December Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[Wonderdog]

34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS flipped us a bone. Not a big one or anything but backed down on the ridge look by a noticeable amount a few days after christmas and holds through the end of the run. Poking a bit of a ridge into the bering sea too so the blue hole of winter death doesn't look as impressive either...if I wasn't so bitter right now I could extrapolate a -epo beyond d15. lol

LOL Bob. Tracking model runs past 6 days or so is a sure sign on insanity. But we all peek down the road, don't we.

[BTRWx]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Well...GEFS is in and thats pretty much us hitting rock bottom.  If you subtract the saturday nonsense the DC snowfall mean for the Sunday night to Tuesday night period just went from 4.5" down to 1.5" and that 1.5 is skewed by one big hit.  We went from 13/20 members showing at least a few inches from that wave at 6z to 6/20.  The signal for that period is just about dead and now in line with the hail mary kinda odds we were looking at (and still are) for the later in the week storm.  I really do wish I had something to say was the good news but honestly everything this morning has pretty much been crap so lets just hope the euro or tonights runs turn things around. 

ETA:  Ok I found something to end on a positive note.  The very end of the GEFS offers some hope in that there is enough ridging showing up into greenland to hint that some cluster is trying to extend the ridging from europe and the north atlantic into the NAO domain.  That is our path to victory here.  Get that ridging to retrograde into the NAO and center there and it will reshufle everything, and quickly.  That cold in western Canada would collapse down into the CONUS and the blocking would hold it in, and were in business pretty fast.  This time the cold would be close enough it wouldnt take a 2 week transition to get into a better place.  Were talking baby steps here but its something. 

Thanks for trying.

[Wonderdog]

Mixed precip is closer to us on Sunday night thru hour 102.

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Mixed precip is closer to us on Sunday night thru hour 102.

Look at a 6 hour panel after the 850 line gets to your area.  Little to no precip after that.

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS flipped us a bone. Not a big one or anything but backed down on the ridge look by a noticeable amount a few days after christmas and holds through the end of the run. Poking a bit of a ridge into the bering sea too so the blue hole of winter death doesn't look as impressive either...if I wasn't so bitter right now I could extrapolate a -epo beyond d15. lol

I'm with you. The last couple days has been a kick in the nuts.  Eps does look closer to workable in the long range. And I can even see how we could score a fluke after Xmas if something cuts across and beats down the ridge for a couple days. Enough op runs show it and the ensembles hint at it to say it's a possability. But today was dark times overall. Hopefully better days of tracking are ahead. 

[Eduardo]

11 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Dec 27-29 pattern is likely to begin shifting in your favor. Expect to see height building in the Greenland-Baffin region.

GFS already showing hints of snowfall event around this time. Comes and goes on last few runs, need to unify the jet a little more to dampen down the subarctic jet further north and phase it into this disturbance. Then could see 10-15 incher.

Astronomical winter FTW. 

I'm such a sucker for sweet nothings 

In all seriousness, Cohen sees similar signs of hope too.  Far from time to toss in the towel IMO. 

[mdsnowlover]

never seen a pattern where, no matter where the low originates, it invariably goes west of us. Its becoming waste of time to watch model runs because they all end up the same , cold dry, then warm wet. And after xmas another low in texas ready to cut. Guess mitchnik is right, we're in a la nina pattern

[showmethesnow]

If this isn't a sign of how bad a pattern that is being advertised I don't know what is. Both the GEFS and the ESP long range snowfall means were cut in half (if not more) on the 00Z runs from the previous runs. About the only consolation I can see, is that at least this will give us more time with our families over the holidays. 

[H2O]

The only thing i think is a saving grace about that pattern sucking is that it sucks so bad that it really has no clue on what things will be like way down the road.  Anothe 0z run that moves parts around into different places compared to previous runs.  Still no signs of ATL help but PAC isn't a total disaster.

