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December 16-18 Winter Storm Threat


Hoosier

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National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
308 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...
308 PM CST

Through Sunday...

Will be issuing a Winter Storm Warning for Lake and Porter
counties in Indiana for the likelihood of an intense band of lake
effect snow moving across northern portions of the counties later
this evening through the overnight hours. Up to 3 to 7 inches of
snow could fall where the most intense snow occurs, with snowfall
rates of 1"+ per hour likely. In association with or just behind
the most intense portion of the band, winds will gust from the
north-northwest to 35-40 mph, causing significant blowing and
drifting snow and substantial visibility reductions. Made no
changes to the Winter Weather Advisory and Wind Chill Advisories
for the remainder of the area.

Castro
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8 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
308 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...
308 PM CST

Through Sunday...

Will be issuing a Winter Storm Warning for Lake and Porter
counties in Indiana for the likelihood of an intense band of lake
effect snow moving across northern portions of the counties later
this evening through the overnight hours. Up to 3 to 7 inches of
snow could fall where the most intense snow occurs, with snowfall
rates of 1"+ per hour likely. In association with or just behind
the most intense portion of the band, winds will gust from the
north-northwest to 35-40 mph, causing significant blowing and
drifting snow and substantial visibility reductions. Made no
changes to the Winter Weather Advisory and Wind Chill Advisories
for the remainder of the area.

Castro

Yes!  Hope I'm not too far west.

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I just want to illustrate how things changed in the past 24-48 hours.  Here are the 48 hr model progs from 12z Thursday, valid at 12z today.

gfs_z500_mslp_us_9.png

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_3.png

GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

gem_z500_mslp_us_9.png

 

The general thought (at least among non-NAM models) was that this surface low near St. Louis would continue northeast as a sub 1000 mb low.  If you look at a current surface map, you see something quite different... a weaker/strung out pressure pattern.

These model runs were only 48 hours ago. It's a good example that things can sometimes change pretty substantially, even in today's model world.  This was not simply a case of the track/strength being on point and somebody's backyard ending up in a mini screw zone.  This was an error on a larger scale.

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Light snow started up a bit ago.  Nice dendrites.  Looks like it will be hit and miss for the next hour or two before the main band finally swings through.  Hoping for an inch of fluff, but looks like best shot at 1"+ will remain to the west where the bands are sort of stalled.  

Picked up 0.2" of snow and a glaze of freezing drizzle so far from this storm.  Bring on the cold.

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Probably the most insane blue norther I can remember.  Temp in San Angelo TX hit a record of 84 a short while ago.  They're still basking in the warmth at 80 with a nice southwest breeze.  HRRR takes them down to 19 degrees by Midnight!!  Pretty amazing.

34opjxj.jpg

That is 11/11/1911 caliber right there.

Anyways, super heavy snow right now as I'm right under that dark green banding right now.  The bad news is that it won't last long as it'll shift off to the east rather quickly.  I'll most likely pick up a quick inch from this out of the inch that I already got when the snow started.

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5 minutes ago, Natester said:

That is 11/11/1911 caliber right there.

Anyways, super heavy snow right now as I'm right under that dark green banding right now.  The bad news is that it won't last long as it'll shift off to the east rather quickly.  I'll most likely pick up a quick inch from this out of the inch that I already got when the snow started.

Yep.  In fact a met from fb mentioned they have a shot at a record low before midnight arrives, which would mean min/max in the same day, ala 1911. 

2" out of these bands today is a def win to be sure, I'd take that in a heartbeat lol.  :D

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43 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Light snow started up a bit ago.  Nice dendrites.  Looks like it will be hit and miss for the next hour or two before the main band finally swings through.  Hoping for an inch of fluff, but looks like best shot at 1"+ will remain to the west where the bands are sort of stalled.  

Picked up 0.2" of snow and a glaze of freezing drizzle so far from this storm.  Bring on the cold.

Things are winding down here. I don't know how to measure snow when it's totally wind-blown. More exposed surfaces have 0.5 to 2 inches on them but there are drifts all over the place that are about 4-8 inches deep. I'll say we did pretty well.

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22 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

Things are winding down here. I don't know how to measure snow when it's totally wind-blown. More exposed surfaces have 0.5 to 2 inches on them but there are drifts all over the place that are about 4-8 inches deep. I'll say we did pretty well.

 

Good to hear.  Looks like you guys are about to really get into the icebox behind the departing snow.  5 above in Ankeny already.

 

Nice 50-75 mile wide band of moderate snows from southeast Iowa down into eastern KS.  Probably near 1"/hr rates within it.  The trick is getting into the band and staying under it for awhile lol.  

 

Still getting bursts of snow here at times.  Just when it looks like it really wants to start ripping it shuts off.  Looking forward to the steadier snows in another 1-2hrs. :popcorn:

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I just want to illustrate how things changed in the past 24-48 hours.  Here are the 48 hr model progs from 12z Thursday, valid at 12z today.

gfs_z500_mslp_us_9.png

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_3.png

GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

gem_z500_mslp_us_9.png

 

The general thought (at least among non-NAM models) was that this surface low near St. Louis would continue northeast as a sub 1000 mb low.  If you look at a current surface map, you see something quite different... a weaker/strung out pressure pattern.

These model runs were only 48 hours ago. It's a good example that things can sometimes change pretty substantially, even in today's model world.  This was not simply a case of the track/strength being on point and somebody's backyard ending up in a mini screw zone.  This was an error on a larger scale.

We've been having a lot of those the past few seasons.

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35 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

HRRR did well again with the first wave, and if correct it looks interesting for the immediate Chicago area overnight.

Synoptic snows are lake enhanced, before pure LES takes over in NW. IN.

23ac0deeef82af0f5b6747f00f7714c8.png

00z run got even a little better for the immediate Illinois shore, with more 6+ amounts on that Kuchera map.  Will be interesting to watch. Looks a little shifty at this point but if it decides to hang up somewhere very long, I may hop in the car for a late night run.  

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z run got even a little better for the immediate Illinois shore, with more 6+ amounts.  Will be interesting to watch. Looks a little shifty at this point but if it decides to hang up somewhere very long, I may hop in the car for a late night run.  

That HRRR map would have you right on the 6-7" threshold right?  

EDIT:  Ripping pretty nicely here now.  Unfortunately the band is now transient after being stalled in Iowa for hours lol.  

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