cyclone77 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 This looks familiar lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 That next week, last weeks or the the week before? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 7 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: That next week, last weeks or the the week before? lol Haha, yep. I guess we'll see what happens this time. Wondering if one of those east/west death bands sets up somewhere with such extreme WAA. If one develops I can only imagine the kind of rates that would be possible given the setup. Gonna be fun to watch to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 We so desperately need some blocking to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 29 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: GFS a tick north with the WAA wing precip late Fri. Sharp gradient through the DMX/DVN cwas much like last system. Northeast IL buried again. The Euro has been much further north with the WAA wing, more towards MN into WI, so we'll see if the GFS continues to trend towards that in coming solutions. Not sure what to make of that. Given the airmass in place and dislodging it, my first thought is that it seems odd for the WAA wing precip to end up so far north (like the brunt missing N IL) and I wonder if those northern solutions nudge south in time. But I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Not sure what to make of that. Given the airmass in place and dislodging it, my first thought is that it seems odd for the WAA wing precip to end up so far north (like the brunt missing N IL) and I wonder if those northern solutions nudge south in time. But I could be wrong. I agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Canadian model north, similar to Euro. While outside the time frame for the NAM, it is appearing to take a similar path as the GFS to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Not sure what to make of that. Given the airmass in place and dislodging it, my first thought is that it seems odd for the WAA wing precip to end up so far north (like the brunt missing N IL) and I wonder if those northern solutions nudge south in time. But I could be wrong. If the Euro continues to remain north I'll be a bit worried. The new GEM is a little north with with it as well, although it was with the 00z as well. On the plus side the NAM is further south with the WAA wing. It did well with the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Ukie came in north and tracks thru far NE Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Ukie came in north and tracks thru far NE Missouri.Not really much in the way of conclusions can be drawn with the data that's available. Precip data only available through 12z Friday and then only 24 hour increments after. FWIW sfc low track is fairly similar to the 12z op GFS.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 That is a long precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 Wondering how much of an ice event this ultimately turns out to be. Still early and subject to change but at this point, precip doesn't look too high in the transition zone. That would keep ice amounts from getting too high but the flip side in that scenario is that there would be virtually no wasted precip/run off and you'd have extremely efficient accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Euro nearly identical to the 00z through 84. WAA wing way up in Minnie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Through 90 best WAA snows from MSP to Green Bay/Milwaukee.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 Surface low track looks fairly GFS like though (maybe a little south?). First thing to iron out will be the location of the initial band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Euro looking like a progressive POS for the most part. Best part of the system is the WAA precip to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Looks like our best shot of a big storm out of this setup will be if that secondary batch of energy can take advantage of the tremendous baroclinicy left behind the first wave. Sure looks like it wants to blow up something big in the 108-114hr range down south. Never quite gets it done though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 The EuroWX map, which tries to account for ratios and also mixing I believe, has 6-10" in northeast IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 I may be missing something...but if the Euro has a weaker storm, why is the precip so far north? You'd think that a weaker storm would not cut as much, therefore keeping the precip further south. Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 9 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: I may be missing something...but if the Euro has a weaker storm, why is the precip so far north? You'd think that a weaker storm would not cut as much, therefore keeping the precip further south. Hmmm... The very shallow arctic air will be harder to displace at the surface, so it hangs up the surface baroclinicy much further to the south. The strongest 850mb frontogenesis is up over the MN/IA border, and then propagates eastward from there. That push of warmth above the surface makes it pretty far north due to the strength and longevity of it. Strong WAA at 850 is already ongoing over the central Plains at 18z Thu, a full 24hrs ahead of the WAA event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The very shallow arctic air will be harder to displace at the surface, so it hangs up the surface baroclinicy much further to the south. The strongest 850mb frontogenesis is up over the MN/IA border, and then propagates eastward from there. That push of warmth above the surface makes it pretty far north due to the strength and longevity of it. Strong WAA at 850 is already ongoing over the central Plains at 18z Thu, a full 24hrs ahead of the WAA event. Thanks - makes sense. Not necessarily IMBY focused...but all else being equal, you would think the odds would favor a more wound up storm, given the strong temp gradient. In this case, though, the strong surface temp gradient seems to hurt things (strangely enough), as the surface and 850 temp gradients aren't aligned. Still time for some changes, but at this point we're not too far away from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Gil Sebenste has a good discussion, rant, and caveats regarding the upcoming system. http://weather.admin.niu.edu/forecast.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 11 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The very shallow arctic air will be harder to displace at the surface, so it hangs up the surface baroclinicy much further to the south. The strongest 850mb frontogenesis is up over the MN/IA border, and then propagates eastward from there. That push of warmth above the surface makes it pretty far north due to the strength and longevity of it. Strong WAA at 850 is already ongoing over the central Plains at 18z Thu, a full 24hrs ahead of the WAA event. I guess my question would be if the elevated boundary actually makes it so far north. There is a decent LLJ but it's not overly impressive out there, with the better focus being farther south. Something just seems a bit off, but maybe it's me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 IWX sounds bullish on Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 39 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Gil Sebenste has a good discussion, rant, and caveats regarding the upcoming system. http://weather.admin.niu.edu/forecast.txt That was awesome. Completely agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Wash rinse repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 18z NAM has ice ice baby for central Illinois, much of Indiana (possibly skirting Hoosier), north central Kentucky and southwest Ohio. This is at hour 84 of the 12k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 It's not even close to freezing in a lot of that freezing rain area at the end of the run (temps in the low or mid 20s in some cases). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Not sure who Gil S. follows but I haven't seen any met in Chicagoland post a map of the GFS and say that's a forecast. If he's trying to control non professional over hyping on social media platforms- good luck with that. Me, I'm going to enjoy my 18" and be happy with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 7 minutes ago, Baum said: Not sure who Gil S. follows but I haven't seen any met in Chicagoland post a map of the GFS and say that's a forecast. If he's trying to control non professional over hyping on social media platforms- good luck with that. Me, I'm going to enjoy my 18" and be happy with it. Gilbert has been a very respectable forecaster for a long time, posts daily forecasts and discussions for Dekalb, Naperville, and some other locations. He probably has Brant Miller in mind, posting snowfall amounts for a non-sampled system down to tenths of an inch. Not professional and people like him are the reason mets get a bad rep cause he won't even bother verifying this, I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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