WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Ok, time for the new thread in time for the 0z runs. Somebody with the power to do so please pin this one and shut down the other one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 e3 would be like the best case scenario on the gfs ens. All snow. No change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 New euro weeklies are out- at least the h5 height and 850t anomalies. Cant say I am in love with it. Lots of + heights on the east coast. Hints of NA blocking throughout but we know how that goes. Lots of blue over AK and out west. Looks better towards mid-late Jan (lol) with an epo ridge. Overall a meh. eta- control run anomaly is pretty spectacular beyond day 15. Just ridiculous with the -AO/-NAO/-EPO and arctic cold outbreaks. Drool worthy. If only.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 @WinterWxLuvr I've always wondered the same thing about the gfs -bullseye as it typically extends into mby. Only thing i can think of is that it is overestimating the rain shadow effect between the western ridges and the BR. I agree tho...always way exaggerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 8 minutes ago, poolz1 said: @WinterWxLuvr I've always wondered the same thing about the gfs -bullseye as it typically extends into mby. Only thing i can think of is that it is overestimating the rain shadow effect between the western ridges and the BR. I agree tho...always way exaggerated. I only see it on wx bell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Thanks for the reply in the other thread wxusaf Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I'm still waiting for the models to show the Wed storm hugging the coast instead of moving away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok, time for the new thread in time for the 0z runs. Somebody with the power to do so please pin this one and shut down the other one. In regards to your question about the snow hole over your area from the old thread. In general it's the rainshadow effect from the 4500 ft ridges to your southwest in WV. It happens when there is a sw wind component especially so this situation is one that is more a factor. It doesn't hurt you as much in storms with an east or northeast wind although there is some downslope off the blue ridge. As to why you don't notice it on the ground is often due to your area getting higher ratios where you are. So .4 qpf can be more snow then places east of you that get .6. Those snow maps don't account for ratios though and perhaps they overdo the shadow effect. In some storm your area can get crushed with a deep easterly fetch banking up against the allegheny front. But even then you will get slightly less the the ridges around you. This particular storm your also stuck between waves. Some of those gefs runs have the main waa thump going south kinda like that feb storm last year. On those your stuck in the dead zone between that southern wave and the little Arctic anafront wave Wednesday night that goes north. So that accounts for the extreme hole on those 3 runs. The precip hole is real though. If you look at actual qpf maps of VA there is a real minimum in your area that matches up with those snow holes. But due to other factors listed above you usually do fine with ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I know I mentioned the Feb 2015 event a couple of days ago in regards to how cold we need the entrenched air to be to really score big in these events. I dont see this air mass being anywhere near as cold as that one. My records show a low of 5 degrees that morning. Not saying we wont get snow out of this. But I never flipped during that event. This one is going to flip much earlier I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 18z gfs took another tick up in snow. DC mean now 8.5". About 4" from Saturday. Then the other 4.5 is spread out the following week with the model undecided on what wave to amplify. A spread between Sunday and Xmas with the look of waves along the east coast in general. Some rain some snow but most members clip us somewhere but they can't agree on which one. The mean is skewed a bit high by one member that drops 20" on Xmas day. Not that any of us would want that. Looking ahead the day 15 period becomes very ambiguous. That's a good thing because before the h5 looked like a train wreck. Now the heights are are all wrong but the anomalies are so minor there has to be some disagreement among the members. A look at the spaghetti indicates plenty of members with a less hostile look in the long range. HM on Twitter seems convinced the +epo is overdone and temporary fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Here's the Canadian ensembles (geps) at hour 120 from 12zhttp://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PT&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=1209 or 18 please......love that strong HP anchored over Maine. 14 wouldnt be horrible either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 18z gfs took another tick up in snow. DC mean now 8.5". About 4" from Saturday. Then the other 4.5 is spread out the following week with the model undecided on what wave to amplify. A spread between Sunday and Xmas with the look of waves along the east coast in general. Some rain some snow but most members clip us somewhere but they can't agree on which one. The mean is skewed a bit high by one member that drops 20" on Xmas day. Not that any of us would want that. Looking ahead the day 15 period becomes very ambiguous. That's a good thing because before the h5 looked like a train wreck. Now the heights are are all wrong but the anomalies are so minor there has to be some disagreement among the members. A look at the spaghetti indicates plenty of members with a less hostile look in the long range. HM on Twitter seems convinced the +epo is overdone and temporary fwiw. Yeah, not too sure what to make of anything beyond about next week. Heck, same goes for this weekend! I have not been overly encouraged by the h5 pattern overall getting into late December. But as you imply it sure looks volatile in the ensembles. I'll take it as a good sign that HM thinks the projected +EPO is transient and maybe overdone. I'd at least like to head into the New Year with some good signs as we approach mid winter. