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December Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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5 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Yes in northern Pennsylvania, but western Md and West Va probably average more snow than us and that is in your forum.

So let me ask you an honest question. Why are you coming down from northern PA multiple times since this fall to remind us that you and whomever thinks it's an interior winter? What value does this bring? Why would any of us care? If it's just talking weather then should we also post in your subforum during coastal winters to remind you multiple times? Does that bring value to your area?

You see, I too post in other subs occasionally. But I'm only there to bring value to their discussion. It's common courtesy. All you do is drop by say "interior interior interior". And then accuse us of complaining? Seriously dude. Give it a rest. 

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1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

Lol. Of course i do. My daughter went to camp in Honesdale for years.

It's backwards in someways but a beautiful area. Some in your forum and philly forum did get alot more snow than us last year, we got less than 30 inches while I know in the burbs here  did do better than that here.

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6 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

It's backwards in someways but a beautiful area. Some in your forum and philly forum did get alot more snow than us last year, we got less than 30 inches while I know in the burbs here  did do better than that here.

I'm sure you are a nice guy but posting like you have is very frowned upon.

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9 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

It's backwards in someways but a beautiful area. Some in your forum and philly forum did get alot more snow than us last year, we got less than 30 inches while I know in the burbs here  did do better than that here.

you need to take the hints given to you and dial it back. offer up good discussion of weather DOWN HERE, and you're good. Otherwise, give it a rest. 

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29 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Judah Cohen is all about his Polar Vortex around the New Year.  Hope this comes to fruition...

IMG_8962.PNG

yeah saw that on Twit.  He suggested that it might stretch....i hope thats not a stretch.  Something significant is needed to reshuffle the deck.

While the long range maps dont look good right now....stay away from the ledges.  It was only a couple weeks ago that we all thought the NAO was heading neg and things look quite favorable for December.  

Nut 

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There really is nothing worth noting that looks any good.  Short of a fluke system managing to cut through the ridging we are going to have nothing to track for a while.  Only way I could see something is if perhaps a system rides across to our north and temporarily knocks down the ridging and something develops along the boundary right away before heights rise again.  As for when a better pattern comes around, I would be guessing but my gut says this locks in into January then begins to shift but it is probably mid january before we see any meaningful changes.  Just has the feel of a long term locked in crap pattern.  I think were probably in a year where our periods of opportunity will be limited, but that doesn't mean they wont happen.  Even in 2001/2 there was a not so aweful pattern late december into January.  One storm was suppressed, another just tracked 50 miles too far west, and another was a sheared out mess.  Get a bit more luck and we don't remember that year as historically bad.  1999/00 had an awful pattern 90 percent of the winter, but in the 3 weeks that we had a decent one we hit on 3 significant storms (if you were NW of the cities) and one big on in the cities.  So that year even we remember as not so bad even though it was pattern wise most of the year.  Even in the worst year there will be a period that we have a shot but my gut says it won't be a long period.  Hope I am wrong on that.  The key to not getting a total dud is to get some luck and score a hit or two in that window.  With how things are timing up it might help us that these patterns usually last 3-5 weeks or so and that means our chance might come in mid winter.  That's just my gut feelings on things right now.  I am not tracking each run and torturing myself right now.  I will check things once a day probably to see if things look any better and will post from time to time or if I feel there are any changes or clues to where we are headed.  But for a while its probably gonna suck.  Happy holidays though.  We are used to suckage around this time of year so nothing new. 

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49 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I love you dude, but :lmao: 

I appreciate that  Clark.  I was just messing around but it is fun to read the responses to his hyped twitters.  Some of those people have to be from our forum.  Someone named "Becky Lymch" just slams him hard every time as if he was Obama on Fox News.  We must have her in our forum under a different screen name. 

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh cool so were only losing 4 weeks of prime Climo. This wouldn't be the same jb that called for a great December and was saying cold would roll right into January and it was a front loaded winter 2 weeks ago. Not the same guy right?  

Don't worry JB's Brazilian meteograms will save our winter.

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