PhineasC Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 LOL Larry Cosgrove. Did he outline the storm chances for a bunch of obscure towns and villages rather than use locales anyone has actually heard of? "Best chance of snow north of a line from Toughkenamon, PA, to Brogue, PA, to Moundsville, WV." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 LC pretty much confirmed the "nothing good about anything" in his latest long range update this morning. If you are a follower of his, to summarize: Rule of the day in EC is mild side straight through end of Jan (albeit with very brief transient cold intrusions from western troughs), with limited precip chances excepting for rain possibilities last week of Jan. Hopefully the pattern breaks by early or mid Feb and we can salvage what's left of winter 2017.Bastardi essentially right in line with LC's thinking but suggests a complete pattern reversal nearer to mid January with folks (paraphrasing him here) scratching their heads asking how such a drastic pattern flip is even possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 1 hour ago, wxw said: LC pretty much confirmed the "nothing good about anything" in his latest long range update this morning. If you are a follower of his, to summarize: Rule of the day in EC is mild side straight through end of Jan (albeit with very brief transient cold intrusions from western troughs), with limited precip chances excepting for rain possibilities last week of Jan. Hopefully the pattern breaks by early or mid Feb and we can salvage what's left of winter 2017. We'll see I guess. I am pessimistic but know that making a call that it will be warm for the next six weeks is a crap shoot. Things looked bleak last year and we pulled off an historic blizzard. It is sad because most of us wait all year for this but that's the breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 JB and Cohen are throwing hail mary's already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: JB and Cohen are throwing hail mary's already. That is worst case scenario. With +AO and +NAO and a strong PV we are toast, literally and figuratively. Looks like another good winter call by KA .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 11 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I agree with your pattern analysis but I'm pretty pessimistic on our chances even for a fluke in this pattern. even with the Aleutian ridge the rest of the northern hemisphere pattern is a mess. And this time the ridge is a bit west of before and with an even more hostile nao. So shift the whole thing west a bit perhaps. Yes there will be cold in North America and that will prevent an absolute torch like last December and could at times beat the ridge down. Maybe if something can do that then get a storm up behind it we could get lucky but that requires a lot of timing and we don't do complicated well usually. Even if this isn't a torch I think our chances of getting much snow in this look are slim at best. I'm rooting for this pattern to break quicker then expected then hope we score in whatever window we get later. In the meantime I hope one of these ghosts on the gfs or para gfs actually hits and makes me look foolish. good synopsis on both you and bobs side, my feeling 1994 ice years comes to mind, and as bob states above it has already entered his line of reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Good. Now that yet another December is toast, I'm rooting for a complete winter shut-out and wall-to-wall 60s from this point on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 36 minutes ago, wxw said: That is worst case scenario. With +AO and +NAO and a strong PV we are toast, literally and figuratively. Looks like another good winter call by KA .... yes its called get used to ice storms, and your gonna wish for early spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 1 hour ago, mdsnowlover said: yes its called get used to ice storms, and your gonna wish for early spring I'm even skeptical we get all that many "mixed" events in this pattern. We got one event because a storm came right on the heels of the best cold push we got the last month. We could easily have been **** out completely. Yea we will get some mix at times but I doubt much. Rain will be by far the dominant precip type in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm even skeptical we get all that many "mixed" events in this pattern. We got one event because a storm came right on the heels of the best cold push we got the last month. We could easily have been **** out completely. Yea we will get some mix at times but I doubt much. Rain will be by far the dominant precip type in this pattern. you maybe right, but once a winter sets up, it usually continues a la1994!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Euro has us near 70 on boxing day. Lol Unless things really start shifting quickly better in the long range, chances for snow this month look slim to none. Trends have been worse the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Euro this run has gradually increased heights over Asia and below normal 850 anomalies there are few and far between. That's a substantial change from what we've seen there over the past month. Maybe, just maybe, it's a signal that the pattern is changing/reshuffling to something that gives us a chance. Hopefully, the ensembles will concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro has us near 70 on boxing day. Lol Unless things really start shifting quickly better in the long range, chances for snow this month look slim to none. Trends have been worse the last couple days. I,m not so worried about a snowless dec as I am your concern about synoptic features dictating the pattern and if these dont re-shuffle, jan will be snowless, too. A 1st event of ice does not bode well. JMHO A pattern of cutters potentially sets us up for more similar events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 6 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said: I,m not so worried about a snowless dec as I am your concern about synoptic features dictating the pattern and if these dont re-shuffle, jan will be snowless, too. A 1st event of ice does not bode well. JMHO A pattern of cutters potentially sets us up for more similar events. We usually do half winters in these parts so I feel pretty good about a reshuffle as you called it in January, but I don't have a lot of confidence in that the other "half" will be any better pattern-wise. Only different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: We usually do half winters in these parts so I feel pretty good about a reshuffle as you called it in January, but I don't have a lot of confidence in that the other "half" will be any better pattern-wise. Only different. good point made and agree, but like in 1994 we got constant freezing rain for 3 months till spring arrived, and siberian airmasses that kept temps below 20 al day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 17 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said: good point made and agree, but like in 1994 we got constant freezing rain for 3 months till spring arrived, and siberian airmasses that kept temps below 20 al day Certainly a possibility but one I could live with if we get a comparable ice storm. Hopefully the 10-15 day globals start picking up on the necessary height changes we need for a a snowier pattern by Christmas. Even then, we likely will