December Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I refuse to get upset or excited about long-range guidance when it's been proven to be of little useful value in general in terms of daily weather. It provides something to discuss, but that's about it.

Probably for the best. Short-Med range is going to provide plenty of punishment for snow lovers for a while.

[mdsnowlover]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Probably for the best. Short-Med range is going to provide plenty of punishment for snow lovers for a while.

man you got that right!!!

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Can't recall ever seeing such agreement @15 days for such an extended period of time as we have seen between the EPS, GFS and the CMC for a week or so now. Normally you would see the models vary a little as they occasionally would key on something a little different. The only thing I can take away from that is we have entered a very stable pattern that will be very hard to get out of. Hope I am wrong but fear that I am may be right.

I can but its not going to make us feel better. Last December the models were equally locked in on how awful things were going to be.  Back in 2012 as well. I also remember around January 25th or so in 2010 when people were kinda down because our great December storm had long melted and January had been pretty tame, looking at the blocking showing up on all the guidance and telling my brother when I was crashing for the weekend, man look out things could get wild soon. Then a few weeks later I looked like Nostradamus in my family. Also in January 2014, yea it wasn't the typical nao way to do it, but the guidance was pretty universal in advertising the coming pacific dominated snow onslaught for the mid Atlantic north for late Jan through feb. I still have some of the crazy runs showing just rediculous snow totals on the ensembles and weeklies stuff saved. Nao is important but there are like 4-5 significant pattern drivers and if we get 4/5 lined up in our favor we can do without the nao. Not saying it's unimportant, without it you better get everything else lined up to compensate but that year and 2003 are examples of how to win without  nao help.  

But the common denominator is all of those patterns locked in as advertised and were stable for a long time. Usually when you see a lack of variability in guidance it means there is a very dominant driver to the pattern and the models are picking up on it well. There isn't some big battle among the drivers behind the pattern that the models are struggling to identify.  I know some wisely don't trust long range stuff and it could be wrong again, but as bob said when it's all lock step showing the same exact thing run after run unfortunately the pattern is probably easy for them to pick up on and they have it identified.  

I think like Bob, I am going to pull back and post very sporadically until there are any positive signs of change. I've made my point clear on how disgusted I am with what we're looking at and I'm not trying to just echo that and frustrate or depress people everyday. When I think things look better I'll say so.  Until then the people that are being optimistic God bless them. I don't want to kill anyone's hope and positive attitude. I just have less faith in what I'm seeing. But I truly hope everyone has a wonderful holiday, whichever you celebrate, regardless of what may or may not be falling from the sky. 

[PhineasC]

LOL we always punt this period. We have for years. Second and third week or January will be when things start to appear again. I'm not sure if it is global warming or just a long-term pattern we are in, but our winters are now backloaded for late January through late March and that's just the way it is.

[showmethesnow]

26 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL we always punt this period. We have for years. Second and third week or January will be when things start to appear again. I'm not sure if it is global warming or just a long-term pattern we are in, but our winters are now backloaded for late January through late March and that's just the way it is.

Growing up in the region since the late 60's I never had the feeling that December was really a big winter month. So any snow was a bonus. March, especially early, always seemed to be better. So losing December never really bothered me too much. But when we start losing big chunks of Jan though, that's another story. 

[CAPE]

31 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL we always punt this period. We have for years. Second and third week or January will be when things start to appear again. I'm not sure if it is global warming or just a long-term pattern we are in, but our winters are now backloaded for late January through late March and that's just the way it is.

We can all hope that trend continues. I guess the "conventional" thinking was that with a weakish la nina, our best chance was going to be the first part of the winter, which as we all know is not our wheelhouse. When the guidance looks bleak, its best to just go with climo- most of our winter weather occurs from mid Jan through late Feb, and lately early March. It may completely fail this winter, but that is just how we roll.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Growing up in the region since the late 60's I never had the feeling that December was really a big winter month. So any snow was a bonus. March, especially early, always seemed to be better. So losing December never really bothered me too much. But when we start losing big chunks of Jan though, that's another story. 

