WxMatt21 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 3 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: Man can we ever get anything down here in central indiana? U guys r so lucky and spoiled. Meh...we'll see how spoiled we are once this system passes. I can do without the rain/ice, thank you very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Its just going to be plain boring rain. I guarantee it just works that way for us. Its cold for a few days 20-30 degrees then when a big system comes in it warms up rains for a day rinse repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 This run does give us some 3-4 inch love on the backside (no pun intended). 7 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said: Meh...we'll see how spoiled we are once this system passes. I can do without the rain/ice, thank you very much! Yes, no Ice. We've been pretty lucky recently considering. Plus I sold my old generator this summer so now it's bound to happen lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 This run does give us some 3-4 inch love on the backside (no pun intended). Yes, no Ice. We've been pretty lucky recently considering. Plus I sold my old generator this summer so now it's bound to happen lol.If I never saw another ice storm in my life I would be happy. OT for this system but to go along with the theme, we may see an over performer tomorrow here. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 7 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: Its just going to be plain boring rain. I guarantee it just works that way for us. Its cold for a few days 20-30 degrees then when a big system comes in it warms up rains for a day rinse repeat Still time for it to trend better but yeah, not looking good down there. I actually think that's a good way of playing the expectations game... go in expecting nothing so that you can be surprised if you do get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 Probably too far out to be talking about this but anyway, there are some decent frontogenesis signals on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I wouldn't be shocked if it trended atleast a little south, with the arctic air in place so soon before it hits. Anythings possible though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Still time for it to trend better but yeah, not looking good down there. I actually think that's a good way of playing the expectations game... go in expecting nothing so that you can be surprised if you do get something. Great advice from the former LAF King of Pingers I don't expect much out of these storms this early in the winter down here so I'm always surprised. Now when it does it in the middle of January, that's another story. We usually do better with clippers down here anyway which btw, we haven't had a good clipper run down here since you and ChicagoWX moved. I'll take a surprise couple of inches tomorrow. Back to this weekend the GFS is trending ever so slightly with a less northward expanse of the warm air. If that keeps up could increase our chances for something decent on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Alek, come back. I think I'll have a snowblower for this late weeks 8" I'm getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 Pulling some forecast soundings off the GFS and finding some extremely impressive DGZ depths... like 400+ mb deep especially north in MN/WI. Nothing to sneeze at farther south also, especially early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 00z GFS with another impressive run overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 GFS still juiced. Looks like Friday night-Saturday morning in the western lakes followed by a second system saturday midday. Seems to be splitting the systems again. Crazy winds on Sunday IN / OH/ MI Still some crazy amounts IA east to MI/extreme N IN and OH. If there's something there this weekend, which it seems, this is a wild start to the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 Sorry for an imby post but I've never seen anything like that run...verbatim, a good 10" of snow followed by an inch of rain and then ending as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z GFS with another impressive run overall. 0z GGEM doesn't look bad either albeit weaker, its cooler and slightly further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Would expect to see some hydro outlooks in some areas if GFS verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Sorry for an imby post but I've never seen anything like that run...verbatim, a good 10" of snow followed by an inch of rain and then ending as snow. Yuck! Imagine the glacier you will have with what snow is left though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Sorry for an imby post but I've never seen anything like that run...verbatim, a good 10" of snow followed by an inch of rain and then ending as snow. Imagine if it ends up being mostly snow, some areas back to the northwest get absolutely destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 The 0Z GFS would one of the weirdest events I think we could imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: The 0Z GFS would one of the weirdest events I think we could imagine. Yeah, it gives a lot of areas a significant thump of snow, followed by a ton of rain, and then more snow & a drastic temp drop too. Imagine what a mess that would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 12 minutes ago, blackrock said: Yuck! Imagine the glacier you will have with what snow is left though... Hard to imagine what the aftermath would look like if it actually played out that way. That particular outcome though is just so hard to pull off that I probably would be doubting it 24 hours out, let alone 96+ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just to exemplify some of the craziness on that GFS run. Fort Wayne gets around 6" of snow, then it's pushing 60F about 18 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 23 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Just to exemplify some of the craziness on that GFS run. Fort Wayne gets around 6" of snow, then it's pushing 60F about 18 hours later. How about the fact that the GFS is predicting 16 at 00z Saturday there on the onset of the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 00z Euro is "relatively" ho hum. Not the huge event like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z Euro is "relatively" ho hum. Not the huge event like the GFS. Hard to get a read on the Euro because it does have a decent amount of QPF with the WAA stuff but the ratios are definitely not 10:1. Probably closer to 15:1 or even higher especially initially. What happens after that is a convoluted mess, but the Euro was like that with the last system right up to the day of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 10 minutes ago, Stebo said: Hard to get a read on the Euro because it does have a decent amount of QPF with the WAA stuff but the ratios are definitely not 10:1. Probably closer to 15:1 or even higher especially initially. What happens after that is a convoluted mess, but the Euro was like that with the last system right up to the day of the system. It's a complex upper level setup so who knows how the nuances will play out. A couple things we can say with high confidence is that this looks pretty prolonged and there will be a nice LLJ feeding in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just now, Hoosier said: It's a complex upper level setup so who knows how the nuances will play out. A couple things we can say with high confidence is that this looks pretty prolonged and there will be a nice LLJ feeding in. Yeah and I think the WAA snows will yield nicely, what happens after that is anyone's guess at this point. Most models are advertising at least warning criteria WAA snows for most along and north of 80, beyond that anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 What ever happens Saturday we are starting with a pre-existing glacier snowpack with nearly 1 inch of water in it. So even if gfs panned out, we are adding lots of snow then rain then a flash freeze to that. The all snow scenarios are much preferred, but will be interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 GFS map making rounds on social media. People already freaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 GFS remarkably consistent in the past few runs with Friday/Friday evening event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 GFS a tick north with the WAA wing precip late Fri. Sharp gradient through the DMX/DVN cwas much like last system. Northeast IL buried again. The Euro has been much further north with the WAA wing, more towards MN into WI, so we'll see if the GFS continues to trend towards that in coming solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.