral and the PNA goes + transiently. But nothing to force the s/w to pass to our south, so certainly a cutter risk. But, this is probably the best looking window in the next 2 weeks at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not really. D8-10 is the first wave in what might be a change to getting rid of the perisitant ridge in the SE. We don't do well with a first break. It's the first window to keep an eyeball on though. I think the more imortant thing is seeing a better h5 pattern in general on the ops. Even though ops are wacky out in time, when they start throwing good looks in combination with improving ensemble runs they do work in tandem to build a little confidence. Speaking of the East Coast and the ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2016 Author Share Posted December 21, 2016 I'd think the gefs mean looks even better at h5 than the op does in that day 9-10 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 9 minutes ago, frd said: Speaking of the East Coast and the ridge LOL- just yesterday Cohen clearly stated he's unsure and that his forecast might suck. He probably looks at more model runs than all of us combined while praying that something breaks to fit his model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2016 Author Share Posted December 21, 2016 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Speaking of hour 240 ish. Latest gefs ind. member 500s . Most put a beat down on that s/e ridge. A few runs in a row now showing up similar. Is this from PSU? I cant get that site to load on my phone anymore. I don't know if it's a site problem or a phone problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Glad to see there is light at the end of the tunnel. Now the big question is with the window of opportunity that is coming up potentially around early to mid January will we be be able to produce? As you can see in the image below, there are a few positive things. First of all notice the falling NAO and the rising PNA. You guys like Bob Chill have much better experience on this but I am pretty sure if we get decent atlantic blocking we can overcome a potentially bad pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: LOL- just yesterday Cohen clearly stated he's unsure and that his forecast might suck. He probably looks at more model runs than all of us combined while praying that something breaks to fit his model. ROFL......Hey Bob, from your lips to his ears :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 4 hours ago, PivotPoint said: I'm seriously not trying to stir the pot here but isn't this the same exact philosophy/timeline that got critqued and ultimately banned by a member who wrote this (yes trolling) Yestersay... That the 2nd week in Jan provides a potential pattern relaxation/opportunity. Listen, I know y'all have your little fraternity here but I read the two pages of ganging up on that guy yesterday. And at the end of the day he was expressing an opinion that may not be that far off base. Granted he was doing it in a pretty abbrasive manner... I too agree that even in a pattern this futile, there can be hope heading into a good climo period. yes, I know this post will probably get deleted by the mods because sensorship is what this country was founded on, right? just saying guys... The weatherbuff guy said the same thing y'all are saying is possible moving forward. That's all lol @ "sensorship" Hi weatherbuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 26 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: Glad to see there is light at the end of the tunnel. Now the big question is with the window of opportunity that is coming up potentially around early to mid January will we be be able to produce? As you can see in the image below, there are a few positive things. First of all notice the falling NAO and the rising PNA. You guys like Bob Chill have much better experience on this but I am pretty sure if we get decent atlantic blocking we can overcome a potentially bad pac. I think the PAC is more important in general for us than the Atlantic, but you need at least one in your favor to have a shot. We've had some storms historically with a big positive NAO but a great PAC (13-14) and some with a great -NAO but a -PNA (someone jump in with an example). But the later scenario is much more workable for our SNE friends than for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Right or wrong...the gfs/gefs have been block happy the last 4 runs. Just pray or sacrifice chickens that #1) they're right and #2) it doesn't get endlessly pushed back in time. Go murica! Exactly, and that is rather remarkable for it to be that consistent four runs in a row so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2016 Author Share Posted December 21, 2016 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: @WinterWxLuvr Yep ..PSU At top of page under ( MREFs) http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Hey thanks. I got it to work by disabling the pop up blocker on safari. It was never a problem before the latest software update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Looking over the ens means, I am cautiously optimistic about some improvement in the pattern. On the Pacific side, there are solid hints of epo and even pna ridging showing up. Still not convinced we are headed towards any meaningful blocking in the NA. The +height anomalies are too far east, and on recent GEFS runs, a bit further south- more of a WAR. Of course this is all towards the end of the run, so we will have to see where it goes from there. Even as currently advertised we should get some cold intrusions over the next couple weeks, and all the usual issues with track and timing with any storm chances. Hopefully by mid Jan things have reshuffled enough, and combined with better climo, more/better opportunities will be on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Respectable changes in the GEFS mean LR from yesterday. Scandinavian Ridge moves poleward and forms transient -AO late month (which then retrogrades to the Aleutians region) which may present a brief window of opportunity if the -AO verifies. As I posted over in PHL, as long as that tropospheric PV is anchored over N Central Canada, any blocking at high latitude on our side of the globe will likely be transient and unable to lock in or sustain itself. Jury is out on that but those are my thoughts attm. We could still, as noted on the means and several individual ens members, be able to time transient favorable teleconnections with opportunities at the surface in the Eastern US....right place, right time sorta thing. Will likely be the theme until a SSWE presents itself to allow for a more prolonged and sustainable pattern shift. Again, dont need a favorable pattern locked in for the entire winter to get snowfall. We will probably still be close to avg with these opportunistic systems when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 14 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Right or wrong...the gfs/gefs have been block happy the last 4 runs. Just pray or sacrifice chickens that #1) they're right and #2) it doesn't get endlessly pushed back in time. Go murica! Just make sure to use live chickens and not KFC. And don't mess with Jobu's rum...that's VERY bad! Anyhow, yes, the signs for the past few runs at least in the ensembles is encouraging as we get into January. Like several here, I do worry about the better pattern look getting pushed back in time again and again, or having it disappear. But cautiously optimistic all the same. Maybe because it's the Holidays! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Can someone verify for me that according to an article in wash post the artic is 40-50 degrees above normal and approaching 32 degrees xmas day,?? I thought with a positive AO the exact opposite would be true, ??can someone just verify which is the true statement, ty in advanceSent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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