December Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[snowfan]

6z GFS.....sunday night looking more interesting.

[mdsnowlover]

you have to love december, up to xmas eve all storm cut to our west. even an apparent coastal there isnt enough cold air for snow, cold front never arrives on xmas eve, even with a 1022 high in canada, amazing

[Ji]

Hmmmm

 

 

[Wxdavis5784]

40 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

you have to love december, up to xmas eve all storm cut to our west. even an apparent coastal there isnt enough cold air for snow, cold front never arrives on xmas eve, even with a 1022 high in canada, amazing

Give it time, still 10 days out.

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, mdsnowlover said:

EURO thinks risk of ice storm is diminishing

Fixed

[H2O]

There is nothing consistent in the pattern from run to run looking in the LR.  So much volatility

[Snowman.]

6z GEFS ticked up for Sunday night-Monday. Lots of members have decent hits. 

 

 

18z Saturday

After Saturday "event"

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Hmmmm

 

 

Long range signs are mixed. I said we would know how the winter is going by New Years and I still feel that way. We need a reshuffle. This pattern isn't what we want for snow. So seeing things shake up is ok. But if the coming +epo +nao locks in and is the default winter pattern were looking at 2002 and 2008. They both are in the day 8 analogs right now.  But so is January 2000 and that rolled into a great pattern about 10 days later. 2007 also shows up and while it took longer and we punted Jan it eventually evolved into a workable pattern and we have two close misses on big storms. I think we can probably kiss a really good winter goodbye at this point but we could still pull off something respectable depending which way this goes. I would settle for getting a good one month at this point and a couple decent snows because the alternative could be a real dud. 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

There is nothing consistent in the pattern from run to run looking in the LR.  So much volatility

There's really not. It's incredibly frustrating and not at all fun to track/follow. I mean...maybe it's interesting for people who have education and skill at this stuff, but for plebs like me, it's misery.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Long range signs are mixed. I said we would know how the winter is going by New Years and I still feel that way. We need a reshuffle. This pattern isn't what we want for snow. So seeing things shake up is ok. But if the coming +epo +nao locks in and is the default winter pattern were looking at 2002 and 2008. They both are in the day 8 analogs right now.  But so is January 2000 and that rolled into a great pattern about 10 days later. 2007 also shows up and while it took longer and we punted Jan it eventually evolved into a workable pattern and we have two close misses on big storms. I think we can probably kiss a really good winter goodbye at this point but we could still pull off something respectable depending which way this goes. I would settle for getting a good one month at this point and a couple decent snows because the alternative could be a real dud. 

Some good points in here, PSU.  Let's hope the +EPO/+NAO combination does *not* lock in.  I very much remember 2002 and 2008, or perhaps I should more appropriately say that there was nothing good memorable about those winters.  I don't think anyone was thinking we had much of a chance for a "really good winter" (unless they were being overly optimistic or sarcastic even), but I think most were hopeful for having decent chances to score a couple or so solid events.  And perhaps hit climo.  That's been my hope, at any rate.

The long range as you said here and sometime earlier in the thread is quite muddled and indications seem to change back and forth constantly.  Makes it hard to take the longer range guidance too much to heart.

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Long range signs are mixed. I said we would know how the winter is going by New Years and I still feel that way. We need a reshuffle. This pattern isn't what we want for snow. So seeing things shake up is ok. But if the coming +epo +nao locks in and is the default winter pattern were looking at 2002 and 2008. They both are in the day 8 analogs right now.  But so is January 2000 and that rolled into a great pattern about 10 days later. 2007 also shows up and while it took longer and we punted Jan it eventually evolved into a workable pattern and we have two close misses on big storms. I think we can probably kiss a really good winter goodbye at this point but we could still pull off something respectable depending which way this goes. I would settle for getting a good one month at this point and a couple decent snows because the alternative could be a real dud. 

I just looked at the h5 NH pattern through the 0z GFS op run and then the GEFS. Its not pretty. There is some "stability" to it. Higher heights are persistent near Scandinavia(blocking in the wrong place), also higher heights are pretty persistent mostly west of AK, with the continuation of generally lower heights near/over AK and the western US.  I know many are here are not enamored with discussions of strat warming and PV perturbations, but that may be what it takes to get things reshuffled. I also looked at the stratosphere on the GFS, and the PV is a perfect bulls-eye at 10 mb for much of the run, with T10 cold anomalies mostly on the other side of the pole. Hints of maybe some elongation towards the end of the run.

