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December 16-18 Winter Storm Threat


Hoosier

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59 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lots of snow on the ground and bitter cold temps to start, I'm liking the potential with this. Even if it does rain, the cold rushes in so fast it would merely soak right into the deep snowpack. 

Good season to have sleds... My son has a $20.00 a day habit out on the glacier surrounding the house. Stacked snow piles were leaking water into the lots last night with an icy glacier out flow from them. 

 

With such a already high water content which has now frozen into a groundcicle of number 3 snow pack. Best case scenario is on the ground for our region to stay winter like. No towels till the HRRR is released the AM of.

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I disagree with that rant above. Just a few years ago, that was the case -- models weren't as accurate and precip was overdone. Accuracy had taken a leap in the last 2 to 3 years. I bet the track shown right now is going to verify. This isn't 2006 where a storm wobbles 200 miles in 12 hours.

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4 minutes ago, Jonger said:

I disagree with that rant above. Just a few years ago, that was the case -- models weren't as accurate and precip was overdone. Accuracy had taken a leap in the last 2 to 3 years. I bet the track shown right now is going to verify. This isn't 2006 where a storm wobbles 200 miles in 12 hours.

The problem is that when that graphic was broadcast, there wasn't unanimous model agreement on precip amounts for Chicago. And even if there was, details like that can always change when you are 3 or more days out... sometimes rather dramatically.

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17 minutes ago, Jonger said:

I disagree with that rant above. Just a few years ago, that was the case -- models weren't as accurate and precip was overdone. Accuracy had taken a leap in the last 2 to 3 years. I bet the track shown right now is going to verify. This isn't 2006 where a storm wobbles 200 miles in 12 hours.

I think the rant was more targeted to the Brant Miller's, relying on one model from one run without considering what else may happen and then broadcasting it.  

I know it's done when my parents call me to tell me we're having 16" of snow.  That's the problem.  

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Hi all,

Not sure this is the right place for this, but I'll ask anyway. I have an important meeting scheduled in Chicago - at the airport (fly in, fly out type of thing) on Friday. About a dozen folks coming in from around the country. Meeting is 10 to 3 with everyone's flights leaving around 5 p.m. Assuming the airlines don't do mass cancellations, what do you suspect the weather will be that afternoon?

Former TV met here, but long time out of the industry and haven't had time the look at data. thoughts?

The agency we are working with is in Chicago so didn't have much choice in location...

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5 minutes ago, seaWA said:

Hi all,

Not sure this is the right place for this, but I'll ask anyway. I have an important meeting scheduled in Chicago - at the airport (fly in, fly out type of thing) on Friday. About a dozen folks coming in from around the country. Meeting is 10 to 3 with everyone's flights leaving around 5 p.m. Assuming the airlines don't do mass cancellations, what do you suspect the weather will be that afternoon?

Former TV met here, but long time out of the industry and haven't had time the look at data. thoughts?

The agency we are working with is in Chicago so didn't have much choice in location...

There's a chance it could get dicey by late afternoon.  Really depends on where that initial band of snow lays out, but there should be some decent rates in it.

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, over toward Indy as well.  Climo says you shouldn't expect as much as Chicago/Detroit, but it's been a particularly glaring difference as of late.

I grew up near the area I'm living in now, and I'm old enough to remember the bad periods back in the late 80s and into the 90s.  I remember a good storm sometime in the late 80s and another one around the mid 90s, but besides that, a 6" snow seemed huge to me.  I had never seen anything close to the January 1999 blizzard until it happened.  Ever since then, it's been a pretty good stretch of storms... even while I was living in that relative snow hell that is LAF.


That's kind of how I was in the Blizzard of 1999. I legitimately believe the last 10"+ snow storm before that at Detroit was in 1992, and I was too young to really remember that. Since then, have been a bunch,  the 90's were terrible for snow.

Heck, 2014 had two of them within the span of a week.

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Main low on the GFS has trended south run to run for the last 4 runs in a row, at this rate might not even see much mix/rain out of this one. Oddly enough though the main WAA snow band has inched north a hair each of those 4 runs.


Indeed that's the case.

The 0z GGEM came south with the area of snow.
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7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The 0z ECMWF continues to have the main snows north of all other guidance.

In addition to that, it is much drier overall for most places.

Yep.  Advisory level snows from MN to parts of MI.  Pretty much a non-event south of that.  Pretty lol worthy if this solution ends up being correct given all the potential, and all the various model output we've seen over the past several days.  

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16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The 0z ECMWF continues to have the main snows north of all other guidance.

In addition to that, it is much drier overall for most places.

Not like we haven't seen that show play out over and over. I would toss the Euro's QPF as being complete garbage at this point.

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Can't wait for another inch while areas to the north and east get 6-8. But I guess this is how WAA snows normally own out. I have only ever seen them trend north as the event closes in, our saving grace was the surface low itself, but given the extremely progressive pattern, it looks like, at least for folks west, that the surface low won't have much associated precipitation.  

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