December Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[mdsnowlover]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

INTERIOR!

Whatever happened to that chance for something presented here on 288 GFS ensembles

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Getting upset I see. Listen there are people in your area that live in the interior also. You mention HM but I guess you are not interested what he is saying.

Nope. Not upset at all. Weather is going to be boring for a long time so I'm having fun at your expense now. I'm very interested in what HM says. But I'm completely not interested in what you say. And I can speak for everyone in this sub including those in the INTERIOR

[WEATHERBUFF]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Nope. Not upset at all. Weather is going to be boring for a long time so I'm having fun at your expense now. I'm very interested in what HM says. But I'm completely not interested in what you say. And I can speak for everyone in this sub including those in the INTERIOR

I don't care what you think, but people in West Va and western Md understand the point. I love to hear you complain...lol!

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

1993-94 winter had a +NAO also and look how this turned out!

93/94 is NOT at all a good analog for this pattern.  There are more factors then just the NAO.  The trough position was much further east in 94 then what we are looking at.  There were some similarities to the pattern the last couple weeks and 93/94 but not much with the pattern we are heading into.  I am not wasting my time but you can go look at the H5 maps from january and february 94 and see the differences for yourself.  And since you might care about this, the pattern we are heading into will NOT be good for carbondale.  You are not far enough north or west.  Yes you may get a little bit more snow then places like NYC or DC but your average is WAY higher, so if we are heading into February and you have 10" and DC has 2" you are actually doing worse with regards to average.  This pattern is great for the interior if you mean interior quebec.  For PA this sucks to relative to average.  if the major h5 features happen as advertised 90% of your precip is going to be rain.

[WEATHERBUFF]

Anyway I just like many are looking forward to the new year coming up and a new pattern!

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

I don't care what you think, but people in West Va and western Md understand the point. I love to hear you complain...lol!

We all agree that you're a terrible poster. That's the point. 

[Ji]

dont worry guys. We will be tracking a pattern change come mid January leading up to a 35 inch blizzard. Its how we do winters now

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Do you really think anyone here gives a rats ass about NYC, up north, INTERIOR, or carbondale? I mean seriously dude. Why are you even here? What value to you bring? Your posts are about as useful as getting lice in ball hair. 

He was just trolling in the NYC forum earlier telling them how its not gonna snow on the coast but...GUESS WHO will do well

[pasnownut]

38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I totally understand Iso. I've been at this long enough to know when there's trouble in the kitchen. I also understand that the strat-trop relationship is far from 1:1. Blocking in the trop comes in many forms too. 13-14/14-15 look pretty tame on the means irt the AO/NAO but the h5 plots show a different story when things were going well. The -epo/scand ridge connection is a form of blocking that can be very favorable for the east when it has enough oomph to suppress the trop PV to HB or even further south. The mid latitude response is very conducive for cold outbreaks in the east. Storm track hinges on the ever moving baroclinic zone though. Landing on the right side (or better known as the left side..lol)  this far south requires a great deal of good fortune. It's not like that type of long wave pattern is always friendly. In fact, I would say it is hostile for snow in our region (ala 93/94) but with enough amplification we can end up on the right side of things from time to time. 

The current state and forecast of the AO is pretty troubling going off of past history. The cases of a Dec AO @ +1.5 or more shows the resilience of the pattern in stark fashion. The cases do show that high latitude blocking can develop but it is rarely long lived and the good periods are buried underneath a hostile monthly mean. The base state (when anomalous) in December is probably one of the more reliable forecasting tools as far as I can tell. Regardless of the behavior of the strat or any other pattern driver like the MJO/enso/whatever, when December has an anomalous baseline state of the AO you can pretty much forecast that state to continue well into Jan and to a lesser extent Feb and have a very high forecast success rate. 

As we both know, whenever the strat and mjo become talking points in the winter during a crap period it means that we are in deep doo doo for a while and the way out is not easy nor is it likely. lol

 

 

I'm not trying to waste anyones time.  Hope it didnt come off that way, but I think many of us amateurs find times like this as an oportunity to look deeper for answers as to what is driving all indicies into the meteorological crapper.

at least the AO isnt looking horrid long term.  Maybe it can help to save the day.  

Nut

 

[mdsnowlover]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We all agree that you're a terrible poster. That's the point. 

bob you should be a mod!!