[dallen7908]

Took a quick look at Euro skew-T for Dulles.  Profile looks snow-like at 6 Z (0.04" precip by then) and freezing-rain like at 12 Z (0.15" precip between 6 and 12z).  Transition to rain by 1330 Z or so. According to Euro could end as light snow Sunday morning but temperatures still in mid-30s. 

[mappy]

GFS, both 00/06 still decent imby for Saturday. 4-6" before the flip. But without seeing soundings between 12 and 18z, hard to know for sure

[Bob Chill]

I don't think the long range looks muddy through the end of Dec.  All ens guidance shows a similar crappy snow pattern for us. SAI doing another fantastic job predicting the AO. If the -AO never develops this year we will likely be reminded that we struggle bad without one. 13/14 -14/15 went against the grain but only because of a near perfect pac. The pac has sucked so far. I see no compelling reasons to think that will do a 180 anytime soon. 

The ao is getting close to a lock for a + December. If it finishes above +1 sd on the means then the likelyhood of a + Jan is over 50%  

[Wxdavis5784]

29 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Some good points in here, PSU.  Let's hope the +EPO/+NAO combination does *not* lock in.  I very much remember 2002 and 2008, or perhaps I should more appropriately say that there was nothing good memorable about those winters.  I don't think anyone was thinking we had much of a chance for a "really good winter" (unless they were being overly optimistic or sarcastic even), but I think most were hopeful for having decent chances to score a couple or so solid events.  And perhaps hit climo.  That's been my hope, at any rate.

The long range as you said here and sometime earlier in the thread is quite muddled and indications seem to change back and forth constantly.  Makes it hard to take the longer range guidance too much to heart.

2008/2009 winter had one nice storm. 3/1/09 we had around 12" or so in the southern portion of the area.

[mappy]

For S&Gs
Cobb output for Westminster
06z nam: 2.9" before frza at 13z
00z nam: .5" then sleet at 12z

06z GFS: 4.3" then sleet at 12z
00z GFS: 2.6" then sleet at 12z

Not awful by any means

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't think the long range looks muddy through the end of Dec.  All ens guidance shows a similar crappy snow pattern for us. SAI doing another fantastic job predicting the AO. If the -AO never develops this year we will likely be reminded that we struggle bad without one. 13/14 -14/15 went against the grain but only because of a near perfect pac. The pac has sucked so far. I see no compelling reasons to think that will do a 180 anytime soon. 

Not sure if you saw my post above but I am in agreement here. Looks pretty bleak for the foreseeable future. Lets hope the weeklies have it right towards the end with improvement in the EPO and hints of higher heights near GL. 

[CAPE]

Time for a thread for the arctic cold and front end slopfest?

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not sure if you saw my post above but I am in agreement here. Looks pretty bleak for the foreseeable future. Lets hope the weeklies have it right towards the end with improvement in the EPO and hints of higher heights near GL. 

I did. I have no confidence in the ao/nao now. It has the feel of another winter with limited blocking. Just a few weeks ago the LR including the weeklies were showing a -nao during the second half of Dec. Gefs was -nao happy for a while.  Now that it's become fairly obvious that it isn't going to happen this month I'm expecting it to continue in Jan. Dec persistence bleeds into Jan more often than not and seeing the strat pv moving towards consolidated and stronger than it has been all season add confidence to those thoughts. 

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Time for a thread for the arctic cold and front end slopfest?

 

Was thinking the same.  You can't jinx an event that doesn't look that good to start with.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't think the long range looks muddy through the end of Dec.  All ens guidance shows a similar crappy snow pattern for us. SAI doing another fantastic job predicting the AO. If the -AO never develops this year we will likely be reminded that we struggle bad without one. 13/14 -14/15 went against the grain but only because of a near perfect pac. The pac has sucked so far. I see no compelling reasons to think that will do a 180 anytime soon. 

The ao is getting close to a lock for a + December. If it finishes above +1 sd on the means then the likelyhood of a + Jan is over 50%  

Yeah, the last part of this month is not looking good and that's been somewhat consistent for awhile.  I was thinking more beyond that, getting toward mid-winter, seems indications have gone back and forth.  But that generally is always the case I suppose!  It's disheartening to see the AO remaining steadfastly positive yet again, at least in the means.  I can (grudgingly!) let the last part of this month be relatively craptastic, if it doesn't carry over through most/all of January and February.

