Stebo Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Euro has a nice WAA push and then overrunning precip afterwards. It is cheap with the QPF but we all know how that is. With this setup and a wide open gulf I would expect probably double the .5-.75 it is showing right now, especially considering how prolonged it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 11 minutes ago, Stebo said: Euro has a nice WAA push and then overrunning precip afterwards. It is cheap with the QPF but we all know how that is. With this setup and a wide open gulf I would expect probably double the .5-.75 it is showing right now, especially considering how prolonged it will be. Even .5-.75 would be pretty nice considering there's a pretty good chance of decent ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Will be visiting Oak Park Thurs-Sun. Is this still looking like an all or mostly snow event in Chicagoland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Will be visiting Oak Park Thurs-Sun. Is this still looking like an all or mostly snow event in Chicagoland? At the very least, accumulating snow looks likely to start. What happens afterward largely depends on system evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, Hoosier said: At the very least, accumulating snow looks likely to start. What happens afterward largely depends on system evolution. Thanks. I am hoping for mostly snow, obviously. Seems a trend to less amped and if it is moving into the arctic air you'd think it would be hard to budge and that the overrunning could be awesome even with a fairly weak system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Expect more significant changes. Still a lot of run-to-run variability because of the very complex evolution of the wave(s) out in the E Pac before the system makes landfall and a lack of sampling to go with it. There are no less than 3 vort maxes that interact with each other before more or less phasing and coming ashore. The southern vort max has been trending slower and the PV in Canada has trended faster with its evolution over the past couple of runs. Just a 6-12 hour timing difference makes for a considerably different outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I suspect the high pressure in canada helps to split this up into something similar to what we experienced this past weekend, with a multi staged event. It's the only thing that has remained constant over the last 1/2 dozen or so runs. I would favor a southward trend in this though vs. where the system is showing now, which would produce a snowier event, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 8 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Expect more significant changes. Still a lot of run-to-run variability because of the very complex evolution of the wave(s) out in the E Pac before the system makes landfall and a lack of sampling to go with it. There are no less than 3 vort maxes that interact with each other before more or less phasing and coming ashore. The southern vort max has been trending slower and the PV in Canada has trended faster with its evolution over the past couple of runs. Just a 6-12 hour timing difference makes for a considerably different outcome. Looks like another 3-4 days before that comes ashore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I like how pretty much all the gfs ensemble members are tossing down a 1"+ qpf total in the subforum area with this for several runs now, still too far out to get hyped though, will be quite a while before actual tracks or ptypes can ever be figured out yet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Looks like another 3-4 days before that comes ashore? Right. It comes ashore at tau 90, which is a nightmare forecasting scenario if you're in a p-type transition zone. It's literally snowing in Chicago 12 hours later on the latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 13 minutes ago, smoof said: I like how pretty much all the gfs ensemble members are tossing down a 1"+ qpf total in the subforum area with this for several runs now, still too far out to get hyped though, will be quite a while before actual tracks or ptypes can ever be figured out yet lol. Now that is amounts I can see being more believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 3 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Right. It comes ashore at tau 90, which is a nightmare forecasting scenario if you're in a p-type transition zone. It's literally snowing in Chicago 12 hours later on the latest runs. I would think, at least for Chicago that the first period would be a high ratio fluffy snow. If there is a mix wouldn't it likely come later if the low goes west/north of Chicago? If not I would think all frozen. On the other hand I live in an area prone to extreme cold air damming, so I don't know how quickly you scour out arctic air in Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Was brutal. The one time I have ever slid into a ditch, Tollway's were fine, side roads were a nightmare Were you in the area in Dec (08 or 09?) for the big ice storm? I remember sitting in the dark watching the blue glow from a substation fire to the north of me somewhere. edit: Dec 18-19, 2008 https://www.weather.gov/arx/dec1808 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Would love to see MN cash in on one of these storms. Where my cutters at? Enough of this Iowa to Detroit stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: I would think, at least for Chicago that the first period would be a high ratio fluffy snow. If there is a mix wouldn't it likely come later if the low goes west/north of Chicago? If not I would think all frozen. On the other hand I live in an area prone to extreme cold air damming, so I don't know how quickly you scour out arctic air in Chicago There's no natural CAD mechanism, so it can go away pretty quickly in the right setup (i.e. those wound up solutions that were being shown earlier). Track/strength will be everything, but at this point it's hard to imagine this not warranting some winter headline for the city (even a warmer/change to rain scenario would still likely have the lag time with surfaces warming up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: There's no natural CAD mechanism, so it can go away pretty quickly in the right setup (i.e. those wound up solutions that were being shown earlier). Track/strength will be everything, but at this point it's hard to imagine this not warranting some winter headline for the city (even a warmer/change to rain scenario would still likely have the lag time with surfaces warming up). Yeah our cold air source would be winds out of the east or northeast out of Ontario and Quebec for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Interestingly, GFS brings 10" of snow into ORD within a matter of 12 hours - some significant rates.... (kuchera) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Was feeling some hope for central IA to have a shot at being plastered this weekend but as of the latest DSM package and GFS, it's looking like this one might do a repeat of the last one and nail the north and leave us an inch again. It's still early and the models will waft around but I'm very familiar with storm tracks being stuck in a particular pattern for months at a time so I'm going to guess a more northern track is a solution bearing higher probability ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 Pretty large area of 10-18" on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Welp. Overjuiced here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Pretty large area of 10-18" on the 18z GFS. Oh wow does look much stronger than 12z, even for these parts. Probably not gonna happen? Forgive my apparent novice but after decades of being a NWS site lurker and occasional model runs viewer I'm just starting to get deeper into how model runs work, accuracy and behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 Wild run. Some areas get like a foot of snow as well as ice and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Another wet heavy snow.... super. Temps at 52 at STL and 28 at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 For those of us who like living down here on the edge (Not!) it looks like 5 or 6 inches in 6 hours followed by an inch of Glacial melt water! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, RyanDe680 said: Another wet heavy snow.... super. Temps at 52 at STL and 28 at ORD. It could be a similar progression to the recent storm if this type of solution were to pan out... starts off with good ratios and then gets worse. We'll see though... still a lot to iron out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 Per GFS, temp in Chicago at onset (we're probably less than 96 hours away as mentioned earlier) is in the low to mid teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 For those of us who like living down here on the edge (Not!) it looks like 5 or 6 inches in 6 hours followed by an inch of Glacial melt water!Were in the Indiana screwhole. No good snows. No good storms. At least we get ice and sleet right?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 GFS 18z maintains the low in a similar position from its earlier runs (00z) starting to see a little agreement on that... looks like the freezing line went a little north on that run. Nice run for Wisconsin and Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, and Northern Illinois. Definitely a spread the wealth event for the same areas who have been hit 2 weekends in a row, the trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 27 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Wild run. Some areas get like a foot of snow as well as ice and rain. This area would be one of those areas. I am skeptical that it even gets that warm though especially if the low tracks south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Man can we ever get anything down here in central indiana? U guys r so lucky and spoiled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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