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, H2O said:

The only thing i think is a saving grace about that pattern sucking is that it sucks so bad that it really has no clue on what things will be like way down the road.  Anothe 0z run that moves parts around into different places compared to previous runs.  Still no signs of ATL help but PAC isn't a total disaster.

Didn't think the Atlantic was looking to bad on the 06Z GFS. Heights building into Greenland from the east and the southeast ridge looks to be knocked back somewhat. But the models have been there and done that a couple of times already this year and have yet to verify. Guess we will see.

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Didn't think the Atlantic was looking to bad on the 06Z GFS. Heights building into Greenland from the east and the southeast ridge looks to be knocked back somewhat. But the models have been there and done that a couple of times already this year and have yet to verify. Guess we will see.

I only looked at the 0z.  The 6z has been so different from previous runs I just don't know what to make of it all.

[psuhoffman]

Nothing positive to report. We had 5 at bats and it seems we struck out 5 times. There are no windows on either of the ensembles. The snow mean is now down to the default 2" on gefs and less then 1" eps we see as the status quo in winter. It's a false signal from the couple of runs that have a fluke storm. Reality they say we're done for a while. 

Only better news I can find is hints on the ensembles that perhaps this pattern won't lock in for too long. They are building the ridge back towards Alaska towards the end and raising heights in the nao domain. If that Alaska ridge can be a recurring theme that would be very good. It's by no means a good look but it's evolving into one and away from the just awful day 10 look. Trust me we do not wa t to hit New Years with a vortex over Alaska and Greenland. As it is we're probably punting at least a week into January to reshuffle I don't want to start punting big chunks of our very brief prime climo window. 

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nothing positive to report. We had 5 at bats and it seems we struck out 5 times. There are no windows on either of the ensembles. The snow mean is now down to the default 2" on gefs and less then 1" eps we see as the status quo in winter. It's a false signal from the couple of runs that have a fluke storm. Reality they say we're done for a while. 

Only better news I can find is hints on the ensembles that perhaps this pattern won't lock in for too long. They are building the ridge back towards Alaska towards the end and raising heights in the nao domain. If that Alaska ridge can be a recurring theme that would be very good. It's by no means a good look but it's evolving into one and away from the just awful day 10 look. Trust me we do not wa t to hit New Years with a vortex over Alaska and Greenland. As it is we're probably punting at least a week into January to reshuffle I don't want to start punting big chunks of our very brief prime climo window. 

Ignoring the Pac and Atl for a moment and just looking at the CONUS do I see slight hints of ridging building in the west and a possibility of a trough setting up in a somewhat favorable location for our local on both the 00Z and 06Z GEFS in the long range? Or am I just grasping at straws? Of course both the ESP and CMC say no.

[psuhoffman]

After a quick analysis of all 3 long range ensembles I would say things took a half step back from the cliff last night in the long term.  lets start with the ugly.  There is no argument in any of the guidance anywhere that day 10 looks absolutely ugly.  As Bob would say the blues and reds are in all the wrong places.  After that things diverge a little bit.   We are talking BABY steps here though.  Of the three the GGEM is by far the worst look, it keeps the day 10 pattern locked in right to day 16 with no sign of relaxing.  The EPS is more ambiguous.  It begins to raise heights in the NAO domain getting them to neutral by day 15.  The EPS also builds the ridge in the north pacific back towards Alaska, never quite getting far enough northeast for our purposes but close, at least getting to a point where at day 15 only a slight adjustment and we could quickly be back in business.  Its heading the right way.  The GEFS is by far the most optimistic.  By day 16 it has higher heights building over the NAO region, but still centered a little east of where we want, but trending the right way as the blocking to the east retrogrades.  This actually makes sense globally.  It is also building ridging back towards Alaska while not there yet.  The GEFS actually ends in a pretty good spot and rolling it forward we probably get into a good pattern not long after.  My take... The GGEM ensembles (usually worth a bit more then the op) have been pretty bad this year.  They were late to see the cold coming before, then way overdid it, and then were flip flopping around like crazy on the coming warm pattern.  They are probably (hopefully) wrong in locking in the pattern they can clearly see day 10 too long.  The GEFS is probably too fast as usual but I do think they are probably on to how things will evolve but are doing it a week or so too fast.  Usually when they keep trying something it eventually is the right idea but they are rushing it.  Yes they have been trying to build heights in the NAO area all month but just looking at where things are globally right now it makes sense how the pattern progresses.  The EPS also lends support because while its slower its heading in the same direction.  I would guess the EPS is probably right on timing and we have to wait until early January to totally break the pattern and then maybe a week in before we feel the effects.  I hope to see the changes day 15 start to move ahead in time in future runs. 

