December 16-18 Winter Storm Threat

[ConvectiveIA]

27 minutes ago, buckeye said:

 

GFS and NAM are worlds apart for central OH.  GFS would be a quick hit of sleet and freezing rain turning quickly to rain...  NAM would be a significant ice event if not flat out icestorm before the switch.   

Looks like the teams are GFS/Euro vs. NAM/GGEM.    I've read the nam handles these low level thermal issues better than the gfs...  but one of these has to start budging soon.

AS far as Iowa is concerned it seems like the NAM and GFS have completely swapped places as the day has worn on. 18z GFS suggests all but the extreme SW of Iowa's bottom two tiers will be seeing at least some snow with heavy snow in the top half. NAM has no such thing with only the top 3rd seeing anything appreciable. I hope things trend south for you guys in IL/IN/OH and seriously.... Don't let it ice, Don't let it ice, Don't let it ice.

[Powerball]

4 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

My early calls on this one:

DSM 8" MLI 6" LSE 9"

MSN 10" MKE 13" GRB 7" ORD 12"

PIA 6" (turns to sleet then back to snow)

LAF 2" (mostly sleet and rain)

FWA 5" (messy mix) SBN 9" (ZR 0.5")

DTW 12" LAN 15" GRR 15" MBS 19"

APN 12"

TOL 6-12" (sharp gradient, mixing south)

CLE 4" (S+ to ZR to R back to IP and S)

YXU 12" (coating of ZR)

YYZ 9" (long period of ZR back to snow)

Bad Axe MI with the Max 24" _ Hell freezes over, 15"

ORD may get 3-5" less than Gary IN due to NNE flow at height of storm.

 

lol.

[cyclone77]

Took a quick glance at the 12z/18z models.  Not much has changed in my thinking from before.  First (and probably last) call for here/QC is 0.5-2" of snow, with perhaps a small glaze from a period or two of frizzle fo shizzle.  

 

EDIT:  I don't know what it is, but the GEM sure has a hard-on for the DVN cwa.  Seems to always smack us pretty good when the other models are like nah.

[ConvectiveIA]

10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Took a quick glance at the 12z/18z models.  Not much has changed in my thinking from before.  First (and probably last) call for here/QC is 0.5-2" of snow, with perhaps a small glaze from a period or two of frizzle.  

Truth is, though, with a multifaceted system poised to be sauntering through the area for 2 solid days with several chances of snow it would really shock me if we didn't at least see an inch along the DSM to QC county tiers, even though I admit I'm being more "intuitive" and less cold-hard-facts.

[zinski1990]

Only here in Central Indiana can we have a few days in a row of arctic air with temps in the upper teens and twenties with no significant snow and a big storm moves in one day warming us up to like 55 with rain and back to arctic air with no snow again. All you guys to the north are spoiled. Just sucks lol

[weatherbo]

16 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Only here in Central Indiana can we have a few days in a row of arctic air with temps in the upper teens and twenties with no significant snow and a big storm moves in one day warming us up to like 55 with rain and back to arctic air with no snow again. All you guys to the north are spoiled. Just sucks lol

I lived in Indiana for many years in Warsaw.  I feel your pain.  -1, snowing and blowing up here.  If it's going to be cold, it might as well be snowing.

Thinking 10-12" with the Fri/sat system here with n/ne winds off the lake.

[zinski1990]

I'm originally from the UP where u live! I lived in Marquette until I was about 14. I always loved snow and definitely got a ton when I was living there. Most of my family still is up there today except my mom, brother, and I. Oh I want to visit up there wintertime again.

[weatherbo]

3 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

I'm originally from the UP where u live! I lived in Marquette until I was about 14. I always loved snow and definitely got a ton when I was living there. Most of my family still is up there today except my mom, brother, and I. Oh I want to visit up there wintertime again.

Seems we have switched places.  I live Just n/e of the Silver Lake Basin, north of Red road if you know where that is (25 miles from Marquette).  Lots more snow coming for the northern lakes it appears.

[zinski1990]

2 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Seems we have switched places.  I live Just n/e of the Silver Lake Basin, north of Red road if you know where that is (25 miles from Marquette).  Lots more snow coming for the northern lakes it appears.

I do know where that is. I've been pretty much everywhere across the UP. I was born in Iron Mountain. I miss the UP so much. And yes I remember snow maps like that were the usual there

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

0Z NAM gets the insane ice even further north.

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

0Z NAM gets the insane ice even further north.

Insane is a little hyperbolic, but yes, another robust run.

[IWXwx]

It does show significant icing for the Ohio I 70 crowd before the flip.

