December Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[PivotPoint]

The Aleutian ridge feature in its forecasted state has been a cyclical constant of about 10-12 days since October, right? I'm speaking of the ridging... I remember reading in the New England forum that it's had a pretty consistent half-life of this nature. Could be wrong...

Anyhow, my point is if the ridge progresses like it has recently... The NAO forecast isn't all that clear. Just looked at today's gfs and it's not all bad news bears... heading into prime climo with the potential for ridge to relax around the time the nao could turn to a neutral state, COULD allow for a cold trough to slide west to east and have a miller B type scenario... Where nao doesn't have the strength to help trough dig but enough to keep something from cutting west.

Im hopeful at least for beginning Jan...

[frd]

12 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

What has me concerned for all of us that want a big winter is the fact that just about every winter season that gives us much above snowfall had some meaningful snow in December. If we go snowless in December then reaching our averages will be a challenge in my opinion. 

I agree.

There are factors that happen in December,  like the average first ten day period of the AO,  and the amount of snowfall that can give indications ( clues ) of what Jan. and Feb might bring. 

There are also seasonal indications based on the predominant phase of the NAO during the winter and the pattern in Pac, posted here very recently. We get most big snows in a

- NAO , El Nino season. 

Of course there are one-time exceptions like a blizzard skewing the averages in a otherwise snowless winter. 

I really feel snowfall is still a huge unkown in Jan all the way through March this year. I am not totally sold on Feb turning warm. And some here like the idea of a favorable snow pattern , although possible with a short window of oppurtunity.  

 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

You, Bob and Wes are our best posters but you obviously know that model accuracy is low after what, 5 or six days. On any day, a significant shift in the LR can pop up and usually does, just don't know when. With that knowledge and the fact it is still December, I'm going to assume that things are basically normal for our region to date and I look forward to the JI storm in nine days or so.

You are correct about model accuracy and about normal to this point. But we are looking at the possability of a pattern going into our prime winter climo that looks pretty bad. That also can be normal around here but isn't good. Your totally right things could flip on a dime and I don't want to accidentally come off more confident in my pattern analysis then I am but there is a difference between hope and optimism. Do I have hope things turn out better then guidance suggests. Yes. Am I optimistic they do. Nope. We can only forecast based on the evidence we have. Right now most of it is bad. That doesn't mean it's accurate. Hopefully things evolve different then the evidence at this time suggests. 

[HighStakes]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

I agree.

There are factors that happen in December,  like the average first ten day period of the AO,  and the amount of snowfall that can give indications ( clues ) of what Jan. and Feb might bring. 

There are also seasonal indications based on the predominant phase of the NAO during the winter and the pattern in Pac, posted here very recently. We get most big snows in a

- NAO , El Nino season. 

Of course there are one-time exceptions like a blizzard skewing the averages in a otherwise snowless winter. 

I really feel snowfall is still a huge unkown in Jan all the way through March this year. I am not totally sold on Feb turning warm. And some here like the idea of a favorable snow pattern , although possible with a short window of oppurtunity.  

 

 

 

 

 I personally too many jumped on December and January being our best window. Sometimes analogs have to be weighted less and this year may be one of those times. Recent trends within in the past few years have been for back end winters. Maybe that trend continues even though there is no scientific reasoning.

[PhineasC]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Being analytical and pragmatic about storm chances is not necessarily worrying. I do like to stay in character on the fringe thing though. And I like to keep my expectations in check so I'm not disapointed over and over. But when I legitimately think something looks good and were likely to get a flush hit I'll say so. But we're the midvatlantic. Things look bad more often then good. That's just honest evaluation. You want to feel good without justification go read JB

LOL you know I read every post you make. Just giving you a hard time.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, HighStakes said:

What has me concerned for all of us that want a big winter is the fact that just about every winter season that gives us much above snowfall had some meaningful snow in December. If we go snowless in December then reaching our averages will be a challenge in my opinion. 

I am not sure why anyone would have gone in thinking this winter would produce much above normal snowfall. As far as going snowless this December, looks like we have a decent shot at it. The chance later this week looks bleak at this point, and the "apparent" window around day 8-10 really looks like more of the same- we will have mild air in place with a low forming and tracking ahead of a cold front to our west, then we get cold and dry for a few days following. Verbatim the 12z GFS has some snow on NYE. Guess we can keep an eye on that.

[HighStakes]

29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am not sure why anyone would have gone in thinking this winter would produce much above normal snowfall. As far as going snowless this December, looks like we have a decent shot at it. The chance later this week looks bleak at this point, and the "apparent" window around day 8-10 really looks like more of the same- we will have mild air in place with a low forming and tracking ahead of a cold front to our west, then we get cold and dry for a few days following. Verbatim the 12z GFS has some snow on NYE. Guess we can keep an eye on that.

