December Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah probably low to mid 50s for Xmas day with some showers.

Just a lesser degree of crap.  Like having a s*** sandwich on fresh baked bread.  

[PaEasternWX]

Don't worry guys March will be our month like it always is. But my feeling is, if we wait to March before we get snow, there won't be a forum left. Just a pile of debris so to speak.

[MJO812]

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

He was just trolling in the NYC forum earlier telling them how its not gonna snow on the coast but...GUESS WHO will do well

No one will do well in this upcoming pattern except for the midwest and nortern Maine

[mdsnowlover]

Here comes the wave train. #lolensembleaveraging

 

 

[Ji]

2 hours ago, mdsnowlover said:

Here comes the wave train. #lolensembleaveraging

 

 

6z 384 gfs please 

[nw baltimore wx]

Way out there but way better?

[H2O]

get that modeled blocking to show up inside 300 hrs and I'll believe it.  There is one thing to say for a pattern that is at the bottom of the bottom.  Only one way to go.  

[ldub23]

I put my trust  in Joe Bastardi. Lots of snow and  cold to come.

[showmethesnow]

After spending the last week watching the models run lock step with each other run after run we may now be seeing hints of a possible pattern reshuffle. Looking at the various runs over the last couple of days the models are now diverging somewhat on a key feature that would have implications down the road. Looking at the 500's the GEFS has steadily moved towards intensifying higher heights over the polar regions with what looks to be attempts to bridge an Aleutian ridge with an Western Europe ridge. On the other hand the EPS has steadily increased the low height anomalies in this region presenting a strong PV feature over the polar regions. The CMC for the most part leans fairly heavily towards the GEFS at this time. Now whether the GEFS is right with possible changes in the polar region at this time or the EPS with its more of the same old, same old only time will tell but just the fact that we are now beginning to see divergence from run to run and from model to model gives me hope that a pattern change may be sooner rather then later.

[mdsnowlover]

33 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I put my trust  in Joe Bastardi. Lots of snow and  cold to come.

dont holdyour breath on that  lol!!!!

[showmethesnow]

Here is a comparison of the GEFS and the EPS. Note the differences in the polar regions. The EPS shows day 10 because I can not use Euro images from weatherbell and tropicaltidbits only goes to day 10. But it is very similar to day 15 except for the fact that the low height anomalies are more intense through the polar regions.

 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

After spending the last week watching the models run lock step with each other run after run we may now be seeing hints of a possible pattern reshuffle. Looking at the various runs over the last couple of days the models are now diverging somewhat on a key feature that would have implications down the road. Looking at the 500's the GEFS has steadily moved towards intensifying higher heights over the polar regions with what looks to be attempts to bridge an Aleutian ridge with an Western Europe ridge. On the other hand the EPS has steadily increased the low height anomalies in this region presenting a strong PV feature over the polar regions. The CMC for the most part leans fairly heavily towards the GEFS at this time. Now whether the GEFS is right with possible changes in the polar region at this time or the EPS with its more of the same old, same old only time will tell but just the fact that we are now beginning to see divergence from run to run and from model to model gives me hope that a pattern change may be sooner rather then later.

The gfs is showing the way out. Either higher heights into Greenland or Alaska or better connect the two. That how we probably finally kick out. But the gfs is probably too fast as usual.  It's saying right after New Years. I would be thrilled at this point if it's a week fast and the pattern breaks down by the second week of January. 

[Wonderdog]

Probably the reason the GFS is showing a possible coastal storm developing at the end of the run.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

I put my trust  in Joe Bastardi. Lots of snow and  cold to come.

-0.5F departures are "lots of cold" for us, and we barely get any snow, so pretty much any snowfall will be "lots."

[showmethesnow]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The gfs is showing the way out. Either higher heights into Greenland or Alaska or better connect the two. That how we probably finally kick out. But the gfs is probably too fast as usual.  It's saying right after New Years. I would be thrilled at this point if it's a week fast and the pattern breaks down by the second week of January. 

Here are my thoughts for what ever they are worth.