[Hoosier]

[geddyweather]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Somewhat impressive numbers for central Ohio (if it materializes of course). Area hasn't gotten an icing like that in a few years. Storms in recent past like this have usually hugged the Ohio River (at least the ones that stand out in my memory).

[Chicago Storm]

0z NAM came in a bit north and drier in the snow sector.

[hlcater]

NAM also has a deformation band much like the GFS. Last minute weenie band to drop an inch or two?

[Jim Martin]

0z NAM sounding for Bellefontaine, Ohio late Friday Night/early Saturday morning.

[ConvectiveIA]

2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

NAM also has a deformation band much like the GFS. Last minute weenie band to drop an inch or two?

I was just now looking at that "strange" band offshooting from the main northern swath, running from southern Kansas, through DSM and up to the WI border. I wasn't sure what that would be called until you posted this comment seeing as I'm relatively new at terminologies. I would think it kind of early for models to be able to predict such a thing with any accuracy.

[buckeye]

11 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

Somewhat impressive numbers for central Ohio (if it materializes of course). Area hasn't gotten an icing like that in a few years. Storms in recent past like this have usually hugged the Ohio River (at least the ones that stand out in my memory).

The nam's depiction reminds me of the effects we had here in Central Ohio at the onset of the Chicago GHD blizzard.  It started with a quick burst of sleet and then we had a few hours of heavy freezing rain.    There was a lot of hype about that impending ice storm but 2 things kept it from being very bad.  First the freezing rain was so heavy it actually hurt accretion.  Second, the temps warmed above freezing and we eventually changed to plain rain.   

In my experience with ice storms, they are much worse when the cold follows on their tail with no thaw vs. a changeover to rain.   

[hlcater]

2 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

I was just now looking at that "strange" band offshooting from the main northern swath, running from southern Kansas, through DSM and up to the WI border. I wasn't sure what that would be called until you posted this comment seeing as I'm relatively new at terminologies. I would think it kind of early for models to be able to predict such a thing with any accuracy.

Deformation zones are notorious for being VERY hard to predict. Sometimes it's hard to get an accurate forecast of it just 6-8 hours out, let alone 3-4 days. Which is why you almost never see forecasts/headlines issued based on deformation bands. These can be pretty potent and I've seen several that have dropped ~4" in the span of just a few hours. But like I said, most of the time you really don't know where it's going to go until its already there.

[Hoosier]

11 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

0z NAM sounding for Bellefontaine, Ohio late Friday Night/early Saturday morning.

That is pretty classic.  Deep melting layer above 0C and probably not a thick enough/cold enough layer underneath to refreeze prior to ground contact.

[kerbs]

^^^Highest Point in Ohio

[buckeye]

1 minute ago, kerbs said:

^^^Highest Point in Ohio

indeed

for perspective that is where one of the few ski lodges in Ohio is located 

[IWXwx]

5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

The nam's depiction reminds me of the effects we had here in Central Ohio at the onset of the Chicago GHD blizzard.  It started with a quick burst of sleet and then we had a few hours of heavy freezing rain.    There was a lot of hype about that impending ice storm but 2 things kept it from being very bad.  First the freezing rain was so heavy it actually hurt accretion.  Second, the temps warmed above freezing and we eventually changed to plain rain.   

In my experience with ice storms, they are much worse when the cold follows on their tail with no thaw vs. a changeover to rain.   

If you get enough accretion before it warms, it can still do serious damage to the electric grid. But you're right, I'd much rather it warm up than go into a deep freeze immediately afterwards. And yes, GHD is a painful memory for me.

[B-Rent]

If you get enough accretion before it warms, it can still do serious damage to the electric grid. But you're right, I'd much rather it warm up than go into a deep freeze immediately afterwards. And yes, GHD is a painful memory for me.

You're not the one that had to rent a tile scraper and a blow torch to get out of his front door.


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[Hoosier]

Have to remember that we are still a ways away from everything pertinent to this setup coming onshore.  This is especially true with the wave coming on Saturday into Sunday.  Hopefully we can get that thing to trend better on upcoming runs.

[Jim Martin]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Have to remember that we are still a ways away from everything pertinent to this setup coming onshore.  This is especially true with the wave coming on Saturday into Sunday.  Hopefully we can get that thing to trend better on upcoming runs.

True.

[Hoosier]

GGEM looks pretty nice again.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

GGEM looks pretty nice again.

Is it just me, or does it appear the GEM has actually been the most consistent model run to run so far?

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Is it just me, or does it appear the GEM has actually been the most consistent model run to run so far?

Hmm, I'm not sure.  I'd say the models have been fairly consistent within themselves for the past 2 or 3 runs, leaving lingering uncertainties in the details.  Still some important details to figure out.