[WEATHERBUFF]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

93/94 is NOT at all a good analog for this pattern.  There are more factors then just the NAO.  The trough position was much further east in 94 then what we are looking at.  There were some similarities to the pattern the last couple weeks and 93/94 but not much with the pattern we are heading into.  I am not wasting my time but you can go look at the H5 maps from january and february 94 and see the differences for yourself.  And since you might care about this, the pattern we are heading into will NOT be good for carbondale.  You are not far enough north or west.  Yes you may get a little bit more snow then places like NYC or DC but your average is WAY higher, so if we are heading into February and you have 10" and DC has 2" you are actually doing worse with regards to average.  This pattern is great for the interior if you mean interior quebec.  For PA this sucks to relative to average.  if the major h5 features happen as advertised 90% of your precip is going to be rain.

We already have over 25 inches of snow already. I think 84-85 may be a good analog what JB said.

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Getting upset I see. Listen there are people in your area that live in the interior also. You mention HM but I guess you are not interested what he is saying.

for the last time unless you live in interior canada this pattern is going to suck.  You are NOT going to do well in snow in Carbondale, or the Poconos, or anywhere else in the east south of New England in this pattern.  It is NOT a good pattern for you.  And people are not stupid.  They know you are trolling.  You go into every forum and repeat the same crap and message that you know they don't want to hear. 

[WEATHERBUFF]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

He was just trolling in the NYC forum earlier telling them how its not gonna snow on the coast but...GUESS WHO will do well

I believe you were on there trolling also and NJ Zucker did correct when of your statements about the interior.

[Ji]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

for the last time unless you live in interior canada this pattern is going to suck.  You are NOT going to do well in snow in Carbondale, or the Poconos, or anywhere else in the east south of New England in this pattern.  It is NOT a good pattern for you.  And people are not stupid.  They know you are trolling.  You go into every forum and repeat the same crap and message that you know they don't want to hear. 

in a bad pattern...nobody gets snow. When i was single in 2001-02, i had the freedom to drive anywhere to go chase now and i literally couldnt find anywhere to drive until i got desperate in mid march and drove to corning NY lol

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

I don't care what you think, but people in West Va and western Md understand the point. I love to hear you complain...lol!

I don't see anyone in western MD or WV stupid enough to think a raging +NAO ,AO, EPO, and -PDO with a huge SE ridge is going to be good for their snowpack.  Forget the fact your just trolling, your not even accurate in your nonsense that the interior will get snow in the pattern.  I spend several years in the poconos and I am familiar with their climo, this is an equally awful pattern for them. 

[WEATHERBUFF]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We all agree that you're a terrible poster. That's the point. 

I just look at weather as a hobby and most of the pros are saying it will get better by mid January or so.

[WEATHERBUFF]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't see anyone in western MD or WV stupid enough to think a raging +NAO ,AO, EPO, and -PDO with a huge SE ridge is going to be good for their snowpack.  Forget the fact your just trolling, your not even accurate in your nonsense that the interior will get snow in the pattern.  I spend several years in the poconos and I am familiar with their climo, this is an equally awful pattern for them. 

I did not say they would do  too well in this pattern, probably mixing or icing will be the case. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

We already have over 25 inches of snow already. I think 84-85 may be a good analog what JB said.

You average about 55" and DC averages about 15.  DC can get two snowstorms in February and end up average.  You need way more consistent snowfall throught the winter.  You are doing well but if you go the next month without much snow (very possible in this pattern) you will be in just as much trouble  We were in a patter that was pretty good for your snowfall the last few weeks, as I said above, but we are heading into one that will be bad for you.  In the pattern we are going into DC will have a better chance then you to come out of it above average for that time period, because they could get one fluke 5" snowstorm in the next 3 weeks and that would put them above avg for that 3 week period where there is almost no way you are going to get the snowfall you would need to be above average for the same time period.  This pattern might be worse for you then here in the end. 

[WEATHERBUFF]

Not true we average between 65 and 70 per year and Montrose and Pleasant Mt over 80 inches per year. I agree the pattern is not good, but most believe it will change in a couple of weeks or by mid January. WE usually get more consistent snow up here and even last year we did not get shut out for weeks at a time. Last year was horrible for we got less than 30 inches of snow for the year, maybe the lowest ever. We do get alot more snowfall than Scranton measured at the AVP area airport.

