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December 12th Storm Obs


dryslot

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1 minute ago, wxmanmitch said:

A nice little band of enhancement over my area right now. Around 1" so far with terrific snow growth.

The radar seems to be matching up quite nicely with the last couple of runs of the RGEM so far.

I was curious what was going on down there as radar looked pretty good. Hope that slides up my way.

24F with .3" down. 

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16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

925 mb separates them out a little more, CMC-reg leading the way, followed by NAM, GFS and Euro in that order. 

 

14 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

A nice little band of enhancement over my area right now. Around 1" so far with terrific snow growth.

The radar seems to be matching up quite nicely with the last couple of runs of the RGEM so far.

RGEM holds the snow the longest for the interior but if you take a consensus of all the mesoscale models there will certainly be a very fine line between forecasted minimums and maximums being realized in areas between the N of the Pike and W of I-495. 

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

RGEM holds the snow the longest for the interior but if you take a consensus of all the mesoscale models there will certainly be a very fine line between forecasted minimums and maximums being realized in areas between the N of the Pike and W of I-495. 

NCAR ensemble thinking along those lines. Could go from meh to man snow in some short distances. The overall layout of snowfall totals I like though.

snowacc_mean_f048_NE.png

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10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

NCAR ensemble thinking along those lines. Could go from meh to man snow in some short distances. The overall layout of snowfall totals I like though.

snowacc_mean_f048_NE.png

Although some will be disappointed, that map is quite reasonable.  What is often forgotten by the weenie in many of us is that despite the importance of the RA/SN transition line there is the the snow growth factor,  which models often handle poorly over short distances, with many variances in microclimates and terrain. The difference for me in NW MA with a SWFE can be 3"- 6" with the same LE. 

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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Although some will be disappointed, that map is quite reasonable.  What is often forgotten by the weenie in many of us is that despite the importance of the RA/SN transition line there is the the snow growth factor,  which models often handle poorly over short distances, with many variances in microclimates and terrain. The difference for me in NW MA with a SWFE can be 3"- 6" with the same LE. 

It is a terribly hard thing to forecast (so many variables) but it is really the only way you're going to get a real strong snow map. Doing snow totals based off one ratio or surface temps only is missing a lot of the picture.

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0.75" and Fantastic Snow Quality!  

 

      Overachiever at this point.  Hopefully Snows until 5am.  Terrible that it gets So warm tomorrow, then we look to Miss the mid-week, then Bitter cold, and then Warms up AGAIN for the next storm, it'll be rain so no taking advantage of the cold blast.  Classic tales of a Sucky Winter Incoming..... at least usually.  

 

 

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Starting to get a bit better organized over SNE but the real stuff is racing NE in PA...however much of that stuff can rip into the area before about 11z, it will make the difference between maybe 2" and 4-5" for some areas in the interior between Ray in NE MA and ORH over to Berkshires.

 

 

 

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