Thats pretty much the story right. Maybe for once the pattern change will happen fast as opposed to how it is inevitably always delayed and then we it arrives it is short lived and not nearly as impressive as modeled. Im still confused as to whether we are in a weak la nina or are we neutral. 

[Bob Chill]

30 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Thats pretty much the story right. Maybe for once the pattern change will happen fast as opposed to how it is inevitably always delayed and then we it arrives it is short lived and not nearly as impressive as modeled. Im still confused as to whether we are in a weak la nina or are we neutral. 

Somewhere buried in my posts months ago I said that this winter could might end up being a close cycled good and bad with nothing dominating for more than 2 weeks at a time. Seems that a true good storm pattern for the east might be hard to come by for the foreseeable future but I doubt we get stuck in endless doldrums like 11-12 or any other years with perpetual crap periods.

To me it seems the biggest issue we're facing isn't enso related at all. For whatever reason...something that nobody can give a good explanation for...we seem to be stuck in a multi year +ao/nao cycle. It's easy to forget how important that is after 13/14-14/15. The numbers don't lie though. The vast majority of +ao/nao winters are sub climo in the snowfall dept. 

I'm not totally discounting the chance for a flip to a good blocking period. If one does happen I just hope it isn't too late in the season to help much. I'd be shocked if it happened within the next 2-4 weeks. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Personally, I don't care if we are sub climo - Climo for me is 0 coming from Louisiana. My worry is a year like 2012. I went back and read all the major snow posts in this forum for past years and that was just depressing. I'll be great with 3-4 3-4" events. Can we at least make that?

[PaEasternWX]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Somewhere buried in my posts months ago I said that this winter could might end up being a close cycled good and bad with nothing dominating for more than 2 weeks at a time. Seems that a true good storm pattern for the east might be hard to come by for the foreseeable future but I doubt we get stuck in endless doldrums like 11-12 or any other years with perpetual crap periods.

To me it seems the biggest issue we're facing isn't enso related at all. For whatever reason...something that nobody can give a good explanation for...we seem to be stuck in a multi year +ao/nao cycle. It's easy to forget how important that is after 13/14-14/15. The numbers don't lie though. The vast majority of +ao/nao winters are sub climo in the snowfall dept. 

I'm not totally discounting the chance for a flip to a good blocking period. If one does happen I just hope it isn't too late in the season to help much. I'd be shocked if it happened within the next 2-4 weeks. 

What about the -AO last year. Wasn't it negative a lot of the time last year or was that a couple years ago.

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

What about the -AO last year. Wasn't it negative a lot of the time last year or was that a couple years ago.

We haven't had a perisitant -ao since 12-13 but it was completely cancelled out by an awful pacific. The last persistent and effective -ao/nao was 10-11 but it collapsed in early Feb. The last 3 winters have had some blocking periods sandwiched between long duration + periods. 

The large majority of ma snowfall the last 3 years came with a horseshoe and clover attached. Luck embedded in chaos without much help from the usual suspects. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

LOL you know I read every post you make. Just giving you a hard time.

We're cool I didn't think you were being overly critical. We all have our personalities and biases. 

[Amped]

Even fantasy range storms are almost non existent in this pattern.

[CAPE]

35 minutes ago, Amped said:

Even fantasy range storms are almost non existent in this pattern.

Kind of expected since the pattern is generally a hostile one for snow in our region.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Well at least the 18z gfs is interesting around Christmas.

A 1040 high to the north, abundant moisture to the south.

And nobody talking about it.

[Amped]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Well at least the 18z gfs is interesting around Christmas.

A 1040 high to the north, abundant moisture to the south.

And nobody talking about it.

579DM contour over DC. There I talked about it.

[dallen7908]

According to the EURO, other than tomorrow morning the warmest it'll be during the next 10 days is a showery 57 on XMAS. Can't say much about the last few days of December but a snowless December is a pretty good bet for most of us.  

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Well at least the 18z gfs is interesting around Christmas.

A 1040 high to the north, abundant moisture to the south.

And nobody talking about it.

Dreaded SE ridge. Even if that high is "real" it will be on the move with no blocking. Sure, its worth watching, but the pattern screams cutter. The NYE threat might be more interesting for mountain areas. Long ways out though.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

7 hours ago, HighStakes said:

 I personally too many jumped on December and January being our best window. Sometimes analogs have to be weighted less and this year may be one of those times. Recent trends within in the past few years have been for back end winters. Maybe that trend continues even though there is no scientific reasoning.

Just looking at airport data, the lack of early season snowfall in this decade is unprecedented. It doesn't seem to matter what pattern we get, it just can't snow in December anymore for some reason. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Just looking at airport data, the lack of early season snowfall in this decade is unprecedented. It doesn't seem to matter what pattern we get, it just can't snow in December anymore for some reason. 

Airports maybe, but I've lived here since 08 and I've had 1", 5.5", 2", 19", 2.5", 2.5", 3", 5.5", 7.5", 5", 3", 4.5".  Thats just off the top of my head.  Avg of about 6.5".