[SnowGoose69]

The other thing about SSW events is that if they do reach the troposphere they don't necessarily always impact North America.  There is a tendency overall for them to USUALLY impact this side of the pole for some reason.  I believe that has something to do with the fact there is more landmass vs water compared to the Europe side.  January 2012 was an example of an SSW that impacted Europe and not here. We've also seen cases where they impact the central or western US and not the East.  I think February 89 which I recently brought up was an example of that. The East did get some big snow events in the MA region but they were nowhere near as cold as the Midwest and Plains were. 

[H2O]

there will be a lot less WEATHERBUTT posts soon.  At least ones you have to read.  So let's not bother to reply to him anymore to make mods jobs easier.

[WEATHERBUFF]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

there will be a lot less WEATHERBUTT posts soon.  At least ones you have to read.

Very smart comment wimpy H20. I don't want to post in this forum it is very negative to say the least.

[H2O]

1 minute ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Very smart comment wimpy H20. I don't want to post in this forum it is very negative to say the least.

then stop.  Save us all the trouble.  And from here on out you can expect to see a lot less of your trolling no matter how subtle you think it is.

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Very smart comment wimpy H20. I don't want to post in this forum it is very negative to say the least.

Ok, let me help you out with that.  Byeee

[stormtracker]

Just now, WEATHERBUFF said:

I'm not posting here anymore,thanks!

 

Trust me, I know, because you won't be able to. 

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

I believe you were on there trolling also and NJ Zucker did correct when of your statements about the interior.

If making the factual statement that this pattern is awful for the interior of their forum is trolling then fine, but regardless of what Zucker or anyone else says your not going to do well in snow if that is accurate.  I lived up near you for several years, I went to Penn State, I know PA climo, and I know exactly where you are, and you should not be happy with what is coming.  If you think the map below is a good look for you your stupid.  Unfortunately I can't fix stupid. 

[mdsnowlover]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If making the factual statement that this pattern is awful for the interior of their forum is trolling then fine, but regardless of what Zucker or anyone else says your not going to do well in snow if that is accurate.  I lived up near you for several years, I went to Penn State, I know PA climo, and I know exactly where you are, and you should not be happy with what is coming.  If you think the map below is a good look for you your stupid.  Unfortunately I can't fix stupid. 

amazing of what MJO can do to synoptic features in atmosphere.!!

[EastCoast NPZ]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If making the factual statement that this pattern is awful for the interior of their forum is trolling then fine, but regardless of what Zucker or anyone else says your not going to do well in snow if that is accurate.  I lived up near you for several years, I went to Penn State, I know PA climo, and I know exactly where you are, and you should not be happy with what is coming.  If you think the map below is a good look for you your stupid.  Unfortunately I can't fix stupid. 

I could see that advertised pattern leading to some mixing issues in the interior......

Lots of upper 40s and 50s mixed with some 60s down this way..

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Not true we average between 65 and 70 per year and Montrose and Pleasant Mt over 80 inches per year. I agree the pattern is not good, but most believe it will change in a couple of weeks or by mid January. WE usually get more consistent snow up here and even last year we did not get shut out for weeks at a time. Last year was horrible for we got less than 30 inches of snow for the year, maybe the lowest ever. We do get alot more snowfall than Scranton measured at the AVP area airport.

First of all you are exaggerating your snowfall since Elk Mountain, about 1000 feet higher up and north of you averages 60" according to the ski resort, and ski resorts usually are liberal with snowfall totals.  AVP which is just south of you and about  800 feet lower averages 46.2 and you do get significantly more snow for a location that close but NOT that much more and certainly not more then a location just to your north and higher up.  Don't assume no one down here knows your climo.  And you are working against your own argument, the higher your average snowfall the more my point that your not going to do well compared to average is correct.  I know following that kind of logic might be difficult for you but try to keep up. 

[Kmlwx]

4 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

The annoying thing is if someone is banned they can always make another account I'm fairly sure. 

That's what IP bans are for -  unless his ISP uses dynamic IP addresses or if he uses a VPN. 

Regardless - back on topic...I'm pretty icky on this pattern as many others have stated. But December has never really been a regular success of our area. We'll wait and see if things look better as we get deeper into the winter.