Lets just wait and see on Jan. The Euro weeklies, fwiw, showed some promise beginning around mid month. Maybe we can get a 2-3 week period where the pattern is more favorable and we can get our shots. We are probably over due for a sub par  snowfall year, and I went in fully prepared for that possibility. Just hope its not a complete fail.

[showmethesnow]

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I can but its not going to make us feel better. Last December the models were equally locked in on how awful things were going to be.  Back in 2012 as well. I also remember around January 25th or so in 2010 when people were kinda down because our great December storm had long melted and January had been pretty tame, looking at the blocking showing up on all the guidance and telling my brother when I was crashing for the weekend, man look out things could get wild soon. Then a few weeks later I looked like Nostradamus in my family. Also in January 2014, yea it wasn't the typical nao way to do it, but the guidance was pretty universal in advertising the coming pacific dominated snow onslaught for the mid Atlantic north for late Jan through feb. I still have some of the crazy runs showing just rediculous snow totals on the ensembles and weeklies stuff saved. Nao is important but there are like 4-5 significant pattern drivers and if we get 4/5 lined up in our favor we can do without the nao. Not saying it's unimportant, without it you better get everything else lined up to compensate but that year and 2003 are examples of how to win without  nao help.  

But the common denominator is all of those patterns locked in as advertised and were stable for a long time. Usually when you see a lack of variability in guidance it means there is a very dominant driver to the pattern and the models are picking up on it well. There isn't some big battle among the drivers behind the pattern that the models are struggling to identify.  I know some wisely don't trust long range stuff and it could be wrong again, but as bob said when it's all lock step showing the same exact thing run after run unfortunately the pattern is probably easy for them to pick up on and they have it identified.  

I think like Bob, I am going to pull back and post very sporadically until there are any positive signs of change. I've made my point clear on how disgusted I am with what we're looking at and I'm not trying to just echo that and frustrate or depress people everyday. When I think things look better I'll say so.  Until then the people that are being optimistic God bless them. I don't want to kill anyone's hope and positive attitude. I just have less faith in what I'm seeing. But I truly hope everyone has a wonderful holiday, whichever you celebrate, regardless of what may or may not be falling from the sky. 

Happy Holidays as well. 

I'll take your word on last December being similar as well. Spent November and December in and out of the hospital with my mother and then January trying to get her affairs in order after she passed away. So for the most part the whole winter was a blur with very little time to follow the models. But I am still amazed at the consistency we have been seeing from the different models and from run to run. Funny you mention 2010 though. Didn't that have a long stretch of consistent horrid runs and then within a day or so all the models did a 180 like a switch was flipped?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I can but its not going to make us feel better. Last December the models were equally locked in on how awful things were going to be.  Back in 2012 as well. I also remember around January 25th or so in 2010 when people were kinda down because our great December storm had long melted and January had been pretty tame, looking at the blocking showing up on all the guidance and telling my brother when I was crashing for the weekend, man look out things could get wild soon. Then a few weeks later I looked like Nostradamus in my family. Also in January 2014, yea it wasn't the typical nao way to do it, but the guidance was pretty universal in advertising the coming pacific dominated snow onslaught for the mid Atlantic north for late Jan through feb. I still have some of the crazy runs showing just rediculous snow totals on the ensembles and weeklies stuff saved. Nao is important but there are like 4-5 significant pattern drivers and if we get 4/5 lined up in our favor we can do without the nao. Not saying it's unimportant, without it you better get everything else lined up to compensate but that year and 2003 are examples of how to win without  nao help.  

But the common denominator is all of those patterns locked in as advertised and were stable for a long time. Usually when you see a lack of variability in guidance it means there is a very dominant driver to the pattern and the models are picking up on it well. There isn't some big battle among the drivers behind the pattern that the models are struggling to identify.  I know some wisely don't trust long range stuff and it could be wrong again, but as bob said when it's all lock step showing the same exact thing run after run unfortunately the pattern is probably easy for them to pick up on and they have it identified.  

I think like Bob, I am going to pull back and post very sporadically until there are any positive signs of change. I've made my point clear on how disgusted I am with what we're looking at and I'm not trying to just echo that and frustrate or depress people everyday. When I think things look better I'll say so.  Until then the people that are being optimistic God bless them. I don't want to kill anyone's hope and positive attitude. I just have less faith in what I'm seeing. But I truly hope everyone has a wonderful holiday, whichever you celebrate, regardless of what may or may not be falling from the sky. 