 

12 minutes ago, wdavis5784 said:

2008/2009 winter had one nice storm. 3/1/09 we had around 12" or so in the southern portion of the area.

When I said "2008", I meant winter of 2007-08, sorry for the confusion.  We got a nice clipper in December 2007 and pretty much the rest of the winter sucked.  But yes, the following season had that great early March 2009 event (after a meh season!).

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

 

Was thinking the same.  You can't jinx an event that doesn't look that good to start with.

Heh...you can't jinx the already jinxed, so maybe it will become anti-jinxed in some reverse psychological way!

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Time for a thread for the arctic cold and front end slopfest?

Go for it.  We can add in tonight's flizzard. 

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, wdavis5784 said:

2008/2009 winter had one nice storm. 3/1/09 we had around 12" or so in the southern portion of the area.

That year is in the analog set too, and was awful until March, Ill pass on that nonsense.  But the year I was referring too is 2007/08 which was pretty much a total fail start to finish. 

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't think the long range looks muddy through the end of Dec.  All ens guidance shows a similar crappy snow pattern for us. SAI doing another fantastic job predicting the AO. If the -AO never develops this year we will likely be reminded that we struggle bad without one. 13/14 -14/15 went against the grain but only because of a near perfect pac. The pac has sucked so far. I see no compelling reasons to think that will do a 180 anytime soon. 

The ao is getting close to a lock for a + December. If it finishes above +1 sd on the means then the likelyhood of a + Jan is over 50%  

I agree 100%, when I said long range I meant the rest of winter.  I think at this point were going to have to punt xmas to new years and probably a good bit into January.  If you look at the ensembles, both GEFS and EPS any uptick in snow, even minor, totally ends around day 12.  After that its torch city with not even one or two random members showing snow.  Like we have talked about already, the left over cold will cause a lag effect and we could get lucky with one of the waves next week, but after that its going to get ugly for as long as that pattern stays in place.  It's about as bad a pattern as we could possibly get.  But I am not sold thats it for the rest of winter.  There is some evidence things may roll into a more favorable pattern.  The ridging over the eastern north atlantic could easily pull back into greenland at some point and then everything under it collapses and suddenly were tracking again.  That really wouldn't take much adjustment even as bad as the pattern looks as is.  There are a few analogs in the mix that suggest its possible, but full disclosure the majority of the analogs to the coming pattern are but ugly and were really awful winters with very extended torch periods.  It's still early so I am still hopeful but if in 10 days were starting at this same look on day 15 of the ensembles were in big trouble. 

ETA: not gonna lie, the last couple days of evidence, long range guidance on all 3 major data sets settling on a stable +EPO +NAO, the PV looking like it wants to park over the pole and go roid rage on us, the euro weeklies pulling back even further into January on any shake up, and now years like 2001/2 2007/8 showing up in the NCEP analogs, well its pretty hard not to take a step back looking at all that and think "Houston we have a problem".  Its still early and in a week things could look different but right now were staring a lot of ugly in the face. 

[mitchnick]

I don't know exactly why in light of all the reasons stated so eloquently by Bob and Psu, but I think we will have some surprises and Dec will end with above normal snow at BWI and IAD.  DCA? Only if they fire the crew that's been measuring snow for the past 10 years! 

[CAPE]

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Go for it.  We can add in tonight's flizzard. 

Darn someone beat me to it lol.

Got tied up with work.

[North Balti Zen]

Sorry. Trying to will frozen into existence. 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Sorry. Trying to will frozen into existence. 

You done good. Nice thread title.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't think the long range looks muddy through the end of Dec.  All ens guidance shows a similar crappy snow pattern for us. SAI doing another fantastic job predicting the AO. If the -AO never develops this year we will likely be reminded that we struggle bad without one. 13/14 -14/15 went against the grain but only because of a near perfect pac. The pac has sucked so far. I see no compelling reasons to think that will do a 180 anytime soon. 

The ao is getting close to a lock for a + December. If it finishes above +1 sd on the means then the likelyhood of a + Jan is over 50%  

Wonder how Cohen will spin it?