yoda Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Per 00z GFS: 12z SUN at DCA -- low 50s and rain 00z MON at DCA -- low 30s and sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 8 minutes ago, yoda said: I have a good feeling for Sun Night into Mon Night... Cold front took too long... but the ensembles were playing up the threat from the past 2 cycles... so lets see what the 00z ensembles show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Per 00z GFS: 12z SUN at DCA -- low 50s and rain 00z MON at DCA -- low 30s and sleet We are going to strike out on every event. You just know it's happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, Ji said: We are going to strike out on every event. You just know it's happening I don't think so... tomorrow nights "threat" only recently showed up for a dusting to half inch of snow... we toss Fri night into Sat... and we now root for the CF to move its @$$ for Late Sunday into Monday chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ji said: We are going to strike out on every event. You just know it's happening It is good to see you back in typical December form. Anybody know where Leesburg is? I haven't seen any posts from him for a while. Idk, maybe I missed something over the past few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Cold front took too long... but the ensembles were playing up the threat from the past 2 cycles... so lets see what the 00z ensembles show When I dug into that period a bit more, a LOT of that digital snow was actually freezing rain. I am not sure how much of a signal there is for much snow there really. A signal for some very marginal icing, like 32 and rain, maybe. A few members did have a decent look for snow, but not as good as that snow mean appeared, and those kind of trailing wave setups fail more often then not. Its our next best chance, but don't get your hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, yoda said: I don't think so... tomorrow nights "threat" only recently showed up for a dusting to half inch of snow... we toss Fri night into Sat... and we now root for the CF to move its @$$ for Late Sunday into Monday chance Not so sure we can end as snow Sunday evening, but a bit of ice could be possible on the GFS verbatim. It has a piece of the 1040+ high over Iowa split off and form a 1030+mb high in southern Canada. This would allow "cold" air to get here faster with NE wind as opposed to NW wind. That's our only chance. I never feel comfortable about the rain to snow here in the Mid-Atlantic due to those blasted mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: When I dug into that period a bit more, a LOT of that digital snow was actually freezing rain. I am not sure how much of a signal there is for much snow there really. A signal for some very marginal icing, like 32 and rain, maybe. A few members did have a decent look for snow, but not as good as that snow mean appeared, and those kind of trailing wave setups fail more often then not. Its our next best chance, but don't get your hopes up. Interesting because even on AmWx, the ensemble members were showing the QPF up as snow... the thickness levels were all south of DC... guess we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Right on queue....cmc looks amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 00z GGEM... no... must not check... no... ok fine lets see... oh come on now... 2-4" Snow to ice to dryslot... it reels us back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Right on queue....cmc looks amazing don't do it man, put down the ggem and walk away slowly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: don't do it man, put down the ggem and walk away slowly It had the crappiest look at 12z so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 CMC is way faster to move the precip in to our area Friday night which makes a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Right on queue....cmc looks amazing hate to pop your bubble but the precip type algorithms are all messed up (and that's not even close to the biggest problem with the GGEM) because it says its still snowing across the whole area at 12z but this is the 850 temps...hmm. Its not really that good.at's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 11 minutes ago, Ji said: Right on queue....cmc looks amazing You know in your heart of hearts that it's wrong. But you'll cling to it. Euro is going to knife you real good tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Call me when the euro has arrived at the ballpark. See you in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I'm more interested in the cmc's historic ice storm early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm more interested in the cmc's historic ice storm early next week. If all I get out of this month is an inch of slop and then a week without power I'm going to be a little cranky. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 32 minutes ago, Ji said: Right on queue....cmc looks amazing Snowfall looks about the same as 12z. Pivotalweather has better accumulation plots than TT. Here's 12z. And here's 00z. 00z has a fraction of an inch more areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: If all I get out of this month is an inch of slop and then a week without power I'm going to be a little cranky. Lol This winter may go down as the winter of snow fails and record ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm more interested in the cmc's historic ice storm early next week. Forget that, look at the 384 hour gfs. That's the one!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm more interested in the cmc's historic ice storm early next week. Not sure if half an inch of ice is historic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Forget that, look at the 384 hour gfs. That's the one!!!! Just 64 more runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Not sure if half an inch of ice is historic... There would be about 2" of ZR in central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, cae said: There would be about 2" of ZR in central VA. Is there a map that shows ice amounts? I would like to see such a map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 6 minutes ago, cae said: There would be about 2" of ZR in central VA. Would be interesting if it wasn't the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 11 minutes ago, yoda said: Is there a map that shows ice amounts? I would like to see such a map http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=zr_acc&rh=2016121400&fh=180&r=us_ma&dpdt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, cae said: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=zr_acc&rh=2016121400&fh=180&r=us_ma&dpdt Wow... and thanks for the link. I forgot pivotalweather had that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 DT thinks risk of ice storm is diminishing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 wow, on 6z gfs second wave develops in SC and dumps what appears to be maybe 2-4 additional snow hrs 120-126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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