Well said!  Both you and Bob in particular have described just what's staring at us, and I've seen the same thing in the longer range ensembles.  It's ugly, and no way to put lipstick on that pig.  So time for a long "nap" from winter I guess, maybe checking in sporadically just to see if there's anything positive on the horizon.  Hopefully we can score something, get a couple of good periods before this winter is totally done.  No point in tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth I suppose.

It's depressing, sure, but it's also the holidays right now at least.  I'll find January 20 to be far, far more depressing to be honest, and not for weather-related reasons, haha! 

[PaEasternWX]

Don't worry just like last winter we will get a fluke storm that takes us all above climo. 

[yoda]

Blinds closed till January

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Happy Holidays as well. 

I'll take your word on last December being similar as well. Spent November and December in and out of the hospital with my mother and then January trying to get her affairs in order after she passed away. So for the most part the whole winter was a blur with very little time to follow the models. But I am still amazed at the consistency we have been seeing from the different models and from run to run. Funny you mention 2010 though. Didn't that have a long stretch of consistent horrid runs and then within a day or so all the models did a 180 like a switch was flipped?

So sorry about your mom. It's a while ago but I clearly remember on Eastern and especially with my old psu weather crazy friends arguing late January that the pattern looked great regardless of the fact that the op runs looked kinda ehh. The specific day of despair I remember was a week before the Jan 30 CRAS storm when the models shifted way south with it and then despite great blocking were trying to warm things up and showed the eventual feb 5 Snowmageddon as a cutter. I was lobbying that given the pattern it would be fine and I would rather models show a cutter in that pattern then a fantasy snow with a crap pattern. The specifics were all wrong but I thought the models nailed the general pattern. I remember feeling very confident in early feb from a long ways out. 

[Isotherm]

I posted my thoughts on the pattern in New England thread, but relevant here too.

 

Things are pretty much going as planned on the NAO/AO fronts thus far from my point of view. Precursor signals I examined were suggestive of a hostile to very hostile NAO and neutral to positive AO in the means. Certainly, not looking good for Dr. Cohen's SAI right now, although it is still early. 

Going forward, we see rapid intensification of 10hpa zonal winds with contemporaneous cooling of temperatures to record/near record levels in the upper levels of the stratosphere. This all implicates a tight / symmetrical vortex, almost insurmountably strong like last winter. However, there should be some wave-2 attacks down the road (2-3 weeks), but I don't think they'll be sufficiently potent to induce anything more than perturbation / elongation. Pacific chi 200hpa will largely remain unfavorable for high latitude blocking as well. We may achieve interludes of dateline poleward ridging, but I'm skeptical those interludes will be quite protracted. Will have to monitor potential rossby trains and wave breaks. We will enter a largely low AAM regime which is also generally unfavorable for wave-1/2 amplification on the Pacific side. Right now, in the near term, the best opportunity for a pattern shake-up is likely contingent upon MJO/forcing progression. In the longer term, the stratosphere will likely be the primary determinant of significant NAM alterations [which, at this juncture, I'm not optimistic about, given precursor and current background conditions).  

I actually think Feb might hold better potential for the coast than Jan insofar as -NAO potential. If we can achieve a stratospheric shake-up, it would typically begin to occur in early February if this year paralleled its analogs in terms of vortex strength (at the same time, I wouldn't be surprised if the AO/NAO remained positive through the entire winter). Strongly positive NAO/AO's in late December tend to persist in the means for January. As I said, interior New England can still do fine, but I'm focusing my discussion mostly for the I-95 corridor. With the Pacific as is, we'd need Arctic/Atl cooperation in some form. A more eastward displaced poleward Pacific ridge can work w/o the Atlantic, but the chances of that occurring are rather low in my opinion.

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

I posted my thoughts on the pattern in New England thread, but relevant here too.

 

Things are pretty much going as planned on the NAO/AO fronts thus far from my point of view. Precursor signals I examined were suggestive of a hostile to very hostile NAO and neutral to positive AO in the means. Certainly, not looking good for Dr. Cohen's SAI right now, although it is still early. 