You can see here how day 16 on the GEFS is a pretty good look.  Get that ridging to continue to retrograde into greenland and the ridge building in the north PAC to get into alaska and we would suddenly be in business.  It might not be an arctic cold pattern, but most of our big snow patterns aren't arcitc cold ones anyways. 

[Bob Chill]

Euro drops 1-3 with an east track low on 12/23. I'm hesitant to start a thread yet though. 

[BristowWx]

That would be the best thing ever..if it didn't melt of course

[H2O]

inside 10 days.  book it.

[MDstorm]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro drops 1-3 with an east track low on 12/23. I'm hesitant to start a thread yet though. 

Too sketchy.......I need start and stop times so that I can plan my day. 

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro drops 1-3 with an east track low on 12/23. I'm hesitant to start a thread yet though. 

Lol. There was a very weak signal there on the ensembles. A few did what the op does and develop a wave on that front. It's our last Hail Mary before Xmas. One gefs member blasts us with that system. A few others look like the euro with a couple inches. Probably just get intercepted. 

[Ji]

29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro drops 1-3 with an east track low on 12/23. I'm hesitant to start a thread yet though. 

Euro is always showing snow 7 days out this winter. By the time it gets to Dec 21, the low will in SE wisconsin and we will see 30 seconds of freezing drizzle before dry slot

[Bob Chill]

I went into this winter pretty pessimistic and have stated as such more than once so lack of snow is no surprise and my posting bitterness is more in fun than me being serious. However, now that we are midway through December and at least have some sort of idea how the month will progress, there is good reason to be concerned for a dud. I'm sure there will be more "it's only Dec, anything can happen" posts over the next couple weeks but I've been doing this routine for a long time and was quite guilty of chasing a dud season with over optimistic posts for a while there. I don't really think that way anymore once I have enough clues to connect some loose dots. PSU and I are very much on the same page right now and we're not being baseless deb downers. 

 

The only optimism I had going into this winter was the potential for the SAI to prove skeptics wrong after a couple recent debacles. My optimism for a -AO to help out has declined dramatically the last few weeks. After hints of early blocking during Nov, all trends have completely done a 180. There's no way to spin it. The AO flipped + right around the beginning of Dec and has only gotten worse. Forecasts over the near terms are really bad with potential for +4 or more SD's above normal. 

The GEFS has been verifying terrible in the long range and has been busting way high since the 3rd week of Nov. Forecast coming up is pretty ugly:

 

 

 

EPS don't paint anything better either:

 

 

If the forecasts are right, Dec will easily finish somewhere between +1-2 on the means for the month. Anything over 1.5 puts us in some bad company. It's a small set of data but if you take all Dec AO's with a rounded +1 or more for the month there is really no way to spin the years that come up. 82-83 is a toss and 13-14 was a miracle year. The data also shows that going all 3 monts with a +AO make it even harder. 

 

OTOH- years like 04-05 and 06-07 had their chances so that's a +. 04-05 really under performed compared to the opportunities. Overall though...this list does not give me a warm feeling for this winter and I hope my thoughts completely bust. You guys can rub it in endlessly as I shovel my driveway. 

