Wonderdog Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hope springs eternal every 6 hours. And then it turns to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I went into this winter pretty pessimistic and have stated as such more than once so lack of snow is no surprise and my posting bitterness is more in fun than me being serious. However, now that we are midway through December and at least have some sort of idea how the month will progress, there is good reason to be concerned for a dud. I'm sure there will be more "it's only Dec, anything can happen" posts over the next couple weeks but I've been doing this routine for a long time and was quite guilty of chasing a dud season with over optimistic posts for a while there. I don't really think that way anymore once I have enough clues to connect some loose dots. PSU and I are very much on the same page right now and we're not being baseless deb downers. The only optimism I had going into this winter was the potential for the SAI to prove skeptics wrong after a couple recent debacles. My optimism for a -AO to help out has declined dramatically the last few weeks. After hints of early blocking during Nov, all trends have completely done a 180. There's no way to spin it. The AO flipped + right around the beginning of Dec and has only gotten worse. Forecasts over the near terms are really bad with potential for +4 or more SD's above normal. The GEFS has been verifying terrible in the long range and has been busting way high since the 3rd week of Nov. Forecast coming up is pretty ugly: EPS don't paint anything better either: If the forecasts are right, Dec will easily finish somewhere between +1-2 on the means for the month. Anything over 1.5 puts us in some bad company. It's a small set of data but if you take all Dec AO's with a rounded +1 or more for the month there is really no way to spin the years that come up. 82-83 is a toss and 13-14 was a miracle year. The data also shows that going all 3 monts with a +AO make it even harder. OTOH- years like 04-05 and 06-07 had their chances so that's a +. 04-05 really under performed compared to the opportunities. Overall though...this list does not give me a warm feeling for this winter and I hope my thoughts completely bust. You guys can rub it in endlessly as I shovel my driveway. Excellent at usual. Can't add much. We're very much on the same page. Unfortunately it's a dreary page of a prety crappy book. I think once we realize any prospect of a good year is bleak and realize we're fighting for respectable at this point there are some signs of hope. 99-2000 keeps popping up in pattern analogs and was in my list of winter analogs as well as the AO analogs you have. That winter was meh overall but had a rocking couple weeks. I would buy that right now. Give me two good weeks to play in the snow with my son and I'll punt the rest of winter. 2007 and 2005 could have turned out better with luck. Eps took a baby step in the right direction today. Hope is not lost as long as we manage expectations. At this point I'm just chasing one good storm not a good winter. Goal should be lets not have one of those painful total fail years. Like you I hope I'm wrong and 50" later you can all tell me how wrong I was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Weeklies say close the blinds until after Jan 15th. Disgusting Pac pattern with no blocking above us until then. Skiing in the west would be off the charts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies say close the blinds until after Jan 15th. Disgusting Pac pattern with no blocking above us until then. Skiing in the west would be off the charts though. I pretty much said the same exact thing after looking over the 12/12 runs, wrt great skiing out west. Have not looked at the latest yet, but by the sounds of it they look very similar. My take was it looked like things could get decent for us by Jan 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies say close the blinds until after Jan 15th. Disgusting Pac pattern with no blocking above us until then. Skiing in the west would be off the charts though. This is definitely a hit or miss area wrt snow. That said, arctic blasts this early in the season could be a sign that maybe we get further opportunities down the line. It would be kinda odd to have this type of bitter cold shot followed by a bust of a Winter but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Awesome post as usual Bob. You can add the MJO forecast to the negative bucket as it looks to hang around in phase 5/6 for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 I'll be glad when the 60s get here so it'll finally feel like Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 5 hours ago, yoda said: Christmas in shorts? h5 heights in the 580s Oh god.... hate that crap. Please no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Late-February/March winter again? Or maybe furnace during that period with a sloppy few inches on April 8 followed by a few days of sub-25 lows that will help kill any young plants and buds that have already started coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Wow euro weeklies are just UGLY for weeks until we're into fiction range. Even then it's not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Sorry this is my fault I moved here and killed the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 10 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Sorry this is my fault I moved here and killed the snow Winters here sucked before you, and will continue to suck long after you are gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Wow euro weeklies are just UGLY for weeks until we're into fiction range. Even then it's not great. Anything beyond one week is already in the fantasy category. It hasn't been that long ago that everything looked great and the whole place was excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 To add a little bit of realism and positivity...this winter to date is better than last winter was at this time. We just need to relax. I think we still end up ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Anything beyond one week is already in the fantasy category. It hasn't been that long ago that everything looked great and the whole place was excited. I agree 100%, but you and I both know that a crap fantasyland pattern is more likely to come true than a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Anything beyond one week is already in the fantasy category. It hasn't been that long ago that everything looked great and the whole place was excited. except I don't think myself or Bob ever thought the pattern looked great, just workable for some snow. And the pattern wasnt that far off from what was advertised, but the NAO ended up a bit more hostile and the whole pattern shifted northwest just a bit because of it and we got squat. This coming pattern is so bad it would take a lot to get it where we need. Best we can hope is it doesnt lock in for very long. Maybe by January things look better. We could also always get a fluke, even in a bad pattern. I am not throwing in the towel but I am not going to just pretend it doesnt look that bad either. The day 10 look is about as hostile as you could make it if you were looking for a textbook example of an anti snow analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 11 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Wow euro weeklies are just UGLY for weeks until we're into fiction range. Even then it's not great. And it is not just the Euro weeklies. The CFS, both weekly and monthly are looking pretty bad for the entire winter. I know we like to laugh at the CFS. But when just about everything else agrees with it. It is not good news. We were due for a crappy winter after the good run we have had the past few years. It's not looking good for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 31 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: And it is not just the Euro weeklies. The CFS, both weekly and monthly are looking pretty bad for the entire winter. I know we like to laugh at the CFS. But when just about everything else agrees with it. It is not good news. We were due for a crappy winter after the good run we have had the past few years. It's not looking good for sure. Not everything my friend...we have the jamstec on our side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Snow chase in Brazil!!! yes, i know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 37 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: And it is not just the Euro weeklies. The CFS, both weekly and monthly are looking pretty bad for the entire winter. I know we like to laugh at the CFS. But when just about everything else agrees with it. It is not good news. We were due for a crappy winter after the good run we have had the past few years. It's not looking good for sure. They have'nt got a clue they just go back and forth, but I do believe this is a north and interior winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not everything my friend...we have the jamstec on our side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 11 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: They have'nt got a clue they just go back and forth, but I do believe this is a north and interior winter. You've come in here and said this multiple times. Do you live in the interior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You've come in here and said this multiple times. Do you live in the interior? I think Carbondale belongs in the posterior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2016 Author Share Posted December 16, 2016 23 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: They have'nt got a clue they just go back and forth, but I do believe this is a north and interior winter. I do'nt put much faith in them either, but I have'nt looked at them so I should'nt say anything. Even if they are bad, it does'n't mean we ca'n't have a good winter. And as a general rule on this continent, the further north and the further interior you go, the better your chances are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 i am encouraged. There is no brown showing up on this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Stop speaking for your area...lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You've come in here and said this multiple times. Do you live in the interior? Alot of complaining in this forum, that's ok. I'm just saying what most mets think for this winter...you guys will still get your chances. These long range models are so inconsistent, it's not worth paying attention to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 36 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I think Carbondale belongs in the posterior. You don't even know where it is...lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: You don't even know where it is...lol! we don't care...lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, H2O said: we don't care...lol! Look I hope you guys do get alot of snow. I'm just saying don't go overboard, you will probably get average snowfall this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.