Going forward, we see rapid intensification of 10hpa zonal winds with contemporaneous cooling of temperatures to record/near record levels in the upper levels of the stratosphere. This all implicates a tight / symmetrical vortex, almost insurmountably strong like last winter. However, there should be some wave-2 attacks down the road (2-3 weeks), but I don't think they'll be sufficiently potent to induce anything more than perturbation / elongation. Pacific chi 200hpa will largely remain unfavorable for high latitude blocking as well. We may achieve interludes of dateline poleward ridging, but I'm skeptical those interludes will be quite protracted. Will have to monitor potential rossby trains and wave breaks. We will enter a largely low AAM regime which is also generally unfavorable for wave-1/2 amplification on the Pacific side. Right now, in the near term, the best opportunity for a pattern shake-up is likely contingent upon MJO/forcing progression. In the longer term, the stratosphere will likely be the primary determinant of significant NAM alterations [which, at this juncture, I'm not optimistic about, given precursor and current background conditions).  

I actually think Feb might hold better potential for the coast than Jan insofar as -NAO potential. If we can achieve a stratospheric shake-up, it would typically begin to occur in early February if this year paralleled its analogs in terms of vortex strength (at the same time, I wouldn't be surprised if the AO/NAO remained positive through the entire winter). Strongly positive NAO/AO's in late December tend to persist in the means for January. As I said, interior New England can still do fine, but I'm focusing my discussion mostly for the I-95 corridor. With the Pacific as is, we'd need Arctic/Atl cooperation in some form. A more eastward displaced poleward Pacific ridge can work w/o the Atlantic, but the chances of that occurring are rather low in my opinion.

I'm curious what we're the analog years you used? 

[Isotherm]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm curious what we're the analog years you used? 

 

For the winter forecast as a whole? I had 1973-74 as a primary analog with 75-76 and 99-00 as secondary/tertiary, and some notable similarities to 2011-12. If you were referring to my comment regarding vortex strength, the years which featured weak / very weak autumn vortices w/ subsequent rapid intensification in December tended to reach peak intensity in early January, followed by rapid weakening (on average of course) in the first half of February.

[Bob Chill]

For those of you including me that doesn't fully grasp what Isotherm just said I'll make it much easier. He said we're totally fooked for a while and one of the few things that might break things in our favor is the fabled attack on the stratosphere that may or may not happen and even if it does it might not do anything or if successful it might be too late to save our region. 

[mdsnowlover]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

For those of you including me that doesn't fully grasp what Isotherm just said I'll make it much easier. He said we're totally fooked for a while and one of the few things that might break things in our favor is the fabled attack on the stratosphere that may or may not happen and even if it does it might not do anything or if successful it might be too late to save our region. 

figures, tyvm lol!!

[mdsnowlover]

btw for anyone interested JB in twitter now saying analogue year of 84-85 now taking over, with ridge in east till at least jan 10, or winter relaxing for about a month. then artic outbreak returning. In short he really dpesnt know what is going to happen, uses ukmet, of all models, to back his/their reasoning. All his videos have stressed dec, not going further into winter.

[mdsnowlover]

from anthony maiesllo met  (How the hell do you move,dislodge a feature of this massive size??) this was supposed to be a video!!

This is like the biggest +NAO I've ever seen (not objective d

 

 

[Superstorm]

I'd rather see a back loaded winter.

You get bigger snowstorms without the brutal cold.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Superstorm]

I'd rather see a back loaded winter.

You get bigger snowstorms without the brutal cold.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[mdsnowlover]

 according to 2 mets-DT and JB- mjo will be in phase 7-8 which apparently spells artic air-pattern change, starting mid jan

[pasnownut]

9 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

sorry but according to 2 mets-DT and JB- mjo will be in phase 7-8 which apparently spells artic air-pattern change, starting mid jan

7-8-1 are good for cold....but 2 weeks ago we thought things would look good at this time.  I wouldnt discount either of them, but we've surely struggled w/ sustained cold, (step back to progs for -NAO that was being shown a few weeks back).  As suggested earlier (and shown by HM), we've got to find a way to peturb/dislodge that beast of a PV, or we'll likely see small windows....not big ones.