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Some of the 18z GEFS members on AmWx really drop the hammer at hrs 114 and 120... if we can stay cold enough/thicknesses low enough, we could see a nice thump... possibly WSW criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Looking at the 2m temp anomalies on the new EPS weeklies(already commented on h5 above), they are warmer than the previous run(s). Instead of normal to below normal on avg beyond day 15, the 7 day temp avg is now above for most of the run, until the end- the last few days of Jan when temps are avg. Looks like a great winter for skiing in the inter-mountain west, Not so much in the east, including NE. Of course its all fwiw. Hopefully things play out a bit differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looking at the 2m temp anomalies on the new EPS weeklies(already commented on h5 above), they are warmer than the previous run(s). Instead of normal to below normal on avg beyond day 15, the 7 day temp avg is now above for most of the run, until the end- the last few days of Jan when temps are avg. Looks like a great winter for skiing in the inter-mountain west, Not so much in the east, including NE. Of course its all fwiw. Hopefully things play out a bit differently. More importantly, what did it provide for next weeks Powerball number? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 hours ago, clskinsfan said: I know I mentioned the Feb 2015 event a couple of days ago in regards to how cold we need the entrenched air to be to really score big in these events. I dont see this air mass being anywhere near as cold as that one. My records show a low of 5 degrees that morning. Not saying we wont get snow out of this. But I never flipped during that event. This one is going to flip much earlier I would think. Yeah and all of us south of the cities got screwed bigly in that event. I had partly sunny skies and 0.5" of (mostly) sleet, while areas less than an hour north of me got 6+". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Further sig run to run differences on gfs - really holding the lp back this run, with the center over NV vs WY in the 18z at 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 GFS is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Yeah, this run is drier and slower over all so far. Less snow, some ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, this run is drier and slower over all so far. Less snow, some ice Precip doesn't really arrive in earnest until the cold is basically gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 6 minutes ago, yoda said: GFS is ugly At DCA: 108 would be snow... 111 would be snow if rates heavy enough... 114 ice... 117 freezing drizzle/drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 Differences keep coming from how the models handle the energy coming into the west coast. It's different every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Not as bad as I thought it would be... if you wish to believe the AmWx snow totals... we see 3-5 inches in N VA/DC/C MD... also from TT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Looks weird, but GFS has a bullseye of precip over us in the 3 hour period between 12-15z on Saturday and it falls as snow. Don't really buy it as it seems the whole system is dry up until that point and then it snatches victory from the jaws of defeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Looks weird, but GFS has a bullseye of precip over us in the 3 hour period between 12-15z on Saturday and it falls as snow. Don't really buy it as it seems the whole system is dry up until that point and then it snatches victory from the jaws of defeat. Its like we get flurries and light snow to start out... then get a mega 4-5 hr thump of snow... then freezing rain/drizzle to drizzle all in 12 hrs or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, yoda said: Its like we get flurries and light snow... then a mega 4-5 hr thump of snow... then freezing rain/drizzle to drizzle all in 12 hrs or so Not even 4-5 hours, like 2-3 hours. And it appears out of thin air it seems. 18z's thump was more believable because the whole system was wetter and the precip arrived earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I'm preparing for some flurries followed by 1" of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just now, WxUSAF said: Not even 4-5 hours, like 2-3 hours. And it appears out of thin air it seems. 18z's thump was more believable because the whole system was wetter and the precip arrived earlier. True... we toss ;) But it would be fun to go from 0 to 5" in 2-3 hrs of dumping snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not even 4-5 hours, like 2-3 hours. And it appears out of thin air it seems. 18z's thump was more believable because the whole system was wetter and the precip arrived earlier. Just take the magic snow and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 minute ago, yoda said: True... we toss But it would be fun to go from 0 to 5" in 2-3 hrs of dumping snow Just now, stormtracker said: Just take the magic snow and run with it I mean, I'll take any mufugger's fantasy snow if they just GIVING it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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