Roon Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 40 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Most of the media seems to be using 10:1 ratios. That just seems odd to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 So close to getting the wife a snowblower for Christmas yet again this yr... but just like her new lawnmower this yr - it was not needed until the drought busted. We shovel on :0) Trying to ignore the GFS continually showing a nice outcome for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 The GEM is a glimmer of hope for us down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Looks like the 12z NAM stayed consistent with the snow area. The 12z GFS might have come in a bit north and slightly wetter overall.The 12z GGEM is actually a bit south, and wetter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 There's a real nice slug of moisture on the nose of the low level jet on the GGEM... more robust on there than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: There's a real nice slug of moisture on the nose of the low level jet on the GGEM... more robust on there than the other models. Agree. I also wonder if there might be some lake enhancement in the Chicago metro area as the low passes by. You'd rather have NNE winds instead of NE/ENE, along with colder delta T's...but it will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 Just now, beavis1729 said: Agree. I also wonder if there might be some lake enhancement in the Chicago metro area as the low passes by. You'd rather have NNE winds instead of NE/ENE, along with colder delta T's...but it will be close. There were some earlier runs that looked more favorable, in terms of duration. More recent runs have tended to shift it over toward MI as the colder air comes in. Certainly wouldn't rule out some enhancement somewhere on the WI/IL side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 29 minutes ago, Hoosier said: There were some earlier runs that looked more favorable, in terms of duration. More recent runs have tended to shift it over toward MI as the colder air comes in. Certainly wouldn't rule out some enhancement somewhere on the WI/IL side. I'll be shocked if SWMI doesn't get smoked by this when all is said and done. (.02) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 Significant differences in where the mixing zone lies at 9z Sat. The GFS already has it up at I-80, while the GGEM and NAM are generally farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 12z ECMWF still firm on its position, though is a bit wetter overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 47 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Significant differences in where the mixing zone lies at 9z Sat. The GFS already has it up at I-80, while the GGEM and NAM are generally farther south. GGEM is on it's own. It brings the 'winter storm' effects all the way down to i-70 in Ohio. The only model showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 12 minutes ago, buckeye said: GGEM is on it's own. It brings the 'winter storm' effects all the way down to i-70 in Ohio. The only model showing that. NAM has some pretty good ice into central OH. No snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 My early calls on this one: DSM 8" MLI 6" LSE 9" MSN 10" MKE 13" GRB 7" ORD 12" PIA 6" (turns to sleet then back to snow) LAF 2" (mostly sleet and rain) FWA 5" (messy mix) SBN 9" (ZR 0.5") DTW 12" LAN 15" GRR 15" MBS 19" APN 12" TOL 6-12" (sharp gradient, mixing south) CLE 4" (S+ to ZR to R back to IP and S) YXU 12" (coating of ZR) YYZ 9" (long period of ZR back to snow) Bad Axe MI with the Max 24" _ Hell freezes over, 15" ORD may get 3-5" less than Gary IN due to NNE flow at height of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 That's the best GFS backside SN run yet for us farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: NAM has some pretty good ice into central OH. No snow though. I was looking at that. Sometimes the NAM is quicker to pick up on the ice storm possibility than the GFS. If there's a big ice storm in Ohio then I will perhaps see some of the effects of it next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Cyclone vs. Roger Smith. What a battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 Still enough differences in the details but I'd be a little surprised if we avoid mixing here. Even on the models where the warm nose peaks at 1C or less, it looks somewhat deep. You could possibly overcome a warm nose like that with heavy precip but it looks doubtful that rates will be good enough at that time. My bigger uncertainty is whether it ever gets above 32. It's a close call if you take a blend of the models. Any northward adjustment in track would obviously make it more likely. If the track stays as is and we can manage a few inches of snow on the front end, perhaps that could make the difference in a case where you are talking about a half a degree or a degree either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 I know this is an annoying question but haven't had time to read so quick poll: Supposed to fly in to Chicago Friday night at 10:30pm. Will my flight be cancelled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 IWX currently thinking the extreme northern CWA could get slammed with very heavy snow Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 LOT afternoon afd mentions 6" north of I-80 and some ice accumulation to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Eastern Indiana Western Ohio could be dealing with a significant icing situation, NAM been drilling that corridor hard with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 GRR saying 6-10" DTX going 3-6". Someone is going to be wrong there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 3 minutes ago, Chambana said: Eastern Indiana Western Ohio could be dealing with a significant icing situation, NAM been drilling that corridor hard with ice. Yeah probably time to start considering that solution. Could get tricky before it warms above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah probably time to start considering that solution. Could get tricky before it warms above freezing. It's been pretty consistent in that scenario. I'm thinking here it's going to be freezing rain, warming up enough to switch to rain, light snow on the back side. Kitchen sink damn near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah probably time to start considering that solution. Could get tricky before it warms above freezing. I'm holding my breath on this. The meteorologist in me wouldn't mind this solution for scientific/research/experience reasons, but a widespread ice storm on the scale the NAM has the potential to be destructive. I have family planning to travel that weekend as well, so that makes it personal as well. We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 This is reminding me a lot of last weekend but this one could be a little more exciting on how we get to the total at the end. There will be some blowing of the snow to deal with saturday. Last storm it just piled straight up. Thats a rarity in these parts near the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 This GFS run is even further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 We have a good 2 inch snowfall remaining across much of central IN with bitterly cold air poised to flow through the area tonight into tomorrow. I just wonder how much that might retard northward WAA despite what current models say. 00z runs tonight when we finally start to ingest some data should be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 38 minutes ago, geddyweather said: I'm holding my breath on this. The meteorologist in me wouldn't mind this solution for scientific/research/experience reasons, but a widespread ice storm on the scale the NAM has the potential to be destructive. I have family planning to travel that weekend as well, so that makes it personal as well. We shall see... GFS and NAM are worlds apart for central OH. GFS would be a quick hit of sleet and freezing rain turning quickly to rain... NAM would be a significant ice event if not flat out icestorm before the switch. Looks like the teams are GFS/Euro vs. NAM/GGEM. I've read the nam handles these low level thermal issues better than the gfs... but one of these has to start budging soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 5 minutes ago, buckeye said: GFS and NAM are worlds apart for central OH. GFS would be a quick hit of sleet and freezing rain turning quickly to rain... NAM would be a significant ice event if not flat out icestorm before the switch. Looks like the teams are GFS/Euro vs. NAM/GGEM. I've read the nam handles these low level thermal issues better than the gfs... but one of these has to start budging soon. Yeah, still quite the spread. Like always it'll take time to iron things out. I think it goes without saying though that a NAM style solution would produce vastly different impacts for that region versus a GFS style solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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