have to wait until at least the second week of January for it to translate to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Certainly a possibility but one I could live with if we get a comparable ice storm. Hopefully the 10-15 day globals start picking up on the necessary height changes we need for a a snowier pattern by Christmas. Even then, we likely will have to wait until at least the second week of January for it to translate to an event. looking at GFS and Euro, there is nothing even remotely looking like snow for US for15 days. Mitchnik, Chill both stated they saw changes appearing on long range gfs. Wait and see. By JB there is at least a 10-15 day warm-up on GFS ensembles with cold returning jan 17, Proceed with skepticism NO MORE ICE PLEASE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 December had such a hopeful look to it a couple of weeks ago. Now look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 1 minute ago, Sparky said: December had such a hopeful look to it a couple of weeks ago. Now look at it. Maybe these latest runs are wrong as well. Could switch back or something. I just had some Xmas punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Maybe these latest runs are wrong as well. Could switch back or something. I just had some Xmas punch. I wouldnt hold my breath on that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 4 minutes ago, Sparky said: December had such a hopeful look to it a couple of weeks ago. Now look at it. I like you using the word hopeful because I'm not sure if December ever had a really good look to it. The guys that carry this thread made it pretty clear that it was a better December pattern than we've had in recent years, but we all know how elusive snow can be in these parts unless everything comes together just right. We've been pretty fortunate in the past several years where we've gotten two or three snow events that could have gone either way. This winter appears that it might be one of those years where everything has to line up on almost perfectly. But who knows? There's definitely some changes showing up at the end of the gfs run regarding heights in both the Atlantic and Pacific, but I'll leave that discussion for those that know more than me. Hopefully it's the beginning signal of real change and not just the same oscillation reset we've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Euro has us near 70 on boxing day. Lol Unless things really start shifting quickly better in the long range, chances for snow this month look slim to none. Trends have been worse the last couple days. I know some are looking for hope or optimism and something to hold onto. But I'm not really going to just blow smoke. Things look about as awful as they could right now. There is nothing to make a snow lover feel good in any of the guidance short medium or long range. The hope we have is that it's early so things could and probably will shift again and while there is no guaruntee the next pattern will be great it can't be worse. We can hope this isn't as long lived as guidance is suggesting. It could break down faster then expected. We can hope for a fluke storm within the bad pattern. All that is hope but none of it is based on objective guidance right now. It's just wing and a prayer type hope. Fact is the pattern shown on everything going forward is about as bad as possible. Minus the ridge west of Alaska (which is too far west to help much) everything else is exactly what I would draw if someone gave me a map and crayons and said make me an h5 map that shows a snow weenies nightmare. I'm not poo pooing the whole winter. This probably breaks down in time to save a late rally IF whatever comes next is a significantly better look. It probably snows at some point. But I don't want to give a false sense of optimism that this pattern won't suck. Maybe we get a Christmas miracle and all guidance is wrong and I look like a fool by New Years. I hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 I'm not going to post about the long range until something meaningful shows up for more than 1-2 ens runs. For right now psu said it perfectly. Everything has turned hostile for snow chances in the east and for now it appears to have legs. I'm sure some folks will chime in and say LR models are as bad as throwing darts and such but when every single piece of guidance is saying the same exact thing run after run there is zero reason to discount the glaring problems we're facing through the end of the month and probably beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Euro weeklies had cold and blocking for dec and there was only Transient cold and no blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro weeklies had cold and blocking for dec and there was only Transient cold and no blocking At least now that the ao/nao are raging + in the medium range along with a strong consolidated and cold strat pv we don't have to think about it anymore for a while. The jury is in for now. Any blocking showing beyond d10 should be immediately tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not going to post about the long range until something meaningful shows up for more than 1-2 ens runs. For right now psu said it perfectly. Everything has turned hostile for snow chances in the east and for now it appears to have legs. I'm sure some folks will chime in and say LR models are as bad as throwing darts and such but when every single piece of guidance is saying the same exact thing run after run there is zero reason to discount the glaring problems we're facing through the end of the month and probably beyond. Can't recall ever seeing such agreement @15 days for such an extended period of time as we have seen between the EPS, GFS and the CMC for a week or so now. Normally you would see the models vary a little as they occasionally would key on something a little different. The only thing I can take away from that is we have entered a very stable pattern that will be very hard to get out of. Hope I am wrong but fear that I am may be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: At least now that the ao/nao are raging + in the medium range along with a strong consolidated and cold strat pv we don't have to think about it anymore for a while. The jury is in for now. Any blocking showing beyond d10 should be immediately tossed. It's somewhat comforting knowing the modeled pattern can't get worse. I am a little surprised that this bad a Jan is on the table and I didn't even have high expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: At least now that the ao/nao are raging + in the medium range along with a strong consolidated and cold strat pv we don't have to think about it anymore for a while. The jury is in for now. Any blocking showing beyond d10 should be immediately tossed. Exactly, Bob. The upcoming pattern looks well advertised now and it is not pretty. I can't help but look at your Avatar and compare to what we will likely have for the next 2 weeks----just about complete opposite. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 I refuse to get upset or excited about long-range guidance when it's been proven to be of little useful value in general in terms of daily weather. It provides something to discuss, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 someone teach mother nature to block again, please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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