[CAPE]

Here is the "around xmas" threat, and the potential NYE threat. As modeled on the 18z GFS the latter has more of a shot, esp for mountain areas.

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Here is the "around xmas" threat, and the potential NYE threat. As modeled on the 18z GFS the latter has more of a shot, esp for mountain areas.

 

That's one helluva CAD signal on the first one

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That's one helluva CAD signal on the first one

Depends on what the objective is. If its something like today..its doable.

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Depends on what the objective is. If its something like today..its doable.

If we had had that high shown on your map last night we would have had several inches of snow before the ice.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Airports maybe, but I've lived here since 08 and I've had 1", 5.5", 2", 19", 2.5", 2.5", 3", 5.5", 7.5", 5", 3", 4.5".  Thats just off the top of my head.  Avg of about 6.5".

Yes I was talking about DCA/IAD/BWI. You're around Winchester right? What's the average out there for December? 

[WinterWxLuvr]

30 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Yes I was talking about DCA/IAD/BWI. You're around Winchester right? What's the average out there for December? 

Well, the only average I have is what I've witnessed first hand since I moved here.  They seem to be boom or bust though.

[psuhoffman]

11 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Ensembles are starting to hone in on another aleutian ridge event d10+ (bulding prior to d10 though). It's showing up fairly strong on the means at long leads. GEFS is less amplified with the poleward push than the EPS. Here's the d11-15 EPS mean:

 

 

In general, this is a repeat of what we are experiencing now and would make sense. If it happens and holds for a time again then the aleutian ridge moves into first place for dominate features other than the usual suspects so far this winter and could end up being the story of the winter irt NA winter patterns (total speculation and just pointing out the possibility). 

The mean look is a cold canada pattern with the coldest anoms in the western half. IF this type of look is where we are going after xmas then we could experience another round of significant cold fronts with a continued west storm track. Which actually wouldn't be that bad. We're in prime climo by the end of Dec. 

 

EPS mean temps keep trending down after Christmas as well. Mean smoothing of features makes temps look stable but we know that wouldn't be the case in reality. I would expect significant ups and downs in that pattern with a continued active precip pattern. For all we know this could be remembered as the year of ice storms and or mixed events. We'll see how things progress. If we can shake se ridge amplification leading into fronts/precip events our snow chances would increase quite a bit. Assuming the progged pattern is real, embedded features should start to show up better in 5-7 days or so.

 

I agree with your pattern analysis but I'm pretty pessimistic on our chances even for a fluke in this pattern.  even with the Aleutian ridge the rest of the northern hemisphere pattern is a mess. And this time the ridge is a bit west of before and with an even more hostile nao.  So shift the whole thing west a bit perhaps. Yes there will be cold in North America and that will prevent an absolute torch like last December and could at times beat the ridge down. Maybe if something can do that then get a storm up behind it we could get lucky but that requires a lot of timing and we don't do complicated well usually. Even if this isn't a torch I think our chances of getting much snow in this look are slim at best. I'm rooting for this pattern to break quicker then expected then hope we score in whatever window we get later. In the meantime I hope one of these ghosts on the gfs or para gfs actually hits and makes me look foolish. 

[BristowWx]

5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Well at least the 18z gfs is interesting around Christmas.

A 1040 high to the north, abundant moisture to the south.

And nobody talking about it.

I talked about it,,,Bob dismissed it,,,end of story...he is right...there is nothing good about anything.  This is the winter where we just say "we had a good run"...see u next year

[CAPE]

7 hours ago, BristowWx said:

I talked about it,,,Bob dismissed it,,,end of story...he is right...there is nothing good about anything.  This is the winter where we just say "we had a good run"...see u next year

There were plenty of issues with that one run. Strength of the high was suspect. And the advertised surface temps were very marginal despite it. Bad set up in general- those highs to the north are going to run. Its just tough to get a storm not to cut west in this pattern. Did you check out the 0z op run? And now the 6z? This is why we use ensembles at long leads. I haven't even looked at the GEFS members for any of those runs, but I bet you no more than a few each run has a favorable track/outcome for our region. The advertised h5 pattern on the ens guidance over next 10 days continues to look unfavorable for frozen. That doesn't mean we cant score something decent, but it would be on the order of something like yesterday, or a weaker wave forming on the tail of a front.

[wxw]

7 hours ago, BristowWx said:

I talked about it,,,Bob dismissed it,,,end of story...he is right...there is nothing good about anything.  This is the winter where we just say "we had a good run"...see u next year

LC pretty much confirmed the "nothing good about anything" in his latest long range update this morning.

If you are a follower of his, to summarize: Rule of the day in EC is mild side straight through end of Jan (albeit with very brief transient cold intrusions from western troughs), with limited precip chances excepting for rain possibilities last week of Jan.

Hopefully the pattern breaks by early or mid Feb and we can salvage what's left of winter 2017.