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December 16-18 Winter Storm Threat


Hoosier

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1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

It's the Russian hackers

Well I've seen some bizarre "malfunctions" on the Des Moines NWS site in the past 24 hours. At one point the local forecast page said it was 20 degrees warmer than it really was, and forecasted "rain with thunderstorms". It swiftly returned to normal for the most part but... creepy.

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19 minutes ago, Powerball said:

That's just wrong.

I find this one hard to believe even with a drier more northern solution. I think this is obv a bad run, I doubt itll be this dry everywhere. Airmass has, at least for the time being, saturated and it's snowing very lightly in DSM now. A dusting has accumulated. We'll already be at those Sunday NAM projected totals within a couple of hours most likely :)

Glad we broke out of that freezing drizzle/icing stage

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Picked up about 1/1000" pixie dust with a few weak bands that went through earlier.  Some freezing drizzle at times making it pretty slick.  WAA wing has already pulled north, so don't expect anything the rest of the night.  Even some of the drier models were too wet here.  Sure hope that defo tomorrow afternoon isn't too weak/transient.  

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10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Picked up about 1/1000" pixie dust with a few weak bands that went through earlier.  Some freezing drizzle at times making it pretty slick.  WAA wing has already pulled north, so don't expect anything the rest of the night.  Even some of the drier models were too wet here.  Sure hope that defo tomorrow afternoon isn't too weak/transient.  

Definitely an example of some mid level drying out there resulting in fzdz, as the entire column is safely below freezing.  Would expect that to translate eastward into the LOT cwa later on as some drier air aloft tries to move in.

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Definitely an example of some mid level drying out there resulting in fzdz, as the entire column is safely below freezing.  Would expect that to translate eastward into the LOT cwa later on as some drier air aloft tries to move in.

What phenomenon or effect is responsible you suppose, for the sudden outbreak of "hearty light snow" over central iowa, below the more typical-looking radar returns to the north? The snowfall is sort of heavier than the radar picture would lead one to believe, too. On DSM radar (attached below) it's showing up as a spikey radar bloom.

uyfgu.tiff

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yep - seeing widespread freezing drizzle under the dry slot now (DSM, MCI, STL, BMI). the less reliable awos sites reporting low vis and mist are likely seeing fzdz, too.

nice banding showing up in nrn IA, nrn IL and WI in response to mid-level frontogenesis through the dgz. the spc 700-500mb fronto product bears this out nicely. should see some ~1-hr rates that will last longer to the north of chicago. 

the upper jet coming in tomorrow evening should mean business. there will be some lake enhancement as the inverted trof/future arctic front over lake michigan swings through ern WI and nern IL (on its way to the lake effect belts) at around the same time. 

 

75ft.gif

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Must be one hell of a storm up in Wisconsin :lol:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
612 PM CST FRI DEC 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     STORM SURGE      2 SSE WAUKESHA          42.99N 88.22W
12/16/2016  M2.00 FT         WAUKESHA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER
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I got out of a Rogue One showing thirty minutes ago and it was drizzling heavily(only 18 degrees).  The car was iced over.  I had to scrape while wearing crocs and no gloves.  Even after the inside of the car heated up, the drizzle continued to instantly stick to the windshield as I drove home.  It recently turned to a light dusty snow.

I think I liked Rogue One better than TFA.

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