Not going back to double check but if I remember correctly all 3 models a week, week and a half ago were showing height increases through the polar regions with attempts to bridge ridging from Alaska to Europe. If that is the case then we may have already seen the 'to fast' from the GEFS. Also looking over the previous runs these higher heights seem to be moving forward in time as well as intensifying which in my mind is a good sign. Though my understanding of the PV at 10mb through 50mb and it's interaction with 500 mb and on down is limited, to say the least, I do wonder if it may also be suggesting the possibility of heights building. With the elongated feature @ 10mb-50mb it has been showing through this time frame you have to wonder if this is allowing a weakness underneath through its mid-section for heights to build at 500mb. Maybe someone else with more knowledge can chime in on whether my thoughts on that have any merit. The fact that the CMC backs the GEFS somewhat is also a plus. I guess we will have a better idea in the next day or two, with more model runs under our belt, whether this has any legs or not.

The best thing about this though, is it gives me something to track besides post cold front flurries.  

[Bob Chill]

This would be an acceptable pattern change. 

 

[PaEasternWX]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This would be an acceptable pattern change. 

 

If only.. but we know what happens to long range -NAO. It ends up being neutral to slightly negative at best.

[frd]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This would be an acceptable pattern change. 

 

 

I believe it was just yesterday, that Isotherm stated he felt  that the long term cycle of the positive NAO would start to change early in January. 

Makes you wonder as well about the QBO and what that is up to , have not checked lately. 

 

 

 

[mdsnowlover]

to frd go back and read cohen post here about qbo and its affect on polar vortex, its very intersing and will answer your question

[Eskimo Joe]

22 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

If only.. but we know what happens to long range -NAO. It ends up being neutral to slightly negative at best.

If be okay with a slightly negative NAO if the Pacific was setup decent.

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If be okay with a slightly negative NAO if the Pacific was setup decent.

Agree. Perfect patterns are great and all but about as rare as the redskins stopping people on 3rd down. The ugliness were seeing is a combo of things that are stacked far the wrong way. Ease up a little here and there and we can at least start talking about winter again. 

Interesting looking at the height plots with the 6z gefs. Not many have a raging +NAO at all. A lot of ridging poking into the NAO space as well. Also, more members have a ridge in the west vs a trough. I'm sure this is all too much too fast but getting glimpses of a way out is better than door to door misery. 

 

[Bob Chill]

Well, after looking at the mjo plots it makes sense that the gefs is showing a way out. Unfortunately the gefs is on it's own with this mjo forecast:

 

[frd]

25 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

to frd go back and read cohen post here about qbo and its affect on polar vortex, its very intersing and will answer your question

Yeah, I actually read it yesterday and posted on his AO update,  but what I was referring to were some thoughts from some weather blogs I had skimmed the last few weeks,  that the QBO might be transitioning again. ( from W to E ) 

I have not looked into that though in detai, so not sure if that is correct or not l. I do know that a Easterly QBO is more conducive to a negative NAO, and as Cohen points out also SSW events in mid winter.

But, thanks, I appreciate your feedback.  

I know a lot is going on like wave breaking events I am looking forward to seeing what happens, that makes weather so fascinating . 

  

[frd]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Well, after looking at the mjo plots it makes sense that the gefs is showing a way out. Unfortunately the gefs is on it's own with this mjo forecast:

 

 

DT did mentioned in this very thing in his, This Week in Weather video,  that the MJO going to phase 1 as portrayed by the GFS , and how it stands alone, like you mentioned here Bob.

But , he also mentioned an experimental model that also is forecasting  a MJO move into phase 1 and then 2 I believe.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

59 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This would be an acceptable pattern change. 

 

I suppose it's appropriate the height anomaly looks like a heart because I "love" the N Atl Ridging that is depicted here! We can dream anyway....better than, as someone else mentioned, tracking fropa flurries.

[yoda]

Well, at least hr 384 of the 06z GFS is probably going to show a monster nor'easter... we can only hope it stays there for the next 30 some runs

[pasnownut]

19 minutes ago, yoda said:

Well, at least hr 384 of the 06z GFS is probably going to show a monster nor'easter... we can only hope it stays there for the next 30 some runs

if its on the 12z, can we call it a trend....

Nut

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

This would be an acceptable pattern change. 

 

Bob you are the master of understatements lol

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I suppose it's appropriate the height anomaly looks like a heart because I "love" the N Atl Ridging that is depicted here! We can dream anyway....better than, as someone else mentioned, tracking fropa flurries.

I thought the same exact thing when I saw it, the heart must indicate my level of approval of this look.  (yes I know its still fiction range and not much support YET)

[CAPE]

What have we all learned about a NA block when it shows up in LR guidance