Nut

 

[poolz1]

I probably should not even discuss the strat because my understanding of its effect on sensible weather are about as basic as it gets but...One thing that I don't understand is the lag time of it's effects.  

Currently, the PV is split at 50hpa and is stretched at 10hpa.  When we are going from a cold/strong phase to a warmed/weak phase the lag time for its effects are 2-4 weeks (from what i understand).  Yet, the PV is now just now starting its recovery and it seems the effects are almost instant.  By day 10 recovery is complete and the patten at day 10 looks like what you would expect from a cold, wrapped PV.  There seems to be another driver working against us here....MJO?  

Believe me, as a diehard weather enthusiast , I completely get the idea that if you have to hang your hat on a warming strat,  winter is most likely out of reach.  But, this discussion seems to be repeated yearly on this forum and somehow we have exceeded climo regardless. 

If I am off base or not making any sense with these questions just tell me to go back to looking at snow maps...lol  Just trying to learn in what is a very boring time.

[mdsnowlover]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

7-8-1 are good for cold....but 2 weeks ago we thought things would look good at this time.  I wouldnt discount either of them, but we've surely struggled w/ sustained cold, (step back to progs for -NAO that was being shown a few weeks back).  As suggested earlier (and shown by HM), we've got to find a way to peturb/dislodge that beast of a PV, or we'll likely see small windows....not big ones.

Nut

 

youre right on the mark nut, JB made no mention of a big warm up in any video up to this point, and now admits to it till at least mid jan, DT has a new video on facebook and does a very good job explaining things. The knowledgable guns here have stated that we're in a stable pattern that lacks sustained cold air and cutter track.WE have 3 weeks of warm weather to go thru. Enjoy a warm xmas.

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, mdsnowlover said:

youre right on the mark nut, JB made no mention of a big warm up in any video up to this point, and now admits to it till at least mid jan, DT has a new video on facebook and does a very good job explaining things. The knowledgable guns here have stated that we're in a stable pattern that lacks sustained cold air and cutter track.WE have 3 weeks of warm weather to go thru. Enjoy a warm xmas.

I'm a scrooge when christmas is warm.  No two ways about it.

I'll enjoy being w/ family...and being off work :).  

would love to be trackin though.....

maybe by next week, some signs of hope emerge....but maybe not.  

be well,

Nut

 

[mdsnowlover]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

I'm a scrooge when christmas is warm.  No two ways about it.

I'll enjoy being w/ family...and being off work :).  

would love to be trackin though.....

maybe by next week, some signs of hope emerge....but maybe not.  

be well,

Nut

 

blessings and peace to you and your family this holiday season, hibernation till jan,

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I probably should not even discuss the strat because my understanding of its effect on sensible weather are about as basic as it gets but...One thing that I don't understand is the lag time of it's effects.  

Currently, the PV is split at 50hpa and is stretched at 10hpa.  When we are going from a cold/strong phase to a warmed/weak phase the lag time for its effects are 2-4 weeks (from what i understand).  Yet, the PV is now just now starting its recovery and it seems the effects are almost instant.  By day 10 recovery is complete and the patten at day 10 looks like what you would expect from a cold, wrapped PV.  There seems to be another driver working against us here....MJO?  

Believe me, as a diehard weather enthusiast , I completely get the idea that if you have to hang your hat on a warming strat,  winter is most likely out of reach.  But, this discussion seems to be repeated yearly on this forum and somehow we have exceeded climo regardless. 

If I am off base or not making any sense with these questions just tell me to go back to looking at snow maps...lol  Just trying to learn in what is a very boring time.

yes, you are correct SSW events typically have a +/- 30-45 day lag from occurrence to downwelling and being seen in our sensible weather.  IT surely makes one wonder how the we seem to "snap back" to warmer so easily.  Something to think about.

Nut

 

[midatlanticweather]

DT explains the horrible pattern very well. 

 

[mdsnowlover]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

DT explains the horrible pattern very well. 

 

yes he explains the main driver as stage of MJO, something JB omitts, and dont know what Martino of njnypaweather thinks.