 

 

[yoda]

Christmas in shorts? h5 heights in the 580s

[gymengineer]

I know as you said, it's a small data set, Bob Chill. What's interesting to me is that the median of those 15 seasons (10.2") pretty much matches the median of all seasons at DCA. I personally would find a 10" DCA/15" IAD/13" BWI type of season to be ok.... the somewhat below average but not a disaster type. Several on the list also had the turnaround happen painfully late in the winter. 

I'll be watching the rest of the east to see if other places start filling in with decent events heading into late January. But unfortunately you can't be entirely sure a true dud season until February because of the few March-salvation outliers. 

[Bob Chill]

18 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

I know as you said, it's a small data set, Bob Chill. What's interesting to me is that the median of those 15 seasons (10.2") pretty much matches the median of all seasons at DCA. I personally would find a 10" DCA/15" IAD/13" BWI type of season to be ok.... the somewhat below average but not a disaster type. Several on the list also had the turnaround happen painfully late in the winter. 

I'll be watching the rest of the east to see if other places start filling in with decent events heading into late January. But unfortunately you can't be entirely sure a true dud season until February because of the few March-salvation outliers. 

Heh, the median is pretty much what I went with for the snowfall contest. To be clear, I don't expect a total dud like <10" at all 3 airports. That seems unlikely regardless of how good or bad things look right now. 

[usedtobe]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I went into this winter pretty pessimistic and have stated as such more than once so lack of snow is no surprise and my posting bitterness is more in fun than me being serious. However, now that we are midway through December and at least have some sort of idea how the month will progress, there is good reason to be concerned for a dud. I'm sure there will be more "it's only Dec, anything can happen" posts over the next couple weeks but I've been doing this routine for a long time and was quite guilty of chasing a dud season with over optimistic posts for a while there. I don't really think that way anymore once I have enough clues to connect some loose dots. PSU and I are very much on the same page right now and we're not being baseless deb downers. 

 

The only optimism I had going into this winter was the potential for the SAI to prove skeptics wrong after a couple recent debacles. My optimism for a -AO to help out has declined dramatically the last few weeks. After hints of early blocking during Nov, all trends have completely done a 180. There's no way to spin it. The AO flipped + right around the beginning of Dec and has only gotten worse. Forecasts over the near terms are really bad with potential for +4 or more SD's above normal. 

The GEFS has been verifying terrible in the long range and has been busting way high since the 3rd week of Nov. Forecast coming up is pretty ugly:

 

 

 

EPS don't paint anything better either:

 

 

If the forecasts are right, Dec will easily finish somewhere between +1-2 on the means for the month. Anything over 1.5 puts us in some bad company. It's a small set of data but if you take all Dec AO's with a rounded +1 or more for the month there is really no way to spin the years that come up. 82-83 is a toss and 13-14 was a miracle year. The data also shows that going all 3 monts with a +AO make it even harder. 

 

OTOH- years like 04-05 and 06-07 had their chances so that's a +. 04-05 really under performed compared to the opportunities. Overall though...this list does not give me a warm feeling for this winter and I hope my thoughts completely bust. You guys can rub it in endlessly as I shovel my driveway. 

 

 

From our discussion several years ago, the huge positive anomaly usually suggests that even if the AO tries to go negative it usually rebounds fairly quickly if I remember your stats right.   LIke you I opted to the median for my snow guess earlier this year. 

[Wonderdog]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro drops 1-3 with an east track low on 12/23. I'm hesitant to start a thread yet though. 

12z  GFS Para has frozen in our area on Sunday night and it has a LP in southern VA on the 23rd.

[Yeoman]

27 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

12z  GFS Para has frozen in our area on Sunday night and it has a LP in southern VA on the 23rd.

Para is a weenies best friend this year.. of course hasn't been right once.

[HighStakes]

There is some really great discussion going on in this thread. Keep up the good work guys. This forum has some extremely knowledgeable posters and we're lucky because of it. Also why this is the best regional forum.

[Wonderdog]

I like the look of the GFS at hour 174.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I like the look of the GFS at hour 174.

Hope springs eternal every 6 hours.